Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T04:57:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1E
0x1ec8…3b29
sports · 37 markets active 2h ago
0.0score
+$625 +22%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$625 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialistFresh edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$107
Realized+$625
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses15 / 19
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions3
Markets (closed)34 / 37
History coverage204d
Avg bet$77
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 3 History 34 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days+$7
14 days+$2
30 days+$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 99¢ 99¢ $90 $90 −$0 (-0%)
ITF Tauste-Zaragoza: Luisina Giovannini vs Guiomar Maristany Zuleta De Reales Guiomar Maristany Zuleta De Reales 51¢ 50¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-2%)
Set Handicap: Simundza (-1.5) vs Baluska (+1.5) Baluska 50¢ 50¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox Texas Rangers 50¢ 48¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-3%)
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels Tampa Bay Rays 50¢ 50¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Berrettini vs. Comesana: Match O/U 38.5 Under 51¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 21, 1PM ET Up 50¢ 0¢ $232 $0 −$232 (-100%)
Piros vs. Forejtek: Match O/U 21.5 Under 50¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Cretu vs. Vasami: Match O/U 21.5 Under 48¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Miami Marlins vs. Tampa Bay Rays No 50¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 21, 12PM ET Up 50¢ 0¢ $216 $0 −$216 (-100%)
Charaeva vs. Korpatsch: Match O/U 21.5 Under 50¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 21, 2PM ET Up 50¢ 0¢ $556 $0 −$556 (-100%)
Golden Knights vs. Avalanche: O/U 6.5 Over 47¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Roland Garros ATP (Doubles): Granollers/Zeballos vs Bolelli/Vavassori Bolelli/Vavassori 50¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 10.5 Under 51¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Donski vs. Duran: Match O/U 22.5 Under 51¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Hokkaidō Consadole Sapporo vs. Júbilo Iwata: O/U 2.5 Over 51¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
San Diego Padres vs. Washington Nationals Washington Nationals 47¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Radivojevic vs. Ristic: Match O/U 21.5 Under 53¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Zhang vs. Mannarino: Match O/U 23.5 Over 49¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Zhang vs. Mannarino: Match O/U 23.5 Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Hijikata vs. Tiafoe: Match O/U 23.5 Jun 11 $4 +$3 +96%
Set Handicap: Simundza (-1.5) vs Baluska (+1.5) Jun 10 $5 $0 +0%
Yastremska vs. Bejlek: Match O/U 21.5 Jun 09 $4 +$3 +92%
Kokkinakis vs. Barrios: Match O/U 22.5 Jun 08 $4 +$4 +108%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Seattle Mariners vs. Jun 06 $4 +$4 +96%
Donski vs. Duran: Match O/U 22.5 Jun 05 $5 −$5 -100%
Roland Garros ATP (Doubles): Granollers/Zeballos vs Bolelli/Vavassori Jun 04 $6 −$6 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 217.5 Jun 04 $5 +$6 +109%
Radivojevic vs. Ristic: Match O/U 21.5 Jun 03 $3 −$3 -99%
Cretu vs. Vasami: Match O/U 21.5 Jun 02 $6 −$6 -100%
Montedio Yamagata vs. Matsumoto Yamaga FC: O/U 2.5 May 31 $5 +$5 +96%
Detroit Tigers vs. Chicago White Sox May 30 $6 +$5 +93%
Berrettini vs. Comesana: Match O/U 38.5 May 30 $6 −$6 -99%
San Diego Padres vs. Washington Nationals May 28 $6 −$6 -100%
Houston Astros vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 8.5 May 27 $3 +$3 +93%
New York Yankees vs. New York Mets: O/U 8.5 May 27 $3 +$3 +101%
ITF Tauste-Zaragoza: Luisina Giovannini vs Guiomar Maristany Zuleta De May 27 $6 $0 -2%
Set 1 Winner: Griekspoor vs Arnaldi May 26 $6 +$7 +113%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 26 $6 +$6 +100%
Luca Van Assche vs. Patrick Kypson: Total Sets O/U 3.5 May 25 $6 $0 -2%
Hokkaidō Consadole Sapporo vs. Júbilo Iwata: O/U 2.5 May 23 $6 −$6 -99%
ITF Litija: Ziga Sesko vs Theo Papamalamis May 21 $6 +$6 +100%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 10.5 May 18 $3 −$3 -99%
Golden Knights vs. Avalanche: O/U 6.5 May 17 $3 −$3 -98%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Miami Marlins vs. Tam May 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Charaeva vs. Korpatsch: Match O/U 21.5 May 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Piros vs. Forejtek: Match O/U 21.5 May 13 $3 −$3 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - November 21, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Nov 22 $1,086 +$1,086 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 21, 4PM ET Nov 22 $232 +$232 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 21, 3PM ET Nov 22 $311 +$311 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 21, 2PM ET Nov 21 $556 −$556 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 21, 1PM ET Nov 21 $232 −$232 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 21, 12PM ET Nov 21 $216 −$216 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 92% +$626
sports 5% −$1
politics 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Tampa Bay Rays 50¢ $3 1h
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Texas Rangers 50¢ $3 24h
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Texas Rangers 50¢ $1 24h
Zhang vs. Mannarino: Match O/U 23.5 BUY Over 49¢ $0 47h
Zhang vs. Mannarino: Match O/U 23.5 BUY Over 49¢ $4 47h
Hijikata vs. Tiafoe: Match O/U 23.5 BUY Under 51¢ $1 2d
Hijikata vs. Tiafoe: Match O/U 23.5 BUY Under 51¢ $3 2d
Set Handicap: Simundza (-1.5) vs Baluska (+1.5) BUY Baluska 50¢ $5 3d
Set Handicap: Simundza (-1.5) vs Baluska (+1.5) BUY Baluska 50¢ $0 3d
Yastremska vs. Bejlek: Match O/U 21.5 BUY Under 52¢ $3 4d
Yastremska vs. Bejlek: Match O/U 21.5 BUY Under 52¢ $1 4d
Kokkinakis vs. Barrios: Match O/U 22.5 BUY Under 48¢ $0 5d
Kokkinakis vs. Barrios: Match O/U 22.5 BUY Under 48¢ $4 5d
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Seattle Mariners vs. BUY No 51¢ $1 8d
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Seattle Mariners vs. BUY No 51¢ $3 8d
Donski vs. Duran: Match O/U 22.5 BUY Under 51¢ $1 9d
Donski vs. Duran: Match O/U 22.5 BUY Under 51¢ $0 9d
Donski vs. Duran: Match O/U 22.5 BUY Under 51¢ $4 9d
Roland Garros ATP (Doubles): Granollers/Zeballos vs Bolelli/Vavassori BUY Bolelli/Vavassori 50¢ $4 10d
Roland Garros ATP (Doubles): Granollers/Zeballos vs Bolelli/Vavassori BUY Bolelli/Vavassori 50¢ $2 10d
Radivojevic vs. Ristic: Match O/U 21.5 BUY Under 53¢ $3 11d
Cretu vs. Vasami: Match O/U 21.5 BUY Under 48¢ $3 12d
Cretu vs. Vasami: Match O/U 21.5 BUY Under 48¢ $0 12d
Cretu vs. Vasami: Match O/U 21.5 BUY Under 48¢ $2 12d
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 217.5 BUY Under 47¢ $5 13d
Montedio Yamagata vs. Matsumoto Yamaga FC: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 51¢ $5 14d
Berrettini vs. Comesana: Match O/U 38.5 BUY Under 51¢ $6 14d
Detroit Tigers vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Chicago White Sox 51¢ $6 16d
San Diego Padres vs. Washington Nationals BUY Washington Nationals 47¢ $2 16d
San Diego Padres vs. Washington Nationals BUY Washington Nationals 47¢ $3 16d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-12.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +39.3% +26.1% 60% 60% +20.5%
≤30d 26 +3.7% -6.2% 46% 46% -5.5%
≤90d 28 -3.7% -12.9% 43% 43% -10.0%
all 34 -3.1% -12.3% 44% 44% +11.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.3% 44% +11.0%
10% -20.7% 44% +0.3%
15% -28.4% 44% -9.4%
20% -35.4% 44% -18.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $107.40 · official $107.40 (match) · 109 history records