Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T14:00:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1E 0x1ef7…d00e other 349 markets active 1d ago coverage 235d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$218 (-7%) realized −$218 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate45%158W / 190L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day2.8pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit36%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$11
7 days+$16
14 days+$15
30 days+$22
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 77% −$168
sports 13% $0
politics 5% +$2
tech 2% −$1
economics 1% +$8
world 1% −$38
crypto 1% −$27
finance 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-16.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +112.9% +92.7% 67% 67% +46.4%
≤30d 31 +24.0% +12.2% 55% 52% +8.8%
≤90d 88 +9.9% -0.5% 50% 47% -21.0%
all 348 -7.8% -16.6% 45% 41% -16.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.6% 41% -16.3%
10% -24.6% 33% -24.3%
15% -31.9% 26% -31.6%
20% -38.5% 19% -38.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$5 · ×0.87 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.73 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

235d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$218
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses158 / 190
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)348 / 349
History coverage235d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day2.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit36%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 348 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 7¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-29%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 18 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $1 +$5 +310%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $4 +$7 +193%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 13 $5 +$4 +76%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $12 −$3 -28%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $1 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $3 +$4 +126%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 10 $7 +$1 +9%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $6 $0 +3%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics Jun 09 $4 +$2 +67%
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 09 $4 +$3 +79%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 07 $4 +$3 +73%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 06 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $2 −$2 -96%
San Diego Padres vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 04 $5 +$2 +45%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 04 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 04 $1 $0 -23%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $1 −$1 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $4 +$6 +161%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Tampa Bay Rays May 30 $6 −$6 -99%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 29 $4 +$6 +142%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 27 $2 $0 +17%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 26 $3 +$7 +257%
Houston Astros vs. Chicago Cubs May 24 $2 −$2 -99%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 24 $2 −$2 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 24 $3 −$3 -97%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 20 $2 −$1 -32%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 20 $2 $0 -2%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 20 $3 +$1 +19%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 20 $3 +$1 +29%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 19 $6 +$2 +40%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 19 $3 −$2 -46%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 18 $1 −$1 -96%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs Team Heretics (BO5) - VCT EMEA Playoffs May 17 $3 −$2 -99%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 15 $4 +$4 +102%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 14 $1 $0 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 14 $4 +$2 +61%
Spread: Pistons (-3.5) May 13 $4 −$3 -99%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? May 10 $2 −$2 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? May 10 $6 −$6 -98%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 7 to May 9, 2026? May 09 $7 −$1 -21%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? May 08 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? May 08 $4 +$6 +128%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? May 08 $2 −$2 -87%
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) May 06 $4 −$4 -100%
Baltimore Orioles vs. New York Yankees May 05 $3 +$1 +44%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Tampa Bay Rays May 05 $4 +$3 +83%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? May 04 $1 −$1 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? May 04 $2 +$3 +163%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? May 04 $4 $0 -7%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? May 04 $3 −$3 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 33¢ $4 30h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 42¢ $3 40h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 2d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 20¢ $1 4d
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Boston Red Sox 56¢ $5 4d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 4d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY No 80¢ $6 5d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $1 5d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 70¢ $7 5d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 30¢ $3 6d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 57¢ $6 6d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? SELL No 50¢ $7 7d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? BUY No 19¢ $2 7d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? BUY No 51¢ $5 7d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? SELL Yes 60¢ $6 7d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY Yes 56¢ $6 8d
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics BUY Milwaukee Brewers 59¢ $4 8d
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Houston Astros 55¢ $4 9d
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Atlanta Braves BUY Atlanta Braves 57¢ $4 9d
Games Total: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 68¢ $5 11d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? BUY Yes 21¢ $2 12d
San Diego Padres vs. Philadelphia Phillies SELL Philadelphia Phillies 98¢ $7 12d
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Atlanta Braves BUY Atlanta Braves 71¢ $5 12d
San Diego Padres vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY Philadelphia Phillies 67¢ $5 12d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $1 13d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 13d
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 15d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? SELL Yes 91¢ $9 15d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? BUY Yes 34¢ $4 15d
Los Angeles Angels vs. Tampa Bay Rays BUY Tampa Bay Rays 59¢ $6 17d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.71 · official $0.71 (match) · 814 history records