Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T11:18:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
1E 0x1eee…9ee9 other 27 markets active 1h ago coverage 755d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$1,054 (+23%) realized +$1,076 · open −$22
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate48%12W / 13L
Drawdown11%max
Avg bet$173per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit56%portable
Net worth$259now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$219
7 days+$219
14 days+$219
30 days+$219
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 60% +$151
politics 17% +$599
crypto 16% +$47
sports 7% +$257
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-3.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +212.2% +182.4% 100% 100% +182.4%
≤30d 1 +212.2% +182.4% 100% 100% +182.4%
≤90d 1 +212.2% +182.4% 100% 100% +182.4%
all 25 +6.5% -3.7% 48% 32% +12.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.7% 32% +12.6%
10% -12.9% 24% +1.8%
15% -21.3% 24% -8.0%
20% -29.0% 20% -17.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 41% · top 2 66% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +212% too few recent
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt +24% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late +23% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
6.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$109 vs −$18 · ×6.06 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×5.59 per $1 lost it wins $5.59
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

755d coverage
Net worth$259
Realized+$1,076
Unrealized−$22
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses12 / 13
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions2
Markets (closed)25 / 27
History coverage755d
Avg bet$173
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown11%
Kalshi-fit56%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 25 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will a team from LPL (China) win MSI 2026? Yes 31¢ 28¢ $277 $256 −$21 (-8%)
Will a team from LCS (North America) win MSI 2026? Yes $4 $3 −$1 (-26%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $103 +$219 +212%
Will 风无向 Web3Feng win the Synthetix trading competition? Nov 07 $510 −$48 -10%
Will Hyperliquid hit $70 in 2025? Nov 07 $307 +$13 +4%
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 in November? Nov 07 $517 +$21 +4%
Will Trump say "Happy Halloween" this week? (October 27 - November 2) Oct 31 $743 +$543 +73%
Will Zcash flip Monero by December 31? Oct 30 $1,458 +$317 +22%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Oct 30 $44 +$1 +3%
Will Anyone’s Legend win LoL Worlds 2025? Oct 27 $30 +$1 +4%
Cardano ETF in 2025? Oct 27 $7 $0 -4%
Will Hanwha Life Esports win LoL Worlds 2025? Oct 27 $81 −$24 -30%
Will Gen.G win LoL Worlds 2025? Oct 27 $102 −$9 -8%
NFL Sunday Week 8: Will an underdog win? Oct 27 $151 +$61 +40%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin in 2025? Oct 26 $17 −$2 -10%
Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during Malaysia events on October Oct 26 $3 −$2 -84%
dogwifhat on the sphere in 2025? Oct 26 $5 −$1 -20%
Ethereum Up or Down - October 25, 11PM ET Oct 26 $30 +$65 +214%
Ethereum Up or Down - October 25, 10PM ET Oct 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Will FlyQuest win LoL Worlds 2025? Oct 25 $67 −$67 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - October 24, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Oct 25 $21 −$18 -88%
Ethereum Up or Down - October 24, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Oct 25 $27 −$27 -100%
Will Movistar KOI win LoL Worlds 2025? Oct 25 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Donald Trump win the popular vote in the 2024 Presidential Electi Nov 06 $27 +$54 +202%
Will Dallas Mavericks be 2023-24 NBA Champions? May 26 $1 +$2 +131%
Vancouver Canucks win the 2024 Stanley Cup? May 22 $28 −$28 -100%
Will ETH hit $4k by Friday? May 22 $114 +$13 +11%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will a team from LPL (China) win MSI 2026? BUY Yes 29¢ $6 1h
Will a team from LCS (North America) win MSI 2026? BUY Yes $4 1h
Will a team from LPL (China) win MSI 2026? BUY Yes 30¢ $38 19h
Will a team from LPL (China) win MSI 2026? BUY Yes 31¢ $68 23h
Will a team from LPL (China) win MSI 2026? BUY Yes 31¢ $31 23h
Will a team from LPL (China) win MSI 2026? BUY Yes 31¢ $53 23h
Will a team from LPL (China) win MSI 2026? BUY Yes 31¢ $0 23h
Will a team from LPL (China) win MSI 2026? BUY Yes 31¢ $9 23h
Will a team from LPL (China) win MSI 2026? BUY Yes 31¢ $5 23h
Will a team from LPL (China) win MSI 2026? BUY Yes 31¢ $10 23h
Will a team from LPL (China) win MSI 2026? BUY Yes 31¢ $39 23h
Will a team from LPL (China) win MSI 2026? BUY Yes 31¢ $19 23h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI SELL T1 100¢ $322 23h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 32¢ $103 38h
Will 风无向 Web3Feng win the Synthetix trading competition? SELL Yes 54¢ $58 219d
Will Hyperliquid hit $70 in 2025? SELL No 84¢ $320 219d
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 in November? SELL No 89¢ $538 219d
Will Hyperliquid hit $70 in 2025? BUY No 84¢ $62 220d
Will Hyperliquid hit $70 in 2025? BUY No 84¢ $5 220d
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 in November? BUY No 86¢ $344 220d
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 in November? BUY No 84¢ $13 221d
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 in November? BUY No 84¢ $5 221d
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 in November? BUY No 84¢ $32 221d
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 in November? BUY No 84¢ $16 221d
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 in November? BUY No 84¢ $5 221d
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 in November? BUY No 85¢ $52 221d
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 in November? BUY No 85¢ $50 221d
Will 风无向 Web3Feng win the Synthetix trading competition? BUY Yes 74¢ $79 221d
Will Hyperliquid hit $70 in 2025? BUY No 80¢ $240 221d
Will Trump say "Happy Halloween" this week? (October 27 - November 2) SELL Yes 25¢ $21 227d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $258.80 · official $258.89 (match) · 224 history records