Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T06:55:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
1E 0x1ed6…d836 other 9 markets active 2h ago coverage 3d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$199 (-8%) realized −$199 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR56%break-even
Win rate78%7W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$284per market
Trades / day5.5pace
Kalshi-fit11%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 95% −$245
crypto 5% +$41
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +0.1% -9.4% 78% 56% -16.8%
≤30d 9 +0.1% -9.4% 78% 56% -16.8%
≤90d 9 +0.1% -9.4% 78% 56% -16.8%
all 9 +0.1% -9.4% 78% 56% -16.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 56% -16.8%
10% -18.1% 44% -24.7%
15% -26.0% 22% -32.0%
20% -33.3% 11% -38.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 55% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
29% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$62 vs −$319 · ×0.19 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.68 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$199
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)78%
Wins / losses7 / 2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)9 / 9
History coverage3d
Avg bet$284
Trades / day5.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit11%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 9 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $50 +$5 +10%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $533 +$51 +10%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $319 +$87 +27%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $543 −$538 -99%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $485 +$58 +12%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $333 +$152 +46%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $127 +$41 +32%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $62 +$40 +65%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $103 −$100 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 91¢ $50 2h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 91¢ $204 11h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 91¢ $329 11h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 100¢ $406 11h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 65¢ $64 13h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 82¢ $255 13h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $302 36h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $241 36h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 100¢ $543 36h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 89¢ $485 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $485 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 69¢ $168 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $168 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 75¢ $127 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 67¢ $63 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 67¢ $102 2d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 5¢ $38 3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 60¢ $62 3d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 18¢ $65 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 23 history records