Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T04:58:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1E 0x1ed4…6b2d crypto 545 markets active 0h ago coverage 11d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$43 (-4%) realized −$43 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate51%276W / 269L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day49.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$46now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$42
7 days−$59
14 days−$71
30 days−$71
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$71
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-18.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 409 -12.3% -20.7% 48% 47% -18.9%
≤30d 545 -10.1% -18.6% 51% 50% -15.2%
≤90d 545 -10.1% -18.6% 51% 50% -15.2%
all 545 -10.1% -18.6% 51% 50% -15.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover49.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -18.6% 50% -15.2%
10% ← realistic here -26.4% 49% -23.3%
15% -33.5% 44% -30.7%
20% -40.1% 35% -37.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -17% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×0.84 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.86 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

11d coverage
Net worth$46
Realized−$43
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses276 / 269
Open positions0
Markets (closed)545 / 545
History coverage11d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day49.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 545 Trades
no open positions (269 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$2 +185%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$2 +127%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$1 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$2 +138%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$1 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$1 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$3 +212%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$2 +156%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$2 +132%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$2 +122%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$2 +144%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$1 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$1 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$2 +138%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$2 +138%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$2 +145%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$2 +145%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$1 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $1 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $1 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $1 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $1 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $1 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $1 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $1 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $1 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $1 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $1 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $1 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $1 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $45.54 · official $45.54 (match) · 817 history records