Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T18:08:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1E 0x1ede…e395 sports 82 markets active 0h ago coverage 8d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$214 (-6%) realized −$203 · open −$11
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +23% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +3% what you keep after slip
Net edge+3%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate47%32W / 36L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$45per market
Trades / day11.7pace
Fees−$31est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$364now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$39
7 days−$511
14 days−$297
30 days−$297
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 55% +$31
other 43% −$334
crypto 1% +$36
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)+11.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 60 -1.5% -10.9% 48% 47% -25.9%
≤30d 68 +22.9% +11.2% 47% 46% -18.5%
≤90d 68 +22.9% +11.2% 47% 46% -18.5%
all 68 +22.9% +11.2% 47% 46% -18.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +11.2% 46% -18.5%
10% +0.6% 40% -26.3%
15% -9.1% 29% -33.4%
20% -18.1% 26% -39.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +23% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +91% → late -45% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$39 vs −$43 · ×0.91 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$364
Realized−$203
Unrealized−$11
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses32 / 36
Est. fees paid−$31
Open positions14
Markets (closed)68 / 82
History coverage8d
Avg bet$45
Trades / day11.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 14 History 68 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score Yes 47¢ 48¢ $50 $51 +$1 (+1%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Yes 69¢ 68¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Yes 70¢ 69¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 Over 54¢ 52¢ $45 $44 −$1 (-3%)
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Yes 62¢ 62¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-1%)
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Yes 47¢ 46¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-1%)
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 Over 73¢ 72¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 Under 67¢ 100¢ $15 $22 +$7 (+49%)
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 Over 69¢ 68¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-1%)
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Over 42¢ 42¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Yes 38¢ 38¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Exact Score: Uruguay 2 - 1 Cabo Verde? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-5%)
Exact Score: Uruguay 3 - 1 Cabo Verde? Yes 6¢ 5¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-17%)
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Saudi Arabia O/U 0.5 Over 31¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 35 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 21 $41 −$41 -100%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $10 +$14 +140%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $50 +$14 +27%
Tunisia vs. Japan: Tunisia O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $50 +$24 +48%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $30 +$21 +70%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $51 +$36 +70%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $111 +$26 +24%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $56 +$36 +64%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 5.5 Jun 20 $51 +$46 +92%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 6.5 Jun 20 $5 −$5 -98%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Sweden O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $31 +$7 +24%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 4.5 Jun 20 $5 −$5 -98%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $61 −$60 -99%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $50 −$50 -100%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $31 −$30 -98%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $50 +$17 +34%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $100 +$17 +17%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $51 −$50 -98%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Neither team to score first? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -97%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $51 −$50 -99%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -97%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $31 −$30 -98%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 Jun 19 $15 −$15 -98%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $56 −$55 -98%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $81 −$80 -99%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $30 −$30 -99%
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $51 −$50 -99%
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $51 +$31 +61%
Spread: Czechia (-2.5) Jun 18 $20 −$20 -98%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 5.5 Jun 18 $21 −$20 -97%
Spread: Czechia (-3.5) Jun 18 $10 −$10 -97%
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) Jun 18 $30 −$30 -98%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $51 −$50 -98%
Colombia to score first vs. Uzbekistan? Jun 18 $25 +$9 +34%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $41 +$48 +119%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $30 +$25 +83%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $10 +$24 +238%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $50 +$10 +20%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $30 +$32 +105%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $51 +$58 +114%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $21 +$146 +712%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $41 +$57 +140%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 +$49 +474%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $50 +$4 +7%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $20 −$20 -98%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $51 −$50 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 42¢ $10 1m
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 69¢ $15 1m
Exact Score: Uruguay 3 - 1 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 2m
Exact Score: Uruguay 2 - 1 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 3m
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 38¢ $5 4m
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 67¢ $15 16m
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 73¢ $30 1h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $41 1h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 62¢ $40 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $50 1h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 54¢ $46 1h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $51 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $50 1h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Saudi Arabia O/U 0.5 BUY Over 31¢ $15 1h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 41¢ $10 13h
Tunisia vs. Japan: Tunisia O/U 0.5 BUY Over 34¢ $15 13h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 78¢ $50 13h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 33¢ $5 23h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 73¢ $40 23h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 58¢ $25 24h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Sweden O/U 0.5 SELL Under 41¢ $38 24h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 21¢ $5 24h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 24¢ $10 24h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 61¢ $30 24h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 30¢ $15 24h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 61¢ $30 25h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 87¢ $50 25h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 39¢ $31 25h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 58¢ $30 25h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Sweden O/U 0.5 BUY Under 32¢ $31 25h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $363.79 · official $363.53 (match) · 125 history records