Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T12:40:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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1E 0x1ee4…046e crypto 1083 markets active 0h ago coverage 52d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 52d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$908 (-9%) realized −$909 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate48%535W / 587L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day44.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$33now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$106
14 days−$106
30 days−$106
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$697
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-13.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 273 +1.3% -8.3% 49% 33% -15.7%
≤30d 273 +1.3% -8.3% 49% 33% -15.7%
≤90d 1122 -4.0% -13.1% 48% 42% -15.7%
all 1122 -4.0% -13.1% 48% 42% -15.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover44.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.1% 42% -15.7%
10% ← realistic here -21.5% 40% -23.8%
15% -29.0% 39% -31.1%
20% -36.0% 38% -37.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 0% · top 2 1% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$8 · ×0.93 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.85 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

52d coverage
Net worth$33
Realized−$909
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses535 / 587
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1122 / 1083
History coverage52d ⚠
Avg bet$9
Trades / day44.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1122 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Down 94¢ 100¢ $9 $10 +$1 (+6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 41 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Solana Up or Down - April 18, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 16 $0 $0 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 16 $0 −$1 -171%
XRP Up or Down - April 1, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 16 $0 +$1 +161%
Solana Up or Down - April 13, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 16 $0 $0 +100%
XRP Up or Down - February 25, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 16 $0 $0 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 16 $0 +$1 +160%
Solana Up or Down - January 24, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 16 $0 $0 +117%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 16 $0 $0 +44%
XRP Up or Down - April 7, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 16 $0 +$1 +159%
Solana Up or Down - February 27, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 16 $0 $0 +100%
XRP Up or Down - February 21, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 16 $0 $0 +100%
Solana Up or Down - March 21, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 16 $0 $0 +157%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 16 $0 +$1 +398%
XRP Up or Down - March 23, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 16 $0 $0 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 16 $0 $0 +233%
Solana Up or Down - April 3, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 16 $0 $0 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 16 $0 −$1 -273%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 27, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 16 $0 −$1 -438%
Solana Up or Down - February 5, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 16 $0 $0 +100%
Solana Up or Down - February 3, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 16 $0 $0 +100%
XRP Up or Down - February 17, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 16 $0 $0 +100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 6, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 16 $0 $0 +100%
Solana Up or Down - March 22, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 16 $0 $0 +100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 4, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 16 $0 $0 +29%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 2, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 16 $0 $0 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Solana Up or Down - January 28, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 25, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 16 $0 −$1 -1083%
XRP Up or Down - February 12, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 16 $0 +$1 +360%
Solana Up or Down - March 8, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 16 $0 $0 +75%
XRP Up or Down - March 13, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 16 $0 $0 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 16 $0 $0 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 16 $0 $0 +344%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 23, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 16 $0 $0 -30%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 7, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 16 $0 $0 +156%
XRP Up or Down - January 28, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 5, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
XRP Up or Down - March 26, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 16 $8 +$2 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 16 $9 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 16 $7 +$3 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 16 $7 −$2 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 16 $9 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $5 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $5 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $4 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $3 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $4 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $4 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $5 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $5 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $4 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $1 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $4 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $5 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $3 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $4 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $4 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $33.11 · official $19.75 · 3500 history records