Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T06:58:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
1E 0x1efb…6cd9 sports 19 markets active 1h ago coverage 186d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$358 (+59%) realized +$358 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +15% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +4% what you keep after slip
Net edge+4%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate47%9W / 10L
Drawdown5%max
Avg bet$32per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$3
14 days−$3
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 78% +$357
economics 8% $0
other 5% $0
world 3% $0
politics 3% $0
tech 2% $0
crypto 1% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)+3.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -7.9% -16.7% 0% 0% -14.3%
≤30d 8 -6.9% -15.8% 0% 0% -13.4%
≤90d 10 -5.1% -14.1% 20% 0% -11.0%
all 19 +14.6% +3.7% 47% 32% +43.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +3.7% 32% +43.8%
10% -6.2% 32% +30.0%
15% -15.3% 32% +17.5%
20% -23.6% 32% +6.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 54% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +15% · $-wt +59% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +36% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$43 vs −$3 · ×13.65 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×12.28 per $1 lost it wins $12.28
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

186d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$358
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses9 / 10
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)19 / 19
History coverage186d
Avg bet$32
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown5%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 19 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Aurora win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 16 $7 $0 -0%
Will Solana Sierra be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? Jun 16 $5 −$3 -53%
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 11 $10 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee Jun 11 $9 $0 -1%
Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026? Jun 11 $7 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 10 $14 $0 -0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 10 $3 $0 -1%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 19 $13 $0 -0%
Octra FDV above $100M one day after launch? Apr 27 $24 $0 +2%
Jazz vs. Thunder Apr 07 $22 +$1 +3%
Capitals vs. Flyers Mar 12 $114 +$136 +120%
Avalanche vs. Stars Mar 08 $59 +$52 +89%
Thunder vs. Raptors Feb 27 $98 +$74 +75%
Bradley Braves vs. Southern Illinois Salukis Feb 19 $68 +$58 +85%
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? Feb 01 $38 $0 +0%
Rangers vs. Kings Jan 25 $18 −$18 -100%
Islanders vs. Predators Jan 10 $37 +$33 +89%
Pelicans vs. Bulls Jan 03 $11 −$11 -100%
Ravens vs. Bengals Dec 31 $47 +$32 +70%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Aurora win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL No 96¢ $7 1h
Will Aurora win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY No 96¢ $7 1h
Will Solana Sierra be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? SELL Yes $2 1h
Will Solana Sierra be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? BUY Yes $5 1h
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 100¢ $10 4d
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 100¢ $10 4d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee SELL No 94¢ $9 4d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee BUY No 94¢ $9 4d
Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026? SELL No 94¢ $7 4d
Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026? BUY No 94¢ $7 4d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $14 5d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $14 5d
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 95¢ $3 5d
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 95¢ $3 5d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? SELL No 97¢ $13 27d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? BUY No 97¢ $13 27d
Octra FDV above $100M one day after launch? BUY No 98¢ $24 55d
Jazz vs. Thunder BUY Thunder 97¢ $22 71d
Capitals vs. Flyers BUY Flyers 45¢ $114 96d
Avalanche vs. Stars BUY Avalanche 53¢ $59 101d
Thunder vs. Raptors BUY Thunder 57¢ $98 112d
Bradley Braves vs. Southern Illinois Salukis BUY Bradley Braves 54¢ $68 120d
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? BUY Yes 100¢ $38 139d
Rangers vs. Kings BUY Rangers 37¢ $18 146d
Islanders vs. Predators BUY Predators 53¢ $37 158d
Pelicans vs. Bulls BUY Pelicans 48¢ $11 166d
Ravens vs. Bengals BUY Ravens 59¢ $47 185d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 38 history records