Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T09:01:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1E 0x1ee9…5439 other 122 markets active 2h ago coverage 135d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$26 (-0%) realized −$26 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate9%11W / 110L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$246per market
Trades / day2.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$40now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 44% −$14
politics 33% −$12
sports 13% −$1
crypto 3% $0
tech 3% −$1
world 3% −$1
culture 1% $0
economics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-12.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 10 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 79 -0.1% -9.6% 1% 0% -9.6%
all 121 -3.5% -12.7% 9% 4% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.7% 4% -9.6%
10% -21.0% 2% -18.3%
15% -28.7% 2% -26.2%
20% -35.7% 2% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 44% · top 2 68% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
55% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -7% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$1 · ×6.38 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.64 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

135d coverage
Net worth$40
Realized−$26
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)9%
Wins / losses11 / 110
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)121 / 122
History coverage135d
Avg bet$246
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 121 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 23 $27 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 21 $32 $0 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 21 $38 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 18 $29 $0 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 30 $211 $0 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 28 $387 −$1 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? May 26 $192 $0 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 25 $610 −$1 -0%
Will JB Pritzker win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 25 $168 $0 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 24 $212 $0 -0%
Will Tony Thurmond win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 23 $240 $0 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 23 $182 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 23 $173 $0 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 21 $187 $0 -0%
Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 21 $208 $0 -0%
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 20 $868 −$1 -0%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina May 19 $188 $0 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 19 $229 $0 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 18 $622 −$1 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 18 $249 $0 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 17 $222 $0 -0%
Will Butch Ware win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 15 $236 $0 -0%
Will Kyle Langford win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 14 $250 $0 -0%
Will Iraq win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 14 $185 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 12 $201 $0 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 11 $376 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2026? May 10 $192 $0 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 10 $407 −$1 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in April? May 09 $31 $0 +0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no Apr 20 $235 $0 -0%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 18 $228 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 18 $218 $0 -0%
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 17 $217 $0 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 17 $213 $0 -0%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 16 $170 $0 -0%
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 16 $445 $0 -0%
Will Portugal win Eurovision 2026? Apr 15 $205 $0 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 15 $218 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 15 $233 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $607 −$1 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 14 $240 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Heat win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 14 $221 $0 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 13 $418 $0 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 13 $184 $0 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 13 $229 $0 -0%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 13 $174 −$1 -0%
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 12 $190 $0 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 12 $224 $0 -0%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be István Kapitány? Apr 12 $256 $0 -0%
Will Seo Young-kyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 11 $419 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $40 1h
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $27 1h
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $27 45h
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $32 47h
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $32 2d
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $38 2d
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $38 2d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $29 4d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $29 18d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $211 23d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $211 25d
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $187 26d
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $187 26d
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $192 27d
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $192 28d
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $205 28d
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $205 28d
Will JB Pritzker win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $168 28d
Will JB Pritzker win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $168 29d
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $212 29d
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $212 30d
Will Tony Thurmond win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $240 30d
Will Tony Thurmond win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $240 30d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $182 30d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $182 31d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $173 31d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $173 32d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $187 32d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $187 32d
Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $208 33d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $39.98 · official $39.98 (match) · 372 history records