Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T10:58:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
1E 0x1ec9…fbf1 crypto 46 markets active 2h ago coverage 385d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$24 (+0%) realized +$24 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate40%18W / 27L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown67%max
Avg bet$157per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$26now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$40
7 days+$40
14 days+$40
30 days+$40
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 52% −$14
economics 16% $0
politics 15% −$1
sports 12% +$8
crypto 3% $0
world 2% +$31
culture 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-8.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +36.1% +23.2% 75% 50% +19.7%
≤30d 5 +28.9% +16.6% 60% 40% +12.8%
≤90d 8 +5.6% -4.5% 50% 25% +1.0%
all 45 +1.0% -8.6% 40% 4% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.6% 4% -9.2%
10% -17.4% 4% -17.9%
15% -25.3% 4% -25.8%
20% -32.7% 2% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 77% · top 2 99% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +12% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
89% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +0% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$1 · ×3.14 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.46 per $1 lost it wins $2.46
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

385d coverage
Net worth$26
Realized+$24
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses18 / 27
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)45 / 46
History coverage385d
Avg bet$157
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown67%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 45 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? Yes 39¢ 38¢ $26 $26 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 25 $58 $0 -0%
Will XRP reach $1.80 June 1-7? Jun 25 $14 $0 +0%
LoL: Top Esports vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 25 $20 +$9 +44%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 25 $31 +$31 +101%
Will Israel Katz be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 04 $38 $0 -0%
Will Sevilla FC win on 2026-05-09? May 07 $10 −$10 -99%
Will the Las Vegas Raiders win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 15 $65 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in March? Apr 15 $18 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets in April 2026? Mar 25 $57 $0 -0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.90 on March 13? Mar 25 $13 $0 +0%
Will the US next strike Iran on February 4, 2026 (ET)? Feb 04 $64 $0 -0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.60 on January 17? Feb 04 $12 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting? Jan 15 $60 $0 -0%
Will Trump nominate Larry Kudlow as the next Fed chair? Jan 06 $52 $0 -0%
Will the price of Solana be above $210 on November 18? Jan 06 $13 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on December 10? Jan 06 $14 $0 +0%
Will the Sacramento Kings win the 2026 NBA Finals? Nov 22 $55 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $108,000 and $110,000 on November Nov 22 $11 $0 +0%
Will 8+ Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Nov 17 $680 $0 +0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Nov 17 $702 −$1 -0%
Will Slavia Pragu win the 2025–26 Champions League? Nov 17 $720 −$1 -0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on Nov 10 $700 −$1 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win Super Bowl 2026? Nov 10 $689 −$1 -0%
Will the price of XRP be above $3.00 on November 4? Nov 10 $10 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from November 7 to November 14, 202 Nov 10 $700 −$1 -0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $4,400 on November 4? Nov 10 $9 $0 +0%
Will the Conservative Liberals win the most seats in the 2025 Netherla Oct 28 $46 $0 -0%
Bitcoin above $106K on August 27? Oct 28 $4 $0 +0%
Solana above $150 on August 27? Oct 28 $3 $0 +0%
Will Sevilla win the 2025–26 La Liga? Sep 17 $38 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1500 in August? Sep 17 $6 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200K in August? Sep 17 $6 $0 +0%
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Aug 27 $35 $0 +0%
Will UCR hold the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the Aug 15 $35 $0 -0%
Will Keir Starmer win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Aug 04 $38 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60K in July? Aug 04 $12 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $80 in July? Aug 04 $11 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $80 in June? Jul 23 $9 $0 +1%
Will FIT-U hold the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following th Jun 19 $300 $0 -0%
Will the Athletics win the 2025 World Series? Jun 19 $307 $0 -0%
Will Elon tweet 350–374 times June 6–13? Jun 11 $308 $0 -0%
Will Auckland City win the FIFA Club World Cup? Jun 11 $307 $0 -0%
Will Robert Lewandowski win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jun 05 $314 $0 -0%
Will Trump announce Arthur Laffer as next Fed Chair? Jun 05 $300 $0 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 05 $310 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $58 2h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 39¢ $26 2h
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $58 2h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 49¢ $31 16d
LoL: Top Esports vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Top Esports 69¢ $20 21d
Will Israel Katz be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $38 21d
Will XRP reach $1.80 June 1-7? BUY No 100¢ $14 21d
Will Israel Katz be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $38 21d
Will Sevilla FC win on 2026-05-09? BUY No 53¢ $10 49d
Will the Las Vegas Raiders win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $39 71d
Will the Las Vegas Raiders win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $26 71d
Will the Las Vegas Raiders win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $65 71d
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets in April 2026? SELL No 100¢ $57 92d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in March? BUY No 100¢ $18 92d
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets in April 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 92d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.90 on March 13? BUY No 100¢ $13 105d
Will the US next strike Iran on February 4, 2026 (ET)? SELL No 99¢ $64 141d
Will the US next strike Iran on February 4, 2026 (ET)? BUY No 99¢ $24 141d
Will the US next strike Iran on February 4, 2026 (ET)? BUY No 99¢ $40 141d
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 160d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.60 on January 17? BUY Yes 100¢ $8 160d
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting? SELL No 100¢ $60 160d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.60 on January 17? BUY Yes 100¢ $4 160d
Will Trump nominate Larry Kudlow as the next Fed chair? SELL No 100¢ $33 170d
Will Trump nominate Larry Kudlow as the next Fed chair? SELL No 100¢ $19 170d
Will Trump nominate Larry Kudlow as the next Fed chair? BUY No 100¢ $52 170d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on December 10? BUY Yes 100¢ $14 197d
Will the price of Solana be above $210 on November 18? BUY No 100¢ $7 220d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 100¢ $35 220d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 100¢ $667 220d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $25.64 · official $25.64 (match) · 115 history records