Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T17:26:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
1E 0x1eeb…4bde crypto 13 markets active 2h ago coverage 121d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$6 (-1%) realized −$6 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate38%5W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$54per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 70% −$1
crypto 12% $0
sports 12% −$4
politics 6% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-13.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 1 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 5 +0.0% -9.5% 60% 0% -9.5%
all 13 -4.2% -13.3% 38% 0% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.3% 0% -10.3%
10% -21.6% 0% -18.9%
15% -29.2% 0% -26.7%
20% -36.1% 0% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 60% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.01 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.01 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

121d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses5 / 8
Open positions0
Markets (closed)13 / 13
History coverage121d
Avg bet$54
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 13 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Jun 27 $104 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on April 19? Apr 28 $25 $0 +0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Apr 28 $383 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on April 3? Apr 07 $21 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on March 25? Apr 02 $25 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on March 19? Mar 25 $14 $0 +0%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 09 $10 −$4 -38%
Will the Charlotte Hornets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 04 $10 $0 +0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 03 $11 −$1 -9%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 01 $46 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 01 $13 −$1 -8%
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 27 $29 $0 +0%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 26 $16 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Xi Jinping out by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $104 1h
Xi Jinping out by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $104 1h
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL Yes $139 60d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY Yes $139 66d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on April 19? BUY Yes 100¢ $25 71d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL Yes $125 81d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY Yes $125 85d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on April 3? BUY Yes 100¢ $21 86d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL Yes $64 93d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on March 25? BUY Yes 100¢ $25 94d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY Yes $64 94d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on March 19? BUY Yes 100¢ $14 100d
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes $6 110d
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes $10 114d
Will the Charlotte Hornets win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes $7 115d
Will the Charlotte Hornets win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes $4 115d
Will the Charlotte Hornets win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes $10 115d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL Yes $1 115d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL Yes $6 115d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL Yes $1 115d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL Yes $2 115d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL Yes $1 115d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL Yes $5 115d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL Yes $5 115d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL Yes $5 115d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL Yes $3 115d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL Yes $2 115d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL Yes $2 115d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL Yes $8 115d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL Yes $5 115d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 100 history records