Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T19:08:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5
score
1E 0x1ec4…defa sports 244 markets active 1h ago coverage 100d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 100d only
! high turnover
Total PnL +$9,344 (+38%) realized +$9,064 · open +$280
Gross ROI / mkt +28% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -1% what you keep after slip
Net edge-1%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate43%98W / 131L
Whale WR80%big bets
Drawdown66%max
Avg bet$102per market
Trades / day23.2pace
Fees−$396est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$2,780now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$600
7 days+$1,097
14 days−$399
30 days+$636
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 71% +$5,834
other 15% +$1,007
world 8% −$356
finance 5% +$1,515
crypto 1% +$31
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)+16.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 39 +76.5% +59.7% 44% 44% +84.2%
≤30d 87 +11.2% +0.6% 36% 34% +12.7%
≤90d 202 +5.7% -4.4% 36% 35% +12.6%
all 229 +28.3% +16.1% 43% 40% +15.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover23.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +16.1% 40% +15.5%
10% ← realistic here +5.0% 39% +4.4%
15% -5.1% 37% -5.7%
20% -14.4% 35% -14.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +22% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +28% · $-wt +33% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 80% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +68% → late -11% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
5.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$157 vs −$63 · ×2.5 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.87 per $1 lost it wins $1.87
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

100d coverage
Net worth$2,780
Realized+$9,064
Unrealized+$280
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses98 / 131
Whale WR (big bets)80%
Est. fees paid−$396
Open positions29
Markets (closed)229 / 244
History coverage100d ⚠
Avg bet$102
Trades / day23.2
Drawdown66%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 29 History 229 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2026 World Series? Yes $397 $502 +$105 (+26%)
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? Yes $410 $360 −$50 (-12%)
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? Yes $215 $357 +$142 (+66%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $360 $340 −$20 (-6%)
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? Yes $188 $293 +$105 (+56%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $141 $140 −$1 (-1%)
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $80 $82 +$2 (+3%)
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $100 $75 −$25 (-25%)
Will Charlotte Hornets win the 2027 NBA Finals? Yes $55 $74 +$19 (+34%)
Will the Arizona Diamondbacks win the 2026 World Series? Yes $91 $63 −$28 (-30%)
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Yes $69 $62 −$7 (-10%)
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 14¢ $52 $58 +$6 (+12%)
Will the Atlanta Braves win the 2026 World Series? Yes 11¢ $33 $54 +$21 (+64%)
Will Cristiano Ronaldo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $48 $52 +$4 (+9%)
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? Yes $39 $36 −$3 (-7%)
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 Over 32¢ 34¢ $32 $34 +$2 (+5%)
Will Atlanta Hawks win the 2027 NBA Finals? Yes $18 $33 +$15 (+83%)
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 World Series? Yes $22 $30 +$8 (+36%)
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $34 $26 −$8 (-25%)
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $30 $25 −$5 (-17%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026? No 37¢ 47¢ $15 $19 +$4 (+27%)
Spread: Senegal (-1.5) Senegal $11 $15 +$4 (+36%)
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win the 2027 NFL league championship? Yes $9 $15 +$5 (+58%)
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2026 World Series? Yes $13 $12 −$1 (-5%)
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $18 $10 −$8 (-44%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 26 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Sam Houston Bearkats vs. Texas Southern Tigers Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Spread: Rockets (-8.5) Jun 16 $0 −$58 -24344%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $800B and $900B at market close on Jun 16 $76 −$76 -100%
Will the Sacramento Kings win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 16 $0 +$34 +632298%
Spread: Trail Blazers (-8.5) Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Timberwolves vs. Nuggets Jun 16 $0 +$2 +1052%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $900B and $1T at market close on I Jun 16 $16 −$16 -100%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $700B and $800B at market close on Jun 16 $15 −$15 -100%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $500B and $600B at market close on Jun 16 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Lilo & Stitch be the top grossing movie of 2025? Jun 16 $0 −$463 -777992%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 12 $514 +$1,686 +328%
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in June? Jun 12 $118 +$42 +36%
Jalen Brunson: Points O/U 26.5 Jun 11 $71 −$71 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-3.5) Jun 11 $48 −$47 -98%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $117 −$115 -98%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 11 $48 +$46 +96%
Spread: Spurs (-6.5) Jun 10 $30 −$30 -100%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets: O/U 8.5 Jun 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins Jun 10 $30 −$30 -99%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 10 $34 −$34 -98%
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 10 $42 −$42 -99%
Will Wemby Cry During the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 10 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 10 $26 −$25 -98%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 10 $30 −$29 -98%
Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-1.5) Jun 10 $20 +$30 +144%
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres Jun 10 $45 +$35 +79%
Spread: Spurs (-9.5) Jun 10 $23 −$23 -100%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 10 $31 +$19 +60%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 9.5 Jun 10 $36 +$34 +97%
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 10 $39 +$31 +79%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 10 $40 +$35 +86%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins Jun 10 $45 +$35 +76%
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 10 $44 +$36 +83%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 10 $49 +$51 +105%
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 10 $48 +$52 +109%
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 12.5 Jun 10 $51 +$49 +97%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets Jun 10 $56 +$64 +114%
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5) Jun 09 $48 −$48 -100%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 09 $42 −$41 -99%
Washington Nationals vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 04 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March? Jun 04 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in May? Jun 04 $4 −$4 -100%
Spread: Cavaliers (-3.5) Jun 04 $6 −$6 -100%
Houston Astros vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 04 $23 −$23 -100%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 04 $32 −$32 -100%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 04 $188 −$48 -25%
Lakers vs. Thunder: O/U 227.5 Jun 04 $29 −$29 -100%
Spurs vs. Warriors Jun 04 $10 −$10 -100%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego Padres Jun 04 $32 −$32 -100%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 8.5 Jun 04 $41 −$41 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Charlotte Hornets win the 2027 NBA Finals? BUY Yes $3 1h
Will Charlotte Hornets win the 2027 NBA Finals? BUY Yes $1 1h
Will Charlotte Hornets win the 2027 NBA Finals? BUY Yes $2 1h
Will Charlotte Hornets win the 2027 NBA Finals? BUY Yes $0 1h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $48 1h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $48 1h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $48 1h
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $31 1h
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $35 1h
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $103 1h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 32¢ $33 1h
Spread: Senegal (-1.5) BUY Senegal $12 1h
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? BUY Yes $33 7h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $371 7h
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2026 World Series? BUY Yes $20 7h
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? BUY Yes $326 7h
Will the Arizona Diamondbacks win the 2026 World Series? SELL Yes $10 9h
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 World Series? SELL Yes $0 37h
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 World Series? SELL Yes $1 41h
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 World Series? SELL Yes $0 41h
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 World Series? SELL Yes $1 45h
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 World Series? SELL Yes $1 45h
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 World Series? SELL Yes $1 2d
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 World Series? SELL Yes $1 2d
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 World Series? SELL Yes $0 2d
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 World Series? SELL Yes $1 2d
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 World Series? SELL Yes $0 2d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 19¢ $198 4d
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in June? SELL Yes 80¢ $105 4d
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in June? SELL Yes 80¢ $4 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,780.00 · official $2,780.00 (match) · 3500 history records