Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T00:21:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
1E 0x1ef3…c170 sports 5 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover
Total PnL −$2 (-0%) realized −$10 · open +$8
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +25% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +5% what you keep after slip
Net edge+5%after slip
Net WR75%break-even
Win rate75%3W / 1L
Drawdown43%max
Avg bet$363per market
Trades / day14.0pace
Fees−$14est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$258now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 72% +$253
other 28% +$92
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +75%
net ROI/market (all)+13.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +25.3% +13.3% 75% 75% +10.0%
≤30d 4 +25.3% +13.3% 75% 75% +10.0%
≤90d 4 +25.3% +13.3% 75% 75% +10.0%
all 4 +25.3% +13.3% 75% 75% +10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +13.3% 75% +10.0%
10% +2.5% 75% -0.5%
15% -7.4% 25% -10.2%
20% -16.5% 25% -19.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 51% · top 2 86% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +22% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +25% · $-wt +22% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$197 vs −$255 · ×0.77 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.32 per $1 lost it wins $2.32
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$258
Realized−$10
Unrealized+$8
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses3 / 1
Est. fees paid−$14
Open positions1
Markets (closed)4 / 5
History coverage1d
Avg bet$363
Trades / day14.0
Drawdown43%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 4 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-27? No 50¢ 52¢ $250 $258 +$8 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Panama vs. England: O/U 1.5 Jun 27 $255 −$255 -100%
Panama vs. England: O/U 2.5 Jun 27 $153 +$204 +134%
Panama vs. England: O/U 3.5 Jun 27 $907 +$304 +34%
Will England win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $250 +$84 +34%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 50¢ $250 12m
Panama vs. England: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 0¢ $1 1h
Panama vs. England: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 100¢ $357 1h
Panama vs. England: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 100¢ $1,113 1h
Panama vs. England: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 96¢ $98 1h
Panama vs. England: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 42¢ $153 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 99¢ $334 1h
Panama vs. England: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 74¢ $907 1h
Panama vs. England: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 27¢ $102 1h
Panama vs. England: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 56¢ $152 2h
Will England win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 74¢ $79 2h
Will England win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 74¢ $24 2h
Will England win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 74¢ $74 2h
Will England win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 74¢ $74 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $257.50 · official $257.50 (match) · 16 history records