Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T19:33:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1E
0x1ed1…6d66
weather · 548 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$1,794 -9%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$1,659 · open −$58
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialist
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$1,290
Realized−$1,659
Unrealized−$58
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses184 / 742
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions66
Markets (closed)926 / 548
History coverage127d
Avg bet$38
Trades / day7.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%
Chart Positions 66 History 926 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,006
7 days−$1,080
14 days−$1,180
30 days−$1,424
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Viking Therapeutics be acquired before 2027? No 50¢ 72¢ $78 $113 +$35 (+45%)
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting? Yes 44¢ 99¢ $46 $104 +$58 (+126%)
Will Silver (SI) settle at >$115 in June? No 71¢ 99¢ $75 $104 +$29 (+40%)
Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026? No 48¢ 50¢ $100 $104 +$4 (+4%)
Will Tempo launch a token by December 31, 2026? Yes 55¢ 24¢ $219 $95 −$124 (-57%)
Metamask FDV above $700M one day after launch? No 66¢ 70¢ $73 $77 +$5 (+6%)
Will Loopscale launch a token by December 31, 2026? No 36¢ 62¢ $38 $65 +$26 (+69%)
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 24°C or below on June 3? Yes 99¢ 100¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+1%)
Will Google (GOOGL) finish week of June 8 above $345? Yes 99¢ 100¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+1%)
Will Civil Contract win the most seats in the 2026 Armenian National Assembly election? Yes 97¢ 99¢ $48 $50 +$1 (+3%)
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be between $150 and $200? Yes 50¢ 99¢ $25 $50 +$25 (+99%)
Will the Prosperity Party (Prosperity) win the most seats in the 2026 Ethiopian general election? Yes 98¢ 98¢ $49 $49 −$0 (-1%)
Will OpenAI have the top AI model at the end of June 2026? No 50¢ 98¢ $21 $41 +$20 (+96%)
Will White House post 180-199 posts from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Yes 99¢ 100¢ $25 $25 +$0 (+1%)
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? No 59¢ 68¢ $20 $23 +$3 (+14%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 12? Yes 50¢ 100¢ $10 $20 +$10 (+100%)
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 12? Yes 50¢ 100¢ $10 $20 +$10 (+100%)
Modena: Kaitlin Quevedo vs Laura Samson Laura Samson 70¢ 68¢ $20 $19 −$0 (-2%)
Modena: Kaitlin Quevedo vs Laura Samson Kaitlin Quevedo 35¢ 32¢ $20 $18 −$2 (-10%)
Metamask FDV above $2B one day after launch? No 50¢ 88¢ $10 $18 +$8 (+77%)
Will Nansen launch a token by December 31, 2026? No 58¢ 76¢ $12 $16 +$4 (+31%)
GTA 6 launch postponed again? No 50¢ 77¢ $10 $15 +$5 (+54%)
Will Wes Streeting be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026? Yes 15¢ 3¢ $71 $13 −$58 (-82%)
HSBC Championships: Elena Rybakina vs Katie Boulter Elena Rybakina 59¢ 77¢ $9 $12 +$3 (+31%)
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House No 50¢ 56¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+13%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 24°C on May 26? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Opendoor (OPEN) close at $7.00-$8.00 on the final day of trading Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 29°C on June 11? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C or higher on May 28? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on May 30? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 32°C on May 23? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C on June 10? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 20°C or below on June 8? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on May 26? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Solana be between $50 and $60 on May 24? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 13°C on May 24? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 4? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 9? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on May 24? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on May 27? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the Bank of Canada announce an increase at the June meeting? Jun 12 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from May 23 to May 25, 2026? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 23°C or below on May 29? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on May 30? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 16°C on May 22? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on May 30? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 26°C or below on May 2 Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $86,000 on May 25? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 30°C or higher on May 23? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 25°C or below on May 30? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Will "SWIM - BTS" be the #1 song on US Spotify this week? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 35°C or higher on May 26? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 18°C on May 28? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on May 25? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C or below on May 25? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,200 and $2,300 on May 23? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on May 22? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 64-65°F on May 22? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 32°C on June 3? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the price of XRP be greater than $1.90 on May 24? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on May 25? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on May 24? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Donald Trump post 40-59 Truth Social posts from June 2 to June 9, Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on June 3? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on May 23? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on May 23? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on May 23? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 25°C on May 29? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on May 28? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Ma Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on May 29? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 44°C on May 23? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 50% −$97
other 20% −$290
sports 8% +$108
politics 5% −$152
tech 5% +$40
world 3% −$350
finance 3% +$55
economics 3% +$83
culture 2% +$9
crypto 1% −$18
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Modena: Kaitlin Quevedo vs Laura Samson BUY Laura Samson 70¢ $10 4m
Modena: Kaitlin Quevedo vs Laura Samson BUY Laura Samson 70¢ $10 4m
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 72¢ $10 9m
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 50¢ $10 19m
Counter-Strike: Washed vs STATE (BO3) - Dust2.dk Ligaen Group A BUY Washed 67¢ $10 20m
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 81¢ $10 29m
Modena: Kaitlin Quevedo vs Laura Samson BUY Kaitlin Quevedo 35¢ $10 30m
Modena: Kaitlin Quevedo vs Laura Samson BUY Kaitlin Quevedo 35¢ $10 30m
HSBC Championships: Elena Rybakina vs Katie Boulter BUY Elena Rybakina 59¢ $9 1h
Ilkley: Filippo Romano vs Jack Pinnington Jones BUY Filippo Romano 47¢ $10 1h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Aurora Gaming 37¢ $10 1h
Modena: Nuria Brancaccio vs Lucia Bronzetti BUY Lucia Bronzetti 89¢ $10 2h
Tucuman: Guido Justo vs Thiago Cigarran BUY Guido Justo 86¢ $9 2h
Ilkley: Filippo Romano vs Jack Pinnington Jones BUY Filippo Romano 57¢ $10 2h
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 49¢ $10 2h
Stuttgart Open: Jiri Lehecka vs Frances Tiafoe BUY Jiri Lehecka 75¢ $10 2h
Ilkley: Keegan Smith vs Jacob Fearnley BUY Jacob Fearnley 88¢ $10 2h
Cattolica: Francesco Forti vs Andrea Guerrieri BUY Francesco Forti 48¢ $10 2h
Cattolica: Francesco Forti vs Andrea Guerrieri BUY Francesco Forti 48¢ $10 2h
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be betwe SELL Yes 1¢ $0 2h
HSBC Championships: Iva Jovic vs Amanda Anisimova BUY Iva Jovic 88¢ $10 2h
Ilkley: Keegan Smith vs Jacob Fearnley BUY Jacob Fearnley 53¢ $10 3h
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5) BUY Tampa Bay Rays 50¢ $10 3h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 94¢ $9 3h
Stuttgart Open: Jiri Lehecka vs Frances Tiafoe BUY Frances Tiafoe 47¢ $10 3h
Stuttgart Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Taylor Fritz BUY Mattia Bellucci 58¢ $10 3h
HSBC Championships: Iva Jovic vs Amanda Anisimova BUY Amanda Anisimova 62¢ $10 3h
LoL: Misa Esports vs E WIE EINFACH E-SPORTS - Game 1 Winner BUY E WIE EINFACH E-SPORTS 78¢ $9 3h
HSBC Championships: Iva Jovic vs Amanda Anisimova BUY Iva Jovic 62¢ $3 4h
Libema Open: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Kamil Majchrzak BUY Kamil Majchrzak 31¢ $10 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-52.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 552 -76.4% -78.7% 12% 3% -24.9%
≤30d 884 -49.0% -53.8% 19% 3% -16.9%
≤90d 891 -48.4% -53.3% 20% 3% -16.5%
all 926 -47.1% -52.1% 20% 4% -17.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover7.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -52.1% 4% -17.1%
10% -56.7% 2% -25.0%
15% -60.9% 1% -32.3%
20% -64.7% 1% -38.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,290.11 · official $1,290.12 (match) · 2036 history records