Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T04:57:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1E 0x1ef6…6bbd crypto 658 markets active 2h ago coverage 188d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$87 (-3%) realized −$87 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate49%325W / 333L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day6.9pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$35
7 days−$35
14 days−$30
30 days−$49
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$130
sports 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-14.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -24.3% -31.5% 40% 40% -39.4%
≤30d 82 -0.3% -9.8% 62% 60% -15.6%
≤90d 367 -0.2% -9.7% 64% 63% -12.6%
all 658 -5.0% -14.0% 49% 47% -12.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.0% 47% -12.7%
10% -22.2% 39% -21.1%
15% -29.7% 27% -28.7%
20% -36.6% 16% -35.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -13% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$3 · ×0.87 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.85 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

188d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$87
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses325 / 333
Open positions0
Markets (closed)658 / 658
History coverage188d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day6.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 658 Trades
no open positions (56 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 16 $13 −$8 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 16 $8 +$2 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 16 $8 +$2 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 16 $8 +$2 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 15 $15 −$2 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 15 $8 +$2 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$2 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 15 $15 −$12 -82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 15 $13 −$9 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 15 $14 −$11 -77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 04 $3 −$1 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 03 $13 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 03 $16 −$5 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 03 $7 +$3 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 03 $4 +$2 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 03 $7 +$3 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 03 $8 +$3 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 03 $3 −$2 -66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 03 $7 +$3 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 02 $10 −$3 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 02 $8 +$2 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 01 $8 −$8 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 01 $14 −$2 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 01 $8 +$2 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 01 $4 +$1 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 01 $9 +$2 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 01 $7 +$3 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 01 $8 +$2 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 01 $4 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 01 $4 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 01 $4 +$1 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 01 $3 +$2 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET May 31 $4 −$4 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET May 30 $4 −$4 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET May 29 $15 −$2 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET May 29 $4 +$1 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET May 29 $15 −$3 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET May 29 $12 −$5 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET May 29 $13 −$2 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET May 29 $7 +$3 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET May 29 $6 +$6 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET May 29 $15 −$3 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET May 29 $4 +$1 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET May 29 $8 +$2 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET May 29 $8 +$2 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET May 29 $8 +$3 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET May 29 $9 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET May 29 $4 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET May 29 $9 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET May 29 $4 +$2 +60%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET SELL Down 3¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $4 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $4 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET SELL Down 26¢ $2 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $4 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $4 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $3 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $4 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $4 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $4 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET SELL Up 38¢ $2 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $3 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET SELL Down 28¢ $1 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $3 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $3 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $3 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET SELL Down 39¢ $4 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $3 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $3 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $3 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $3 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET SELL Up 34¢ $3 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $3 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1778 history records