Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T16:22:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1E 0x1ef1…8b77 crypto 476 markets active 2d ago coverage 114d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$265 (-3%) realized −$265 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate82%391W / 85L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day5.8pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$77
14 days−$162
30 days−$66
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 74% −$129
weather 25% −$122
politics 1% −$48
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-12.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 32 -40.3% -45.9% 41% 28% -42.9%
≤30d 165 -5.8% -14.7% 77% 34% -11.1%
≤90d 322 -11.2% -19.6% 76% 20% -16.0%
all 476 -3.5% -12.7% 82% 24% -12.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.7% 24% -12.9%
10% -21.0% 12% -21.3%
15% -28.6% 5% -28.9%
20% -35.6% 4% -35.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
69% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$9 · ×0.14 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.63 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

114d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$265
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)82%
Wins / losses391 / 85
Open positions0
Markets (closed)476 / 476
History coverage114d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day5.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 476 Trades
no open positions (26 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 15 $6 +$4 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 14 $6 +$4 +72%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June Jun 12 $2 −$1 -36%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 33°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 $0 +20%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 74-75°F on June 11? Jun 12 $1 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 11 $18 −$18 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 11 $16 +$3 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 11 $14 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 11 $14 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 11 $12 +$2 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 11 $9 +$3 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 11 $9 +$1 +9%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 11 $64 −$55 -86%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 66-67°F on June Jun 03 $129 −$85 -66%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 1? Jun 01 $99 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 1? Jun 01 $25 +$3 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on May 31? May 31 $120 +$3 +3%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 17°C on May 30? May 31 $85 +$3 +4%
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on May 30? May 31 $32 +$1 +3%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 30? May 30 $5 +$5 +104%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 15? May 30 $5 +$1 +29%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on May 29? May 29 $10 +$4 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET May 29 $6 −$6 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET May 29 $50 +$3 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET May 29 $15 −$15 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET May 29 $5 −$3 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET May 29 $14 +$2 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET May 28 $100 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET May 28 $15 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET May 28 $110 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET May 28 $110 +$5 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $0 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET BUY Down 26¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET BUY Down 26¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 26¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 26¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 26¢ $0 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 26¢ $0 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 26¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 26¢ $0 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 26¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 26¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 26¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 26¢ $0 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 26¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 26¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $0 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1064 history records