Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T14:00:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
1E 0x1ec8…fa30 crypto 157 markets active 1h ago coverage 130d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$55 (+0%) realized +$55 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate99%154W / 2L
Drawdown68%max
Avg bet$260per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$435now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$8
14 days+$23
30 days+$36
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$76
world 0% −$27
other 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +0.2% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
≤30d 37 +0.2% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
≤90d 148 -0.8% -10.3% 99% 0% -9.4%
all 156 -0.7% -10.2% 99% 0% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.2% 0% -9.4%
10% -18.8% 0% -18.1%
15% -26.6% 0% -26.0%
20% -33.8% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$19 · ×0.03 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.33 per $1 lost it wins $2.33
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

130d coverage
Net worth$435
Realized+$55
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)99%
Wins / losses154 / 2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)156 / 157
History coverage130d
Avg bet$260
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown68%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 156 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 17? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $435 $435 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ethereum dip to $1,650 on June 16? Jun 17 $433 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 16? Jun 16 $433 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $432 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,550 on June 14? Jun 15 $432 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 14? Jun 14 $429 +$3 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 12? Jun 12 $430 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $60 on June 11? Jun 12 $429 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 11? Jun 11 $428 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 10? Jun 10 $428 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 9? Jun 09 $427 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 on June 8? Jun 09 $426 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 8? Jun 08 $425 +$1 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,450 on June 7? Jun 08 $419 +$4 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $1,650 on June 6? Jun 07 $421 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $55 on June 5? Jun 06 $417 +$3 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 5? Jun 05 $416 +$1 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,550 on June 4? Jun 05 $413 +$3 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $413 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 on June 3? Jun 04 $413 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 3? Jun 03 $412 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 2? Jun 02 $412 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on June 1? Jun 01 $412 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on May 31? Jun 01 $411 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on May 30? May 30 $410 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on May 29? May 29 $410 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on May 28? May 28 $408 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on May 27? May 27 $408 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on May 26? May 26 $406 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on May 25? May 25 $406 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,250 on May 24? May 25 $402 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on May 24? May 24 $402 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,950 on May 23? May 24 $404 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on May 21? May 22 $402 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on May 20? May 20 $403 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on May 19? May 19 $401 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $71,000 on May 18? May 19 $403 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on May 18? May 18 $401 +$1 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,850 on May 17? May 18 $399 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on May 17? May 17 $399 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on May 16? May 16 $398 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on May 15? May 15 $400 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $2,150 on May 11? May 12 $399 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on May 11? May 11 $399 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $2,150 on May 10? May 11 $397 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on May 8? May 08 $397 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $100 on May 7? May 07 $397 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 6? May 06 $396 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on May 4? May 04 $396 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on May 1? May 01 $369 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 1? May 01 $27 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 17? BUY Yes 100¢ $435 1h
Will Ethereum dip to $1,650 on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $433 16h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 16? BUY Yes 100¢ $433 29h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $432 2d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,550 on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $432 2d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 14? BUY No 99¢ $429 3d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $430 5d
Will Solana dip to $60 on June 11? BUY No 100¢ $429 5d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 11? BUY Yes 100¢ $428 6d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 10? BUY Yes 100¢ $428 7d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 9? BUY Yes 100¢ $427 8d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 on June 8? BUY No 100¢ $426 8d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 8? BUY Yes 100¢ $425 9d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,450 on June 7? BUY No 99¢ $419 9d
Will Ethereum reach $1,650 on June 6? BUY No 100¢ $421 10d
Will Solana dip to $55 on June 5? BUY No 99¢ $417 11d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 5? BUY No 100¢ $416 12d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,550 on June 4? BUY No 99¢ $413 12d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 4? BUY No 100¢ $413 13d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 on June 3? BUY No 100¢ $413 13d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 3? BUY Yes 100¢ $412 14d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 2? BUY Yes 100¢ $412 15d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on June 1? BUY No 100¢ $412 16d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on May 31? BUY Yes 100¢ $411 17d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on May 30? BUY Yes 100¢ $410 18d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on May 29? BUY Yes 100¢ $410 19d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on May 28? BUY Yes 100¢ $408 20d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on May 27? BUY Yes 99¢ $408 20d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on May 26? BUY No 100¢ $406 21d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on May 25? BUY Yes 100¢ $406 23d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $434.56 · official $434.56 (match) · 331 history records