Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T17:04:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
1E 0x1ee4…62de other 33 markets active 2h ago coverage 44d
RISKYcopy with care Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
Total PnL +$332 (+29%) realized +$289 · open +$43
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +56% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +42% what you keep after slip
Net edge+42%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate45%13W / 16L
Drawdown13%max
Avg bet$35per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit55%portable
Net worth$428now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$236
7 days+$347
14 days+$347
30 days+$341
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 94% +$373
sports 5% +$3
world 1% −$5
politics 0% −$1
crypto 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)+41.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 +161.8% +136.9% 77% 77% +35.4%
≤30d 17 +100.2% +81.1% 59% 59% +34.2%
≤90d 29 +56.5% +41.6% 45% 45% +29.7%
all 29 +56.5% +41.6% 45% 45% +29.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +41.6% 45% +29.7%
10% +28.0% 41% +17.3%
15% +15.7% 38% +5.9%
20% +4.3% 28% -4.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 55% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +43% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +56% · $-wt +43% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -19% → late +127% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$30 vs −$4 · ×8.38 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×6.81 per $1 lost it wins $6.81
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

44d coverage
Net worth$428
Realized+$289
Unrealized+$43
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses13 / 16
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions4
Markets (closed)29 / 33
History coverage44d
Avg bet$35
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown13%
Kalshi-fit55%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 29 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Yes 89¢ 100¢ $378 $424 +$46 (+12%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 6¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+59%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 28¢ 6¢ $5 $1 −$4 (-77%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 16 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $151 +$26 +17%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $239 +$114 +48%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $143 +$96 +67%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 18 $2 +$8 +393%
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 18 $2 +$27 +1331%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $76 +$27 +36%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $45 +$31 +70%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $30 +$15 +50%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $2 +$7 +365%
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Jun 15 $2 +$1 +26%
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Trump attend his son's wedding? May 22 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 22 $2 −$2 -98%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 22 $2 −$2 -98%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 22 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $1 +$2 +158%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Martin Landaluce vs Daniil Medvedev May 17 $2 +$4 +216%
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) May 17 $6 +$25 +414%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Coco Gauff vs Elina Svitolina May 16 $25 −$25 -99%
Bordeaux: Raphael Collignon vs Tallon Griekspoor May 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Jannik Sinner vs Daniil Medvedev May 15 $3 −$1 -17%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-17? May 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 PGA Championship? May 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Bordeaux: Arthur Rinderknech vs Martin Damm May 14 $5 −$5 -99%
Will TSV Fortuna 95 Düsseldorf win on 2026-05-17? May 14 $3 −$2 -98%
Will RB Leipzig win on 2026-05-16? May 14 $3 −$2 -98%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $1 −$1 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 89¢ $379 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 85¢ $151 12h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 67¢ $239 24h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 59¢ $143 47h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 73¢ $76 3d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $45 4d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $30 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 28¢ $5 6d
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 6d
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main BUY Sean OMalley 79¢ $2 6d
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai BUY Michael Chandler 18¢ $1 6d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 51¢ $5 6d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 21¢ $2 6d
Will Trump attend his son's wedding? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 29d
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 50¢ $2 29d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 30¢ $2 29d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 20¢ $2 29d
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 29d
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Coco Gauff vs Elina Svitolina BUY Coco Gauff 73¢ $25 36d
Bordeaux: Raphael Collignon vs Tallon Griekspoor BUY Tallon Griekspoor 18¢ $1 36d
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Jannik Sinner vs Daniil Medvedev BUY Daniil Medvedev 33¢ $1 36d
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-17? BUY Yes 38¢ $1 36d
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-17? BUY Yes 34¢ $1 36d
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Jannik Sinner vs Daniil Medvedev SELL Daniil Medvedev 11¢ $2 36d
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 PGA Championship? BUY Yes 18¢ $5 36d
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Jannik Sinner vs Daniil Medvedev BUY Daniil Medvedev 9¢ $2 37d
Bordeaux: Arthur Rinderknech vs Martin Damm BUY Arthur Rinderknech 64¢ $5 37d
Will TSV Fortuna 95 Düsseldorf win on 2026-05-17? BUY Yes 38¢ $3 37d
Will RB Leipzig win on 2026-05-16? BUY Yes 42¢ $3 37d
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Martin Landaluce vs Daniil Medvedev BUY Daniil Medvedev 31¢ $2 37d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $428.06 · official $427.63 (match) · 48 history records