Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T11:55:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1E 0x1ee8…15bc other 174 markets active 2h ago coverage 167d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$32 (-0%) realized −$32 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate22%38W / 136L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$140per market
Trades / day3.9pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 27% −$12
other 25% −$10
politics 24% −$16
crypto 10% −$3
culture 4% $0
economics 4% +$4
finance 3% +$1
world 2% −$1
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 3 -0.8% -10.3% 0% 0% -10.3%
≤90d 86 -0.2% -9.7% 20% 0% -9.7%
all 174 -0.1% -9.7% 22% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.09 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.39 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

167d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$32
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses38 / 136
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)174 / 174
History coverage167d
Avg bet$140
Trades / day3.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 174 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 25 $64 $0 -0%
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 18 $49 $0 -1%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? Jun 04 $63 −$1 -2%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 22 $205 $0 -0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 08 $90 $0 -0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 08 $127 −$1 -1%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 08 $53 $0 -0%
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 08 $55 $0 +0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 08 $242 −$1 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 07 $184 $0 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 07 $119 $0 -0%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 07 $56 $0 -1%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? May 06 $51 $0 -0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 06 $684 −$2 -0%
Will Rafael Jodar win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 06 $57 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in May? May 06 $40 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 05 $416 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 05 $147 $0 -0%
Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election? May 05 $44 −$1 -2%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in May? May 05 $41 $0 -0%
Will Matt Mahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 04 $57 −$1 -1%
Will there be no Head of State in Iran end of 2026? May 04 $48 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 04 $95 −$1 -1%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee May 03 $47 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 03 $676 −$1 -0%
Will Sweden win Eurovision 2026? May 03 $266 −$1 -0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet May 02 $45 −$1 -2%
Will Novak Djokovic win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 02 $60 $0 -1%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 02 $97 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 02 $119 $0 -0%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? May 01 $49 $0 -0%
Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 01 $147 −$2 -1%
Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 01 $56 +$2 +4%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 01 $198 $0 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 30 $283 −$1 -0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom Apr 28 $64 $0 +0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 27 $60 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Apr 27 $310 $0 -0%
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 27 $427 −$1 -0%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 22 $52 $0 -0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in April? Apr 21 $54 $0 -0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 20 $231 −$3 -1%
Will the Utah Mammoth win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Apr 19 $67 $0 -0%
Will Italy win Eurovision 2026? Apr 19 $294 $0 -0%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 19 $60 +$1 +1%
Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2026? Apr 18 $39 $0 +0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 17 $52 $0 +0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? Apr 17 $52 $0 -0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $226 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 16 $58 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 97¢ $64 1h
Will Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 97¢ $20 8h
Will Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 97¢ $44 8h
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 96¢ $48 7d
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 96¢ $49 7d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? SELL No 92¢ $62 20d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? BUY No 93¢ $63 21d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 96¢ $50 33d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $50 34d
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 97¢ $45 47d
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 97¢ $45 47d
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 96¢ $66 47d
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 96¢ $66 48d
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 96¢ $53 48d
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 96¢ $53 48d
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 93¢ $55 48d
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 93¢ $55 48d
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 93¢ $50 48d
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 93¢ $50 48d
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 95¢ $51 48d
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 95¢ $51 49d
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $56 49d
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $56 49d
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? SELL No 97¢ $55 49d
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? BUY No 97¢ $56 49d
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 97¢ $51 49d
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 97¢ $51 49d
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 94¢ $53 49d
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 94¢ $53 49d
Will Rafael Jodar win the 2026 Men's French Open? SELL No 97¢ $57 49d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 726 history records