Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T15:50:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1E 0x1ef8…8af7 other 44 markets active 2h ago coverage 426d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized −$2 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate33%14W / 29L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$48now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$3
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 50% −$1
other 17% $0
politics 15% +$1
crypto 9% $0
sports 5% $0
economics 2% $0
tech 2% $0
culture 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-10.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 11 -0.1% -9.6% 9% 0% -9.8%
≤90d 11 -0.1% -9.6% 9% 0% -9.8%
all 43 -1.5% -10.9% 33% 2% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.9% 2% -9.6%
10% -19.4% 0% -18.3%
15% -27.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -34.3% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 49% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.83 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.77 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

426d coverage
Net worth$48
Realized−$2
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses14 / 29
Open positions1
Markets (closed)43 / 44
History coverage426d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 43 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? No 96¢ 97¢ $47 $48 +$1 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 19 $43 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 18 $22 $0 -1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $42 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $2 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 08 $94 −$2 -2%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 04 $95 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 30 $44 +$1 +3%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 29 $40 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 28 $48 $0 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 28 $21 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 27 $48 $0 +0%
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 17 $1 $0 -3%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Jun 26 $6 −$1 -9%
Will Trump deport 1,250,000-1,500,000 people? Jun 25 $13 $0 +0%
Will the Conservative Party win the Canadian election by over 12%? Jun 24 $1 $0 +2%
Will Kim Moon-soo win 2nd place in the South Korean presidential elect Jun 05 $5 +$1 +11%
Will Bitcoin reach $125k in May? May 21 $14 $0 +2%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win Super Bowl 2026? May 16 $5 $0 +0%
Will Pacers vs. Warriors be the 2025 NBA Finals matchup? May 16 $19 $0 -1%
Will Lee Jae-myung win less than 35% of the vote in the South Korea el May 14 $14 $0 -0%
Will Estonia qualify for the Eurovision 2025 grand final? May 14 $1 −$1 -67%
Will the Liberal Party win the Canadian election by 0-3%? May 13 $15 $0 +0%
Will the number of federal employees decrease by less than 25,000 betw May 11 $15 $0 -0%
Will Sweden finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 10? May 11 $14 $0 -0%
Will Italy win Eurovision 2025? May 11 $1 $0 +10%
Will FIT-U win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the May 10 $14 $0 +0%
Will Edi Rama be the next Prime Minister of Albania after the 2025 ele May 10 $14 $0 +2%
Will Cavaliers vs. Warriors be the 2025 NBA Finals matchup? May 09 $15 $0 +0%
Will Frank McCourt buy TikTok? May 09 $14 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1500 and $1600 on May 9? May 08 $17 $0 -0%
Will Malta win Eurovision 2025? May 08 $18 $0 -0%
Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 07 $19 $0 +0%
Will the candidate from the New Reform Party win the South Korean Pres May 07 $18 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70k in May? May 06 $17 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2025 National League Championship? May 06 $1 $0 -14%
Will the New Democratic Party win the third most seats in the next Can May 05 $17 $0 +3%
Conservatives win majority in Canadian election? Apr 27 $17 $0 -1%
Will Ethereum reach $2200 in April? Apr 26 $16 $0 +1%
Ethereum all time high by June 30? Apr 25 $17 $0 +0%
Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2025? Apr 24 $17 $0 +0%
Will the Green Party win the third most seats in the next Canadian Ele Apr 22 $17 $0 +0%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2025? Apr 22 $17 $0 +0%
Will Trump announce Kevin Hassett as next Fed Chair? Apr 20 $17 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $47 1h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 82¢ $35 32h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 82¢ $7 32h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 82¢ $30 35h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 82¢ $12 35h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $22 44h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $22 45h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $11 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $32 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $42 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 2d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 28¢ $17 12d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 32¢ $16 15d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 32¢ $10 15d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 32¢ $44 15d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 55¢ $27 15d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 55¢ $18 15d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 55¢ $45 15d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 55¢ $50 15d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 55¢ $50 16d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 31¢ $2 21d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 31¢ $4 21d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 31¢ $44 21d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 31¢ $50 21d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 80¢ $22 21d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 80¢ $18 21d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 80¢ $5 21d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 78¢ $38 21d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 78¢ $5 21d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $47.53 · official $47.53 (match) · 131 history records