Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T11:31:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
1E 0x1ed6…aa98 other 9 markets active 1h ago coverage 138d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$173 (+14%) realized +$177 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +6% what you keep after slip
Net edge+6%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate75%6W / 2L
Drawdown10%max
Avg bet$133per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit56%portable
Net worth$92now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$39
7 days+$39
14 days+$39
30 days+$39
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
tech 55% +$64
other 36% +$47
economics 9% +$54
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)+6.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +18.2% +7.0% 100% 100% +7.0%
≤30d 1 +18.2% +7.0% 100% 100% +7.0%
≤90d 4 +24.4% +12.6% 100% 75% +9.9%
all 8 +17.3% +6.2% 75% 50% +4.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +6.2% 50% +4.3%
10% -4.0% 38% -5.7%
15% -13.3% 25% -14.8%
20% -21.8% 12% -23.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 51% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +22% too few recent
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +17% · $-wt +15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$31 vs −$17 · ×1.81 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×10.84 per $1 lost it wins $10.84
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

138d coverage
Net worth$92
Realized+$177
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses6 / 2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)8 / 9
History coverage138d
Avg bet$133
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown10%
Kalshi-fit56%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 8 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Another critical Cloudflare incident by July 31, 2026? Yes 48¢ 46¢ $96 $92 −$4 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will OpenAI’s market cap be $1.5T or greater at market close on IPO da Jun 24 $216 +$39 +18%
OpenAI $1T+ valuation in 2026? May 25 $180 +$41 +23%
Will Discord’s market cap be less than $15B at market close on IPO day Apr 16 $169 +$10 +6%
Fed rate cut by June 2026 meeting? Mar 29 $106 +$54 +51%
Will Pizza Hut be acquired before 2027? Mar 09 $99 +$7 +7%
OpenAI IPO closing market cap above $1T? Feb 20 $125 −$17 -14%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? Feb 16 $132 $0 +0%
Will anyone be charged over Daycare fraud in Minnesota by June 30? Feb 13 $71 +$34 +48%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Another critical Cloudflare incident by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 48¢ $96 1h
Will OpenAI’s market cap be $1.5T or greater at market close on IPO da SELL No 90¢ $5 1h
Will OpenAI’s market cap be $1.5T or greater at market close on IPO da SELL No 92¢ $250 1h
Will OpenAI’s market cap be $1.5T or greater at market close on IPO da BUY No 76¢ $5 30d
Will OpenAI’s market cap be $1.5T or greater at market close on IPO da BUY No 76¢ $211 30d
OpenAI $1T+ valuation in 2026? SELL Yes 77¢ $221 30d
OpenAI $1T+ valuation in 2026? BUY Yes 62¢ $180 69d
Will Discord’s market cap be less than $15B at market close on IPO day SELL No 94¢ $179 69d
Will Discord’s market cap be less than $15B at market close on IPO day BUY No 89¢ $169 87d
Fed rate cut by June 2026 meeting? SELL No 88¢ $26 87d
Fed rate cut by June 2026 meeting? SELL No 89¢ $134 87d
Fed rate cut by June 2026 meeting? BUY No 59¢ $106 106d
Will Pizza Hut be acquired before 2027? SELL No 58¢ $12 106d
Will Pizza Hut be acquired before 2027? SELL No 59¢ $94 106d
Will Pizza Hut be acquired before 2027? BUY No 55¢ $99 123d
OpenAI IPO closing market cap above $1T? SELL Yes 57¢ $108 123d
OpenAI IPO closing market cap above $1T? BUY Yes 66¢ $125 128d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? SELL Yes 70¢ $122 128d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? SELL Yes 70¢ $10 128d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? BUY Yes 70¢ $132 131d
Will anyone be charged over Daycare fraud in Minnesota by June 30? SELL No 62¢ $105 131d
Will anyone be charged over Daycare fraud in Minnesota by June 30? BUY No 42¢ $71 137d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $92.00 · official $92.00 (match) · 22 history records