Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T21:24:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1E 0x1ee6…d412 crypto 157 markets active 0h ago coverage 78d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$486 (-9%) realized −$475 · open −$11
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate34%51W / 100L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$36per market
Trades / day3.7pace
Fees−$12est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$14now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$58
7 days−$112
14 days−$112
30 days−$112
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 65% −$894
other 25% +$181
sports 11% +$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-17.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 79 -12.8% -21.1% 25% 25% -18.0%
≤30d 79 -12.8% -21.1% 25% 25% -18.0%
≤90d 151 -8.9% -17.5% 34% 31% -20.9%
all 151 -8.9% -17.5% 34% 31% -20.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.5% 31% -20.9%
10% -25.4% 27% -28.5%
15% -32.6% 25% -35.4%
20% -39.2% 23% -41.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 45% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -17% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$27 vs −$21 · ×1.29 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.66 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

78d coverage
Net worth$14
Realized−$475
Unrealized−$11
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses51 / 100
Est. fees paid−$12
Open positions4
Markets (closed)151 / 157
History coverage78d
Avg bet$36
Trades / day3.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 151 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-3%)
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-8%)
France vs. Senegal: Senegal O/U 0.5 Under 43¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 17 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $50 −$50 -99%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $132 +$29 +22%
Exact Score: France 1 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $20 −$5 -24%
Senegal to score first vs. France? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $15 −$15 -99%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $102 −$3 -3%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $35 −$8 -22%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 16 $5 −$4 -80%
Exact Score: France 0 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 16 $10 −$6 -62%
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $10 −$6 -62%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $3 −$2 -72%
France vs. Senegal: Draw at halftime? Jun 16 $15 +$6 +40%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 16 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $59 +$56 +96%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $10 +$17 +165%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Egypt O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $5 +$3 +60%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $10 +$9 +86%
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 1 Egypt? Jun 15 $30 −$17 -59%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 15 $10 +$4 +35%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 −$3 -68%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $40 −$11 -27%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $31 +$29 +96%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $10 −$4 -44%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Egypt leading at halftime? Jun 15 $5 −$2 -43%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $5 −$1 -26%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $2 +$6 +307%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $5 +$6 +114%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $2 +$1 +37%
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $15 −$15 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $100 −$29 -29%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Spain leading at halftime? Jun 15 $15 −$15 -99%
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $4 −$4 -98%
Spain to score first vs. Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $20 +$16 +79%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Japan? Jun 14 $4 +$11 +274%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 2 Japan? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -97%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $10 −$2 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 14 $20 −$10 -48%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $31 +$6 +20%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 78¢ $50 27m
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 99¢ $27 36m
Exact Score: France 1 - 0 Senegal? SELL Yes 35¢ $15 46m
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 80¢ $65 47m
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 46¢ $51 58m
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 45¢ $45 1h
Senegal to score first vs. France? BUY Yes 27¢ $10 1h
Exact Score: France 1 - 0 Senegal? BUY Yes 23¢ $20 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 49¢ $51 1h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 21¢ $5 1h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 51¢ $15 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 49¢ $24 1h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $5 1h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $5 1h
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $5 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 17¢ $100 1h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 36¢ $11 1h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 1h
Exact Score: France 0 - 0 Senegal? BUY Yes 15¢ $5 1h
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 0.5 BUY Under 28¢ $10 1h
Spread: France (-2.5) SELL France 8¢ $4 1h
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 2.5 SELL Over 13¢ $4 1h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 5¢ $1 1h
France vs. Senegal: Draw at halftime? SELL Yes 55¢ $21 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 60¢ $30 2h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 51¢ $16 2h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 19¢ $3 2h
France vs. Senegal: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 38¢ $15 2h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 54¢ $35 2h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $14.40 · official $14.40 (match) · 383 history records