Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T12:20:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1E 0x1edb…a60b sports 541 markets active 5h ago coverage 64d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$831 (-4%) realized −$833 · open +$2
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate42%224W / 309L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$43per market
Trades / day11.9pace
Fees−$291est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$280now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$116
7 days−$584
14 days−$1,295
30 days−$670
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 74% −$1,016
other 23% −$176
world 2% −$50
crypto 1% $0
politics 0% −$1
finance 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 44 -11.7% -20.1% 23% 23% -33.9%
≤30d 366 +5.3% -4.7% 42% 42% -13.0%
≤90d 533 -0.6% -10.1% 42% 39% -14.4%
all 533 -0.6% -10.1% 42% 39% -14.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.1% 39% -14.4%
10% -18.7% 38% -22.6%
15% -26.6% 34% -30.1%
20% -33.8% 32% -36.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late +4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$42 vs −$35 · ×1.22 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.88 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

64d coverage
Net worth$280
Realized−$833
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses224 / 309
Est. fees paid−$291
Open positions8
Markets (closed)533 / 541
History coverage64d
Avg bet$43
Trades / day11.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 533 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 57¢ 61¢ $64 $69 +$5 (+7%)
World Cup: Unbeaten Champion? No 25¢ 24¢ $47 $47 −$1 (-1%)
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Over 49¢ 50¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score No 53¢ 52¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-3%)
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score No 54¢ 52¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-3%)
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score No 60¢ 60¢ $20 $19 −$0 (-1%)
Czechia vs. South Africa: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Over 31¢ 30¢ $18 $17 −$1 (-3%)
Spread: Canada (-3.5) Canada 14¢ 14¢ $12 $11 −$0 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 119 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $20 −$3 -14%
T20 Blast, League 2, Women: Northamptonshire Steelbacks vs Derbyshire Jun 16 $20 +$6 +29%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $20 +$25 +121%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $11 +$79 +704%
Belgium leading at halftime? Jun 16 $20 +$16 +78%
Austria vs. Jordan: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $18 −$17 -97%
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $20 −$19 -98%
France vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $18 +$40 +226%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $11 −$10 -96%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $20 −$10 -49%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $61 −$24 -39%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $20 −$20 -97%
Will CD Coquimbo Unido win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $66 +$69 +103%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $65 +$89 +137%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $66 −$37 -57%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $46 −$20 -42%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $66 −$42 -64%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $64 −$20 -31%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs New Zealand Jun 13 $55 −$19 -35%
BC Lietkabelis Panevezys vs. BC Neptunas Klaipeda Jun 13 $67 −$42 -63%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs South Africa Jun 13 $45 −$23 -51%
Toronto Tempo vs. Washington Mystics Jun 13 $67 −$40 -59%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $60 −$40 -67%
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $63 −$62 -97%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $61 +$108 +178%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 3.5 Jun 11 $48 −$21 -43%
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Natus Vincere (+1.5) Jun 11 $64 −$62 -97%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $64 −$37 -58%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $66 −$36 -53%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $46 −$41 -89%
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 11 $66 +$56 +84%
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 11 $66 −$64 -97%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 11 $54 −$52 -97%
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 11 $61 −$17 -29%
SC Recife vs. Athletic Club: Draw at halftime? Jun 11 $66 −$35 -54%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets Jun 10 $66 −$40 -60%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 10 $61 −$34 -56%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 10 $66 −$64 -97%
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 10 $65 +$45 +69%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 10 $66 −$65 -98%
T20 Blast, Women: Durham vs Yorkshire Jun 10 $66 −$7 -10%
Valencia vs. Joventut Jun 10 $46 −$33 -71%
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 10 $66 −$39 -60%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 10 $67 +$54 +81%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics Jun 10 $64 −$23 -36%
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres Jun 10 $66 −$31 -47%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 10 $62 −$39 -64%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins Jun 09 $66 −$34 -52%
Spread: UD Las Palmas (-1.5) Jun 09 $30 −$28 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $20 4h
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score BUY No 53¢ $20 5h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY No 54¢ $20 8h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score SELL No 53¢ $17 11h
Spread: Canada (-3.5) BUY Canada 14¢ $12 11h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score BUY No 60¢ $20 14h
Czechia vs. South Africa: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 31¢ $18 19h
Austria vs. Jordan: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 29¢ $18 27h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY No 59¢ $20 27h
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score BUY No 61¢ $20 32h
France vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 30¢ $18 33h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 11¢ $11 37h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score BUY No 59¢ $20 2d
Belgium leading at halftime? BUY No 55¢ $20 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL No 27¢ $10 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 12¢ $11 2d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 23¢ $37 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 50¢ $20 3d
T20 Blast, League 2, Women: Northamptonshire Steelbacks vs Derbyshire BUY Northamptonshire Steelbacks 76¢ $20 3d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 44¢ $20 3d
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY No 45¢ $20 3d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 36¢ $61 3d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 26¢ $28 3d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $66 3d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 13¢ $27 3d
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score SELL No 21¢ $24 3d
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 41¢ $65 3d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 28¢ $44 3d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs New Zealand SELL West Indies 20¢ $36 3d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs New Zealand BUY West Indies 29¢ $55 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $280.14 · official $280.42 (match) · 1132 history records