Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T07:09:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
1E 0x1ede…2de3 sports 186 markets active 2h ago coverage 178d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$2,947 (+4%) realized +$2,947 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +2% what you keep after slip
Net edge+2%after slip
Net WR57%break-even
Win rate60%112W / 74L
Whale WR64%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$437per market
Trades / day2.7pace
Fees−$178est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2,496
7 days+$4,228
14 days+$4,228
30 days+$3,252
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 90% +$1,990
other 5% +$937
crypto 5% +$504
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +57%
net ROI/market (all)+1.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +50.9% +36.5% 100% 80% +16.2%
≤30d 6 +25.8% +13.8% 83% 67% +9.0%
≤90d 20 -25.6% -32.7% 45% 35% -4.0%
all 186 +12.4% +1.7% 60% 57% -5.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +1.7% 57% -5.7%
10% -8.0% 51% -14.7%
15% -16.9% 44% -23.0%
20% -25.0% 35% -30.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +12% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 64% (≥$583) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +3% → late +22% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$240 vs −$317 · ×0.76 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.15 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

178d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$2,947
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses112 / 74
Whale WR (big bets)64%
Est. fees paid−$178
Open positions0
Markets (closed)186 / 186
History coverage178d
Avg bet$437
Trades / day2.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 186 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics Jun 20 $5,972 +$619 +10%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 20 $3,039 +$954 +31%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $2,739 +$303 +11%
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees Jun 19 $2,118 +$619 +29%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $1,004 +$1,732 +172%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 24 $990 −$976 -99%
LoL: Team WE vs Oh My God (BO3) - Esports World Cup China Qualifier Ph Apr 14 $150 −$148 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Apr 14 $76 +$75 +99%
Wuning 2: Jie Cui vs Mikhail Kukushkin Apr 14 $84 −$8 -10%
New York Mets vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Apr 14 $518 +$11 +2%
Los Angeles Angels vs. New York Yankees Apr 14 $940 −$415 -44%
Houston Astros vs. Seattle Mariners Apr 13 $358 +$144 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Apr 13 $6 −$6 -100%
Final Stage: USA vs. Venezuela Apr 13 $615 −$615 -100%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Atlanta Braves Apr 13 $7 −$7 -100%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Minnesota Twins Apr 13 $9 −$9 -100%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Detroit Tigers Apr 13 $8 −$8 -100%
Thunder vs. Lakers Apr 13 $1,406 −$1,406 -100%
Cincinnati Reds vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Apr 13 $10 −$10 -100%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Anyone's Legend (BO3) - Esports World Cup China Q Apr 13 $937 +$427 +46%
Lakers vs. Rockets Mar 17 $1,979 −$1,979 -100%
Chicago White Sox vs. Texas Rangers Mar 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Chicago Cubs vs. Cleveland Guardians Mar 17 $9 +$11 +113%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Mar 17 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Mar 17 $23 +$3 +11%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Miami Marlins Mar 17 $16 +$4 +22%
Washington Nationals vs. New York Mets Mar 17 $9 +$11 +132%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Mar 17 $7 +$13 +170%
Final Stage: Italy vs. Venezuela Mar 17 $1,202 +$757 +63%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics Mar 17 $19 +$1 +6%
San Francisco Giants vs. San Diego Padres Mar 17 $11 +$9 +88%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs BNK FEARX (BO5) - First Stand Group A Mar 16 $1,002 +$234 +23%
Jazz vs. Kings Mar 16 $712 +$290 +41%
Final Stage: Dominican Rep. vs. USA Mar 16 $645 +$567 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Mar 15 $8 +$4 +55%
LoL: MVK Esports vs CTBC Flying Oyster (BO3) - LCP Regular Season Mar 15 $815 +$690 +85%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Mar 15 $473 +$916 +194%
76ers vs. Bulls Mar 15 $901 −$697 -77%
LoL: Gen.G Global Academy vs Hanwha Life Esports Challengers (BO3) Mar 15 $20 +$11 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 8, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Mar 15 $138 +$47 +34%
Magic vs. Kings Mar 15 $264 −$263 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Mar 15 $2 −$1 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Mar 15 $277 −$136 -49%
Jazz vs. Cavaliers Mar 15 $99 +$446 +450%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Mar 15 $95 +$89 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Mar 15 $140 +$109 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Mar 15 $4 −$1 -16%
Rockets vs. Lakers Mar 15 $1,013 +$803 +79%
LoL: JD Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO5) Mar 15 $174 +$98 +56%
Final Stage: Japan vs. Venezuela Mar 15 $221 −$163 -74%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics SELL Athletics 100¢ $4,616 1h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics BUY Athletics 88¢ $1,951 2h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics BUY Athletics 83¢ $2,010 2h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics SELL Athletics 81¢ $1,975 2h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics BUY Athletics 82¢ $2,011 2h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers SELL Los Angeles Dodgers 93¢ $3,993 3h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 70¢ $3,039 4h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 99¢ $3,043 5h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $2,739 6h
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees SELL New York Yankees 94¢ $2,737 7h
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees BUY New York Yankees 72¢ $2,118 15h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 36¢ $1,004 6d
Knicks vs. Cavaliers BUY Cavaliers 52¢ $990 27d
LoL: Team WE vs Oh My God (BO3) - Esports World Cup China Qualifier Ph BUY Team WE 60¢ $150 66d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $150 66d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $76 66d
Wuning 2: Jie Cui vs Mikhail Kukushkin SELL Mikhail Kukushkin 75¢ $59 66d
Wuning 2: Jie Cui vs Mikhail Kukushkin SELL Mikhail Kukushkin 76¢ $17 67d
Wuning 2: Jie Cui vs Mikhail Kukushkin BUY Mikhail Kukushkin 82¢ $84 67d
New York Mets vs. Los Angeles Dodgers SELL Los Angeles Dodgers 100¢ $84 67d
New York Mets vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 70¢ $59 67d
Los Angeles Angels vs. New York Yankees SELL New York Yankees 9¢ $61 67d
Los Angeles Angels vs. New York Yankees BUY New York Yankees 64¢ $440 67d
New York Mets vs. Los Angeles Dodgers SELL Los Angeles Dodgers 58¢ $445 67d
New York Mets vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 59¢ $458 67d
Los Angeles Angels vs. New York Yankees SELL New York Yankees 60¢ $464 67d
Los Angeles Angels vs. New York Yankees BUY New York Yankees 64¢ $500 67d
Houston Astros vs. Seattle Mariners SELL Seattle Mariners 88¢ $502 67d
Houston Astros vs. Seattle Mariners BUY Seattle Mariners 62¢ $358 67d
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Anyone's Legend (BO3) - Esports World Cup China Q SELL Anyones Legend 100¢ $1,364 67d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 623 history records