Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T07:11:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
1E 0x1eec…5ca3 other 86 markets active 2h ago coverage 219d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL −$35 (-0%) realized −$92 · open +$57
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +4% what you keep after slip
Net edge+4%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate62%42W / 26L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$108per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$12est.
Kalshi-fit56%portable
Net worth$1,862now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$252
7 days+$464
14 days+$254
30 days+$240
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 42% +$350
crypto 41% −$532
sports 10% +$75
world 5% +$48
economics 1% −$100
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)+3.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 +24.2% +12.3% 81% 76% +10.1%
≤30d 32 +11.3% +0.7% 72% 69% -2.3%
≤90d 58 +21.4% +9.8% 64% 55% -9.9%
all 68 +14.5% +3.6% 62% 54% -12.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +3.6% 54% -12.1%
10% -6.3% 40% -20.6%
15% -15.3% 34% -28.2%
20% -23.6% 24% -35.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +15% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +16% → late +13% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$47 vs −$84 · ×0.56 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

219d coverage
Net worth$1,862
Realized−$92
Unrealized+$57
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses42 / 26
Est. fees paid−$12
Open positions18
Markets (closed)68 / 86
History coverage219d
Avg bet$108
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit56%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 18 History 68 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? Yes 89¢ 90¢ $150 $151 +$1 (+1%)
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 2.5 Over 60¢ 60¢ $150 $149 −$1 (-1%)
Will Ecuador reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 65¢ 92¢ $98 $139 +$41 (+42%)
Will Argentina reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 77¢ 85¢ $100 $110 +$10 (+10%)
Will Germany reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 75¢ 81¢ $101 $109 +$8 (+8%)
Will France reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 85¢ 90¢ $102 $107 +$5 (+5%)
Will England reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 80¢ 84¢ $100 $106 +$6 (+6%)
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Yes 19¢ 20¢ $95 $102 +$7 (+8%)
Will Spain reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 85¢ 84¢ $102 $100 −$2 (-2%)
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 2.5 Over 58¢ 57¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Over 53¢ 52¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Portugal reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 78¢ 75¢ $101 $98 −$4 (-4%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 19¢ $80 $97 +$17 (+21%)
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 Under 59¢ 56¢ $100 $96 −$4 (-4%)
Will Netherlands reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 65¢ 62¢ $101 $95 −$5 (-5%)
Will Brazil reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 77¢ 71¢ $100 $92 −$8 (-8%)
Will Norway reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 63¢ 60¢ $76 $73 −$3 (-4%)
Will Japan reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 49¢ 40¢ $49 $40 −$10 (-19%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 13 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $151 +$52 +34%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $151 +$30 +20%
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $101 +$60 +60%
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $56 +$61 +109%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $85 −$84 -99%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $101 +$55 +55%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $101 +$50 +50%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $151 +$28 +18%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $101 −$100 -100%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $112 +$138 +124%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $70 +$7 +10%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $121 +$58 +48%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $90 −$90 -100%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $47 +$53 +114%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $134 +$16 +12%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $103 −$102 -99%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $97 +$53 +55%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $103 +$52 +50%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $73 +$47 +65%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $98 +$12 +12%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $92 +$68 +73%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $47 +$53 +114%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $64 +$36 +57%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $46 −$45 -99%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $118 −$117 -99%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $164 −$163 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $51 +$49 +97%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $54 −$53 -99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $71 +$29 +42%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 Jun 10 $59 −$58 -99%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? Jun 02 $100 +$28 +28%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31? Jun 01 $100 +$16 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET May 18 $206 −$49 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET May 18 $104 +$105 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET May 18 $101 +$21 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET May 18 $207 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET May 18 $101 +$10 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET May 18 $186 +$59 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET May 18 $204 −$59 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET May 18 $206 −$48 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET May 18 $202 −$202 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET May 18 $207 −$34 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET May 18 $52 −$7 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET May 18 $52 −$22 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET May 18 $52 −$26 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET May 18 $103 −$103 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET May 18 $104 −$47 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET May 18 $102 +$30 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET May 18 $101 +$14 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET May 18 $103 −$103 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 58¢ $101 2h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 89¢ $150 2h
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 53¢ $101 2h
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 59¢ $101 2h
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 60¢ $152 2h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 59¢ $85 23h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 83¢ $151 23h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 74¢ $151 23h
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 62¢ $101 23h
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 47¢ $56 2d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 64¢ $101 2d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 66¢ $101 2d
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 82¢ $101 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 84¢ $151 2d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 44¢ $112 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 91¢ $70 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 67¢ $121 2d
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $47 3d
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 59¢ $90 3d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $103 3d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 89¢ $134 3d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 64¢ $97 4d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 66¢ $103 4d
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 60¢ $73 4d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 57¢ $92 5d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $98 5d
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 60¢ $46 11d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 58¢ $59 11d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 82¢ $82 11d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $83 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,862.32 · official $1,862.34 (match) · 194 history records