Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:19:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1E 0x1ec8…6938 other 167 markets active 1h ago coverage 100d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$52 (-0%) realized −$52 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate13%22W / 144L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$140per market
Trades / day6.8pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$56now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$18
14 days−$27
30 days−$40
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 28% −$33
politics 24% −$19
sports 17% −$10
crypto 8% −$3
economics 6% −$5
finance 5% +$1
world 5% −$4
culture 5% −$2
tech 3% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 -0.9% -10.3% 13% 0% -10.2%
≤30d 70 -0.6% -10.1% 10% 0% -9.9%
≤90d 151 -0.5% -10.0% 12% 0% -9.8%
all 166 -0.5% -10.0% 13% 0% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.0% 0% -9.8%
10% -18.6% 0% -18.5%
15% -26.4% 0% -26.3%
20% -33.6% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.65 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.1 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

100d coverage
Net worth$56
Realized−$52
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)13%
Wins / losses22 / 144
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions1
Markets (closed)166 / 167
History coverage100d
Avg bet$140
Trades / day6.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 166 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will McLaren be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? No 98¢ 98¢ $56 $56 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Vegas Golden Knights be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Cha Jun 17 $8 $0 -4%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 17 $43 −$1 -1%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? Jun 17 $148 $0 -0%
Will Australia reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $40 −$1 -2%
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 World Series? Jun 16 $45 $0 -1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 16 $48 +$1 +1%
Will Ferran Torres be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $36 $0 -0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Jun 15 $106 −$2 -2%
Will Japan reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 15 $54 −$1 -2%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 15 $92 $0 -0%
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 14 $114 −$1 -1%
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 14 $319 −$4 -1%
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 13 $95 −$2 -2%
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 13 $322 −$2 -1%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $55 $0 +0%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 12 $211 −$1 -1%
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2026 World Series? Jun 12 $80 $0 -0%
Will Senegal reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $49 −$1 -2%
Will Miami Heat win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 12 $42 $0 -1%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June Jun 11 $53 −$1 -2%
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 11 $92 $0 -0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? Jun 11 $57 $0 +1%
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 10 $314 $0 -0%
Will Netherlands score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $55 −$1 -1%
Will the Baltimore Ravens win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 10 $176 −$1 -0%
Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 10 $153 −$1 -0%
Will Wes Streeting be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in Jun 09 $57 −$1 -1%
Will Bitcoin reach $82,500 in June? Jun 07 $39 $0 -0%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun Jun 06 $31 $0 -0%
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 06 $110 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 06 $278 $0 +0%
Will Ferrari be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 06 $43 $0 +1%
Will South Korea reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $44 −$3 -6%
Will Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 05 $52 $0 -1%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 05 $176 $0 -0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 04 $253 −$1 -0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 04 $458 −$2 -0%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 03 $44 $0 -0%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 Jun 02 $44 −$1 -2%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $224 $0 -0%
Will Sarah Knafo win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 02 $233 −$1 -0%
Will the San Francisco 49ers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 02 $60 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia Eagles win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 01 $47 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 01 $61 $0 +0%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 01 $92 $0 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 31 $93 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 30 $95 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 30 $121 −$1 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 29 $107 −$1 -0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 28 $213 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will McLaren be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $56 1h
Will the Vegas Golden Knights be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Cha SELL No 92¢ $8 1h
Will the Vegas Golden Knights be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Cha BUY No 95¢ $8 9h
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 95¢ $42 10h
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 96¢ $43 14h
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $38 14h
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $38 18h
Will Australia reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 96¢ $39 19h
Will Australia reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $40 26h
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 97¢ $45 27h
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 97¢ $45 33h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 99¢ $49 33h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 98¢ $48 39h
Will Ferran Torres be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $36 40h
Will Ferran Torres be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $36 45h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? SELL No 90¢ $56 46h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $57 2d
Will Japan reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? SELL No 94¢ $53 2d
Will Japan reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 96¢ $54 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $44 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $44 2d
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 97¢ $43 2d
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 97¢ $43 3d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? SELL No 90¢ $49 3d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $49 3d
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 90¢ $65 3d
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 90¢ $65 3d
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 96¢ $49 3d
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 96¢ $49 3d
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL No 91¢ $44 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $56.17 · official $56.17 (match) · 703 history records