Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T05:18:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
1E 0x1eec…9a68 other 46 markets active 2h ago coverage 11d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$71 (+3%) realized +$66 · open +$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate49%19W / 20L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$57per market
Trades / day6.7pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit22%portable
Net worth$615now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$131
7 days+$128
14 days+$93
30 days+$93
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 91% −$49
sports 6% +$98
crypto 3% +$49
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-12.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 +0.1% -9.4% 56% 56% -1.3%
≤30d 39 -3.3% -12.5% 49% 49% -4.9%
≤90d 39 -3.3% -12.5% 49% 49% -4.9%
all 39 -3.3% -12.5% 49% 49% -4.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.5% 49% -4.9%
10% -20.9% 46% -14.0%
15% -28.5% 38% -22.3%
20% -35.5% 33% -29.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +5% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$35 vs −$29 · ×1.22 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.16 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

11d coverage
Net worth$615
Realized+$66
Unrealized+$5
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses19 / 20
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions7
Markets (closed)39 / 46
History coverage11d
Avg bet$57
Trades / day6.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit22%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 39 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 13¢ $100 $120 +$20 (+20%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 20¢ $100 $107 +$7 (+7%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 14¢ $100 $104 +$4 (+4%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Yes 49¢ 50¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Yes 66¢ 64¢ $80 $78 −$2 (-2%)
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Yes 63¢ 62¢ $60 $60 −$0 (-1%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 7¢ $70 $46 −$24 (-34%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 15 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $61 −$10 -16%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $81 +$48 +60%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $101 +$25 +25%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $51 +$26 +52%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $8 −$8 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $70 +$49 +70%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $61 +$44 +73%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $40 +$25 +62%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $51 +$29 +57%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $81 −$80 -99%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $61 +$19 +31%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $51 +$37 +73%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $101 −$50 -49%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $40 +$18 +44%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $106 +$24 +23%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $131 +$21 +16%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 15 $51 +$35 +68%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 3 Uruguay? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $202 −$84 -42%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $20 +$63 +307%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 0 - 2 Uruguay? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 0 - 3 Uruguay? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -97%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $61 −$60 -99%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $51 +$47 +93%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $61 +$36 +59%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $51 −$50 -99%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $20 +$59 +291%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $51 −$50 -99%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 13 $10 −$1 -9%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $25 +$27 +105%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 12 $80 −$80 -99%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $41 −$15 -38%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 11 $26 −$25 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $91 +$39 +43%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $21 −$3 -14%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 63¢ $61 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 66¢ $81 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 48¢ $20 5h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 87¢ $51 5h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $40 14h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 49¢ $102 15h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 62¢ $81 17h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $8 34h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $119 34h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $70 44h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 62¢ $48 44h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 65¢ $51 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 64¢ $101 2d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 47¢ $15 2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 57¢ $61 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $40 3d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $51 3d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 52¢ $81 4d
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes 5¢ $5 4d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 95¢ $79 4d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 72¢ $61 5d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $103 5d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $102 5d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $103 5d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $72 5d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 75¢ $50 5d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $101 5d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $51 5d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $129 5d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 69¢ $40 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $615.23 · official $615.23 (match) · 87 history records