Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T16:36:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1E 0x1ee9…b515 sports 49 markets active 5d ago coverage 2d
BOTnot copyable sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (53 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$10 (-14%) realized −$10 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -25% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -42% what you keep after slip
Net edge-42%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate24%12W / 37L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day53.3pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 80% −$8
crypto 10% −$4
other 10% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (53 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-32.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 49 -25.1% -32.2% 24% 20% -24.2%
≤30d 49 -25.1% -32.2% 24% 20% -24.2%
≤90d 49 -25.1% -32.2% 24% 20% -24.2%
all 49 -25.1% -32.2% 24% 20% -24.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover53.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -32.2% 20% -24.2%
10% ← realistic here -38.7% 14% -31.5%
15% -44.6% 12% -38.1%
20% -50.1% 10% -44.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 53% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -17% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -25% · $-wt -17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -23% → late -27% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.56 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.51 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$10
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)24%
Wins / losses12 / 37
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)49 / 49
History coverage2d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day53.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 49 Trades
no open positions (14 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 12 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 -24%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 6AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 12 $1 $0 -5%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $1 $0 -9%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 12 $1 $0 -6%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $1 $0 -6%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $1 $0 -4%
Libema Open: Zeynep Sonmez vs Magda Linette Jun 12 $1 $0 -24%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $2 $0 -11%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $2 $0 -8%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 11 $2 +$1 +28%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 11 $1 −$1 -98%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $2 +$1 +37%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Marcos Giron Jun 11 $1 $0 -14%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 11 $1 $0 -7%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $1 $0 -6%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $1 +$1 +111%
Modena: Lucia Bronzetti vs Julia Grabher Jun 11 $1 $0 -17%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 11 $2 −$1 -49%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $1 $0 +13%
LoL: Partizan Sangal vs WLGaming Esports - Game 2 Winner Jun 11 $2 $0 +19%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $1 −$1 -98%
Tucuman: Lorenzo Joaquin Rodriguez vs Matheus Pucinelli de Almeida Jun 11 $2 $0 -7%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 5.5 Jun 11 $1 −$1 -98%
Libema Open: Ajla Tomljanovic vs Dayana Yastremska Jun 11 $2 −$1 -36%
Cattolica: Dusan Lajovic vs Oriol Roca Batalla Jun 11 $1 $0 +1%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 11 $2 −$1 -50%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $1 −$1 -97%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $1 +$1 +76%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $4 +$1 +20%
Stuttgart Open: Jiri Lehecka vs James Duckworth Jun 11 $2 +$1 +54%
Stuttgart Open: Sho Shimabukuro vs Nick Kyrgios Jun 11 $2 −$1 -62%
Libema Open: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Rinderknech Jun 11 $1 $0 -14%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $1 −$1 -42%
Libema Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Zhizhen Zhang Jun 11 $2 +$3 +197%
Stuttgart Open: Rinky Hijikata vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 11 $1 −$1 -97%
Libema Open: Robin Montgomery vs Greet Minnen Jun 11 $1 −$1 -97%
Cattolica: Alvaro Guillen Meza vs Marco Cecchinato Jun 11 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 11 $1 $0 -6%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $1 $0 -0%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $3 $0 -3%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $3 +$3 +83%
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 10 $4 −$4 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 61¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11AM ET SELL Up 83¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $1 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Up $1 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Down $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET SELL Down 52¢ $1 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET SELL Down 62¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $1 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 6AM ET BUY Down $1 5d
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? SELL No 70¢ $1 5d
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 20¢ $1 5d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? SELL No 40¢ $1 5d
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 41¢ $1 5d
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? SELL No 72¢ $1 5d
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 21¢ $1 5d
Libema Open: Zeynep Sonmez vs Magda Linette SELL Zeynep Sonmez $1 5d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 41¢ $1 5d
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 42¢ $1 5d
Libema Open: Zeynep Sonmez vs Magda Linette BUY Zeynep Sonmez $1 5d
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY No 73¢ $1 5d
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY No 72¢ $1 5d
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY G2 44¢ $1 5d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 83¢ $1 5d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL No 38¢ $1 5d
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? SELL No 65¢ $2 5d
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 41¢ $1 5d
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? BUY No 69¢ $1 5d
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals BUY Texas Rangers 61¢ $1 5d
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 59¢ $1 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 111 history records