Wallet analysis

2026-06-30T00:04:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
1E 0x1ef2…e7ac sports 66 markets active 1h ago coverage 35d
COPY-WORTHYcopy this sports specialistFresh edge
Total PnL +$284 (+14%) realized +$284 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +23% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +11% what you keep after slip
Net edge+11%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate52%33W / 30L
Drawdown20%max
Avg bet$31per market
Trades / day2.9pace
Fees−$25est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$187
7 days+$433
14 days+$607
30 days+$666
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 68% +$535
other 30% +$104
crypto 2% −$18
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)+11.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 +75.8% +59.1% 60% 60% +65.3%
≤30d 38 +40.1% +26.7% 58% 58% +40.9%
≤90d 63 +23.1% +11.4% 52% 52% +19.9%
all 63 +23.1% +11.4% 52% 52% +19.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +11.4% 52% +19.9%
10% +0.7% 51% +8.4%
15% -9.0% 48% -2.1%
20% -17.9% 43% -11.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +32% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +23% · $-wt +32% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late +50% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$39 vs −$22 · ×1.77 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.95 per $1 lost it wins $1.95
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

35d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$284
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses33 / 30
Est. fees paid−$25
Open positions0
Markets (closed)63 / 66
History coverage35d
Avg bet$31
Trades / day2.9
Drawdown20%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 63 Trades
no open positions (24 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance Jun 29 $31 +$39 +129%
Germany vs. Paraguay: Will the Match Go to a Penalty Shootout? Jun 29 $50 +$58 +117%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 29 $60 +$50 +84%
Wimbledon ATP: Yibing Wu vs Novak Djokovic Jun 29 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Novak Djokovic be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Jun 29 $44 −$14 -32%
Set Handicap: Djokovic (-2.5) vs Wu (+2.5) Jun 29 $21 −$21 -99%
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 AND Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 29 $38 +$83 +217%
South Africa vs. Canada: Team to Advance Jun 28 $32 −$32 -98%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Zizou Bergs vs Ugo Humbert Jun 28 $27 +$53 +199%
Panama vs. England: O/U 3.5 AND Croatia vs. Ghana: Ghana O/U 0.5 Jun 27 $32 +$74 +233%
Mallorca Championships: Ethan Quinn vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Jun 27 $38 +$34 +90%
Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals Jun 26 $30 −$29 -98%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $32 +$119 +367%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 3+ goals Jun 23 $28 −$28 -99%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 2+ goals Jun 23 $33 +$76 +234%
Michael Olise: 1+ goals Jun 22 $44 −$43 -98%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 Jun 22 $16 −$16 -97%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 21 $33 −$32 -99%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 AND Will Netherlands win on 2026-06 Jun 20 $50 +$84 +167%
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritz Jun 20 $29 +$30 +103%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 20 $34 +$46 +136%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $54 +$30 +56%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $33 +$21 +65%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Jun 17 $40 −$40 -99%
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $34 +$37 +109%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $40 +$19 +48%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $30 +$44 +150%
Michael Olise: 1+ goals Jun 16 $16 −$16 -98%
HSBC Championships: Cameron Norrie vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Jun 16 $22 +$24 +109%
Nottingham 2: Jaime Faria vs Zhizhen Zhang Jun 16 $15 −$15 -98%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $22 −$21 -98%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $19 +$41 +221%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $44 +$34 +78%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $33 +$31 +93%
Stuttgart Open: Alexander Bublik vs Taylor Fritz Jun 13 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $20 −$20 -98%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $28 +$14 +51%
Roland Garros ATP: Joao Fonseca vs Novak Djokovic May 29 $52 −$52 -99%
Roland Garros ATP: Alex de Minaur vs Jakub Mensik May 29 $12 +$40 +335%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 29 $10 +$2 +17%
Roland Garros ATP: Arthur Rinderknech vs Matteo Berrettini May 28 $101 −$53 -52%
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Roman Andres Burruchaga May 28 $40 +$14 +36%
Roland Garros ATP: Hubert Hurkacz vs Frances Tiafoe May 28 $19 −$18 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Jannik Sinner vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo May 28 $46 +$12 +27%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Francisco Giants May 27 $30 +$18 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET May 27 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET May 27 $35 −$7 -21%
Roland Garros ATP: Jan-Lennard Struff vs Jaime Faria May 27 $25 −$25 -98%
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-05-27? May 27 $55 +$17 +31%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance BUY Paraguay 43¢ $31 51m
Germany vs. Paraguay: Will the Match Go to a Penalty Shootout? SELL Yes 99¢ $108 51m
Germany vs. Paraguay: Will the Match Go to a Penalty Shootout? BUY Yes 45¢ $50 1h
Spread: Germany (-1.5) SELL Paraguay 99¢ $110 1h
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Paraguay 53¢ $60 3h
Wimbledon ATP: Yibing Wu vs Novak Djokovic BUY Yibing Wu 22¢ $31 4h
Will Novak Djokovic be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? SELL Yes 11¢ $30 4h
Set Handicap: Djokovic (-2.5) vs Wu (+2.5) BUY Djokovic 52¢ $21 4h
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 AND Spread: Brazil (-1.5) BUY 31¢ $38 7h
Will Novak Djokovic be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY Yes 15¢ $44 9h
South Africa vs. Canada: Team to Advance BUY South Africa 26¢ $32 34h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Zizou Bergs vs Ugo Humbert SELL Zizou Bergs 86¢ $80 36h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Zizou Bergs vs Ugo Humbert BUY Zizou Bergs 28¢ $27 37h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals AND Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY 33¢ $40 2d
Panama vs. England: O/U 3.5 AND Croatia vs. Ghana: Ghana O/U 0.5 BUY 29¢ $32 2d
Mallorca Championships: Ethan Quinn vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina BUY Alejandro Davidovich Fokina 52¢ $38 2d
Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals BUY Yes 21¢ $30 3d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 100¢ $151 4d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 21¢ $32 4d
Cristiano Ronaldo: 3+ goals BUY Yes 51¢ $28 6d
Cristiano Ronaldo: 2+ goals SELL Yes 99¢ $109 6d
Cristiano Ronaldo: 2+ goals BUY Yes 29¢ $33 6d
Michael Olise: 1+ goals BUY Yes 47¢ $44 7d
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 BUY Over $16 8d
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Uruguay 57¢ $33 8d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY 47¢ $34 9d
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritz SELL Taylor Fritz 89¢ $60 9d
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 AND Will Netherlands win on 2026-06 BUY 37¢ $50 9d
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritz BUY Taylor Fritz 43¢ $29 9d
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) SELL Brazil 94¢ $79 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 112 history records