Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T21:08:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
1E 0x1eda…edfa weather 28 markets active 1h ago coverage 218d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist⚠ Small sample
Total PnL +$24 (+14%) realized +$21 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -2% what you keep after slip
Net edge-2%after slip
Net WR59%break-even
Win rate59%16W / 11L
Drawdown73%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days+$8
14 days−$9
30 days+$10
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 50% +$13
sports 42% +$22
crypto 8% −$14
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +59%
net ROI/market (all)-1.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +10.2% -0.3% 67% 67% +3.0%
≤30d 23 +4.0% -5.9% 57% 57% -3.2%
≤90d 23 +4.0% -5.9% 57% 57% -3.2%
all 27 +8.6% -1.7% 59% 59% +2.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -1.7% 59% +2.0%
10% -11.1% 59% -7.8%
15% -19.7% 44% -16.7%
20% -27.6% 37% -24.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt +13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early 14.264224996230988% → late 3.3561544428255243% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$5 · ×0.94 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.36 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

218d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized+$21
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses16 / 11
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)27 / 28
History coverage218d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown73%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 27 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 86-87°F on June 15? Yes 29¢ 24¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-16%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Minnesota Lynx vs. Las Vegas Aces Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 92-93°F on June 13? Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Phoenix Mercury Jun 14 $9 +$7 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 9? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 10? Jun 11 $4 +$1 +32%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 84-85°F on June 8? Jun 11 $8 +$2 +32%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 37°C on June 8? Jun 09 $9 +$8 +82%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 7? Jun 08 $4 +$5 +137%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 35°C on June 5? Jun 08 $9 +$3 +27%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 26°C on June 6? Jun 07 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on June 6? Jun 07 $3 +$5 +160%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on June 2? Jun 05 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 76°F or higher on June 1? Jun 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 2? Jun 05 $2 −$2 -100%
Chicago Sky vs. Washington Mystics Jun 05 $7 +$7 +95%
Ethereum Up or Down on May 31? Jun 01 $9 −$9 -100%
Phoenix Mercury vs. New York Liberty May 30 $3 −$3 -100%
Canadiens vs. Hurricanes May 30 $7 +$3 +42%
World Championships: Norway vs. Latvia May 29 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C or higher on May 28? May 29 $4 +$5 +121%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on May 26? May 27 $9 +$3 +28%
Will the highest temperature in London be 34°C on May 26? May 27 $6 +$9 +137%
Suns vs. Trail Blazers May 25 $5 +$5 +117%
Kennesaw State vs. Jacksonville State Nov 18 $5 +$6 +133%
Canucks vs. Hurricanes Nov 15 $9 +$4 +41%
Flames vs. Wild Nov 13 $6 −$6 -100%
Stars vs. Predators Nov 09 $13 +$9 +67%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 86-87°F on June 15? BUY Yes 29¢ $2 1h
Minnesota Lynx vs. Las Vegas Aces BUY Minnesota Lynx 43¢ $6 24h
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Phoenix Mercury BUY Los Angeles Sparks 54¢ $9 31h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 92-93°F on June 13? BUY No 55¢ $6 2d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 10? BUY No 75¢ $4 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 9? BUY Up 47¢ $5 6d
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 37°C on June 8? BUY No 54¢ $9 6d
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 84-85°F on June 8? BUY No 75¢ $8 7d
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 7? BUY Yes 41¢ $4 8d
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 26°C on June 6? BUY No 66¢ $7 8d
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on June 6? BUY Yes 37¢ $3 8d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 35°C on June 5? BUY No 78¢ $9 9d
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on June 2? BUY Yes 58¢ $10 12d
Chicago Sky vs. Washington Mystics BUY Washington Mystics 50¢ $7 12d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 2? BUY Yes 38¢ $2 13d
Ethereum Up or Down on May 31? BUY Up 36¢ $9 14d
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 76°F or higher on June 1? BUY Yes 31¢ $1 15d
Phoenix Mercury vs. New York Liberty BUY Phoenix Mercury 34¢ $3 16d
Canadiens vs. Hurricanes BUY Hurricanes 70¢ $7 17d
World Championships: Norway vs. Latvia BUY Latvia 48¢ $3 17d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C or higher on May 28? BUY Yes 44¢ $4 18d
Will the highest temperature in London be 34°C on May 26? BUY Yes 41¢ $6 19d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on May 26? BUY No 77¢ $9 20d
Suns vs. Trail Blazers BUY Suns 46¢ $5 208d
Kennesaw State vs. Jacksonville State BUY Jacksonville State 43¢ $5 210d
Canucks vs. Hurricanes BUY Hurricanes 71¢ $9 212d
Flames vs. Wild BUY Flames 43¢ $6 217d
Stars vs. Predators BUY Stars 60¢ $13 218d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.82 · official $1.82 (match) · 55 history records