Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T06:39:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1E
0x1ee9…197f
other · 615 markets active 0h ago
2.0score
+$51,640 +21%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$17,386 · open +$5,339
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY ⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$34,454
Realized+$17,386
Unrealized+$5,339
Win rate (resolved)78%
Wins / losses303 / 86
Whale WR (big bets)85%
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions313
Markets (closed)389 / 615
History coverage26d
Avg bet$404
Trades / day120.1
Drawdown19%
Kalshi-fit65%
Chart Positions 313 History 389 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2,217
7 days+$2,903
14 days+$15,036
30 days+$17,386
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will US unemployment reach at least 5.0% in 2026? No 58¢ 84¢ $2,725 $3,902 +$1,178 (+43%)
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? No 96¢ 99¢ $3,353 $3,443 +$90 (+3%)
Will there be 15+ missed penalties during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 70¢ 80¢ $1,400 $1,590 +$190 (+14%)
Will SpaceX’s IPO valuation be at least 2.50T? No 97¢ 100¢ $1,009 $1,034 +$25 (+3%)
Will US unemployment reach at least 5.5% in 2026? No 56¢ 92¢ $602 $988 +$385 (+64%)
Will turnout in the second round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election be between 70% and 75%? Yes 32¢ 97¢ $310 $946 +$636 (+205%)
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31? No 60¢ 77¢ $730 $941 +$211 (+29%)
Insurrection Act invoked by December 31? No 65¢ 81¢ $722 $901 +$179 (+25%)
Will the JNE certify results of the second round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential elections by June 30? No 73¢ 80¢ $815 $894 +$78 (+10%)
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 7¢ 11¢ $583 $874 +$291 (+50%)
Will there be 20+ missed penalties during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 86¢ 96¢ $720 $802 +$82 (+11%)
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by July 31, 2026? Yes 64¢ 78¢ $653 $796 +$143 (+22%)
Peru Presidential Election Invalidated? No 93¢ 96¢ $631 $651 +$20 (+3%)
Will SpaceX’s IPO valuation be between 2.25T and 2.50T? No 97¢ 99¢ $570 $582 +$12 (+2%)
Will Trump wear a Yarmulke in 2026? No 63¢ 70¢ $456 $509 +$53 (+12%)
Will voter turnout be 64%+ in the second round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election? No 73¢ 97¢ $374 $493 +$119 (+32%)
Is Earth flat? No 97¢ 97¢ $484 $484 −$1 (-0%)
Will Karoline Leavitt leave the Trump administration before 2027? No 56¢ 68¢ $396 $477 +$81 (+20%)
Will Trump and Putin not meet? Yes 86¢ 99¢ $403 $463 +$60 (+15%)
Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026? No 11¢ 23¢ $220 $460 +$240 (+109%)
Will US unemployment reach at least 6.0% in 2026? No 79¢ 92¢ $390 $455 +$66 (+17%)
James Comey charges dropped by July 31? No 79¢ 94¢ $380 $452 +$72 (+19%)
Theo FDV above $100M one day after launch? No 35¢ 36¢ $399 $410 +$11 (+3%)
Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last Exam? No 33¢ 58¢ $215 $379 +$163 (+76%)
Will Trump and Putin meet next in Russia? No 93¢ 100¢ $304 $327 +$23 (+7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Paraguay finish last in Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Jun 14 $48 −$5 -10%
Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026? Jun 14 $153 +$99 +65%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Jun 14 $778 +$22 +3%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? Jun 14 $187 +$28 +15%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? Jun 14 $312 +$3 +1%
Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking be the best AI model on June 20, 2026? Jun 14 $94 +$33 +36%
Will Vinicius Jr. score 1+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $1 $0 +0%
Will there be 30+ VAR stoppages during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $24 $0 +1%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 14, 2026? Jun 13 $7 +$2 +25%
Will 7+ matches be decided by penalty shootout during the 2026 FIFA Wo Jun 13 $376 +$299 +79%
Will 8+ matches be decided by penalty shootout during the 2026 FIFA Wo Jun 13 $1,342 −$28 -2%
Will Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 3 Jun 13 $69 +$4 +6%
Will 6+ matches be decided by penalty shootout during the 2026 FIFA Wo Jun 13 $10 $0 -1%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 15? Jun 13 $202 +$62 +31%
Will US announce location or date of US and Iran deal signing by June Jun 13 $18 −$18 -100%
Will US announce location or date of US and Iran deal signing by June Jun 13 $372 +$24 +6%
Will Egypt go unbeaten in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Jun 13 $37 $0 -1%
Will Jordan be an advancing Group Stage third-place team at the 2026 W Jun 13 $27 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 13 $1,236 +$1 +0%
Will US announce location or date of US and Iran deal signing by June Jun 13 $195 +$20 +10%
Will Switzerland go unbeaten in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Jun 13 $139 −$17 -12%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 13 $604 +$205 +34%
Will Ferran Torres be in Spain's Starting 11? Jun 13 $2 +$6 +282%
Will Switzerland be an advancing Group Stage third-place team at the 2 Jun 13 $10 +$8 +73%
Will Jared Kushner attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? Jun 13 $10 +$5 +50%
Will Spencer Pratt call for 1st round recount? Jun 13 $644 +$152 +24%
SpaceX IPO: Open Price above IPO Price? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Future perform "Fuck Up Some Commas" at 2026 FIFA Opening Ceremon Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Future perform "PLUTOSKI" at 2026 FIFA Opening Ceremony? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Future perform "712PM" at 2026 FIFA Opening Ceremony? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Future perform "Stick Talk" at 2026 FIFA Opening Ceremony? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Future perform "Thought It Was a Drought" at 2026 FIFA Opening Ce Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Will JD Vance sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 13 $209 +$22 +10%
Will Marco Rubio sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 13 $572 +$126 +22%
Will Ken Paxton win the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff by betw Jun 13 $1 $0 +0%
Will Marc Guéhi be in England's Starting 11? Jun 13 $73 +$98 +134%
Will United States go unbeaten in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Jun 13 $56 −$16 -29%
Will Lindsey Graham win the first round of the South Carolina Republic Jun 13 $217 +$32 +15%
Will Future perform "Mask Off" at 2026 FIFA Opening Ceremony? Jun 13 $5 −$2 -51%
Will Sergino Dest be in the starting 11 for the USA's first 2026 FIFA Jun 13 $16 +$2 +10%
Will X Æ A-Xii be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX's I Jun 13 $373 +$289 +78%
Will Grimes be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX's IPO? Jun 13 $915 +$56 +6%
Will Shivon Zilis be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX' Jun 13 $93 +$9 +10%
Will Civil Contract win the most seats in the 2026 Armenian National A Jun 13 $3,275 +$93 +3%
Will Malik Tillman be in the starting 11 for the USA's first 2026 FIFA Jun 12 $30 $0 +1%
Will Chris Richards be in the starting 11 for the USA's first 2026 FIF Jun 12 $8 −$8 -98%
Will SpaceX IPO by June 15, 2026? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will SpaceX’s initial public offering occur in July 2026 (ET)? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will SpaceX raise between $60B and $70B in its IPO? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will SpaceX IPO by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $53 −$53 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
politics 31% +$4,940
world 31% +$2,812
other 14% +$4,817
crypto 10% +$7,117
tech 6% +$924
sports 4% +$84
finance 3% +$470
economics 1% +$1,560
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the JNE certify results of the second round of the 2026 Peruvian SELL No 9¢ $2 7m
Will Paraguay finish last in Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group SELL No 43¢ $0 7m
Will Paraguay finish last in Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group SELL No 43¢ $42 7m
Will Paraguay finish last in Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group SELL No 43¢ $1 8m
Will the JNE certify results of the second round of the 2026 Peruvian BUY No 5¢ $1 11m
Will the JNE certify results of the second round of the 2026 Peruvian BUY No 5¢ $1 12m
Will the JNE certify results of the second round of the 2026 Peruvian BUY No 5¢ $1 13m
Will 2+ matches be suspended by weather protocol during the 2026 FIFA BUY No 35¢ $172 17m
Will the JNE certify results of the second round of the 2026 Peruvian BUY No 5¢ $1 21m
Will the JNE certify results of the second round of the 2026 Peruvian BUY No 5¢ $0 21m
Will Brazil be an advancing Group Stage third-place team at the 2026 W SELL Yes 6¢ $3 25m
Will the JNE certify results of the second round of the 2026 Peruvian BUY No 75¢ $490 25m
Will the JNE certify results of the second round of the 2026 Peruvian BUY No 3¢ $6 30m
Will the JNE certify results of the second round of the 2026 Peruvian BUY No 4¢ $8 30m
Will the JNE certify results of the second round of the 2026 Peruvian BUY No 6¢ $1 30m
Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026? SELL No 52¢ $113 39m
Will Australia finish last in Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group BUY Yes 6¢ $1 44m
Will USA advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 2¢ $3 46m
Will Cristiano Ronaldo score 6+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 49m
Will Pete Hegseth sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? BUY No 91¢ $5 1h
Will Pete Hegseth sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? SELL No 92¢ $96 1h
Will Pete Hegseth sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? BUY No 87¢ $9 1h
Will Pete Hegseth sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? BUY No 88¢ $35 1h
Will Pete Hegseth sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? BUY No 94¢ $52 1h
Will Türkiye finish last in Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group S BUY Yes 13¢ $5 1h
Will Türkiye finish last in Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group S BUY Yes 8¢ $2 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? SELL No 76¢ $724 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? SELL No 76¢ $36 1h
Will Cristiano Ronaldo score 6+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY No 74¢ $368 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)+87.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 159 +27.9% +15.7% 79% 42% -6.6%
≤30d 389 +107.5% +87.8% 78% 46% -2.6%
≤90d 389 +107.5% +87.8% 78% 46% -2.6%
all 389 +107.5% +87.8% 78% 46% -2.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover120.1 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +87.8% 46% -2.6%
10% +69.8% 30% -12.0%
15% ← realistic here +53.4% 24% -20.5%
20% +38.3% 22% -28.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $34,454.48 · official $34,453.90 (match) · 3500 history records