Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T07:06:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1E 0x1ed1…033a world 210 markets active 1h ago coverage 179d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$9,038 (-2%) realized −$9,038 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate77%161W / 49L
Whale WR85%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2,036per market
Trades / day10.4pace
Fees−$35est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$362
7 days−$1,049
14 days−$761
30 days−$11,847
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 79% −$9,471
other 15% +$72
sports 5% +$519
finance 1% +$39
politics 0% +$18
crypto 0% −$199
tech 0% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-13.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 -1.3% -10.7% 80% 0% -10.4%
≤30d 56 -2.5% -11.8% 77% 2% -14.6%
≤90d 110 -3.6% -12.8% 76% 3% -11.4%
all 210 -4.2% -13.3% 77% 5% -11.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.4 tr/day
realistic slip~14%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.3% 5% -11.4%
10% ← realistic here -21.6% 1% -19.9%
15% -29.2% 0% -27.6%
20% -36.1% 0% -34.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 85% (≥$2,430) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -6% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
6.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$68 vs −$455 · ×0.15 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.55 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

179d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$9,038
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)77%
Wins / losses161 / 49
Whale WR (big bets)85%
Est. fees paid−$35
Open positions0
Markets (closed)210 / 210
History coverage179d
Avg bet$2,036
Trades / day10.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 210 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $400 +$11 +3%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $3,223 +$59 +2%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $3,822 +$83 +2%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $100 +$1 +1%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $4,950 +$45 +1%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $78 $0 +1%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? Jun 16 $155 +$1 +1%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $300 +$9 +3%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $3,460 +$82 +2%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $112 +$2 +1%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $501 +$19 +4%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $2,015 +$50 +2%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $14,956 +$151 +1%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $92 +$1 +1%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $5,574 +$279 +5%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $503 +$9 +2%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 14 $7,580 −$1,780 -24%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $3,901 +$106 +3%
Israel closes its airspace by June 14? Jun 14 $6,957 −$226 -3%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Jun 14 $6,957 +$45 +1%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 14 $8,566 −$204 -2%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $378 +$10 +2%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 13 $460 −$224 -49%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 17? Jun 13 $343 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 13 $13,051 +$274 +2%
Israel closes its airspace by June 12? Jun 13 $1,246 +$17 +1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $75 +$1 +1%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 19? Jun 12 $167 −$8 -4%
Israel closes its airspace by June 11? Jun 12 $5,002 +$48 +1%
Israel closes its airspace by June 10? Jun 11 $8,338 +$90 +1%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 9? Jun 10 $9,136 +$86 +1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $3,038 −$168 -6%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 09 $2,430 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $682 +$2 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 09 $4,570 +$7 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 08 $5,761 +$205 +4%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 5? Jun 06 $1,606 +$68 +4%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 05 $425 $0 +0%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 7, 2026? Jun 04 $191 +$4 +2%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $50 $0 +1%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3? Jun 04 $1,964 +$82 +4%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? Jun 03 $1,039 +$3 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 03 $570 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $2,779 +$37 +1%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 30 $441 +$9 +2%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 30 $216 −$25 -11%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 29? May 30 $1,343 +$10 +1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 29 $642 +$5 +1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 29 $641 +$1 +0%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 25? May 26 $14,663 −$14,618 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $411 1h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 98¢ $100 1h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 97¢ $100 1h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 97¢ $100 1h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 97¢ $100 1h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? SELL No 100¢ $2,823 1h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 99¢ $5 1h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 97¢ $244 1h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 97¢ $328 1h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 97¢ $69 1h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 97¢ $10 1h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 97¢ $108 1h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 98¢ $2,001 1h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? SELL No 96¢ $459 2h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 97¢ $58 2h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 96¢ $400 2h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $3,802 4h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 98¢ $114 4h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 98¢ $4 4h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 98¢ $31 4h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 98¢ $84 4h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 98¢ $195 4h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 98¢ $75 4h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 98¢ $152 4h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 98¢ $279 4h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 98¢ $40 4h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 98¢ $488 4h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 98¢ $1,958 4h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 98¢ $100 4h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 98¢ $100 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1906 history records