Wallet analysis

2026-06-30T00:05:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1E 0x1ec2…7ba2 crypto 49 markets active 1h ago coverage 3d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (51 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$132 (-10%) realized −$132 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -28% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -45% what you keep after slip
Net edge-45%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate33%16W / 33L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day50.6pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 62% −$193
other 24% −$89
sports 14% −$174
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (51 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-34.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 49 -28.1% -34.9% 33% 29% -44.5%
≤30d 49 -28.1% -34.9% 33% 29% -44.5%
≤90d 49 -28.1% -34.9% 33% 29% -44.5%
all 49 -28.1% -34.9% 33% 29% -44.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover50.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -34.9% 29% -44.5%
10% ← realistic here -41.1% 22% -49.8%
15% -46.8% 16% -54.7%
20% -52.0% 12% -59.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 54% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -39% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -28% · $-wt -39% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -35% → late -21% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$19 · ×0.53 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.26 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$132
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses16 / 33
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)49 / 49
History coverage3d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day50.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 49 Trades
no open positions (15 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance Jun 29 $177 −$174 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 29 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 29 $10 +$7 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 29 $10 +$6 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 29 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 29 $21 +$2 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 29 $36 −$13 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 29 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 29 $11 +$48 +450%
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 29 $61 +$11 +18%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $238 −$90 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 29 $22 −$1 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 29 $5 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 27 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 27 $39 −$37 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 27 $17 −$17 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 27 $27 −$11 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 27 $11 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 27 $11 +$4 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 27 $6 −$1 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 27 $37 +$38 +102%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 27 $21 −$4 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 27 $21 −$10 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 27 $11 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 27 $26 −$21 -80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 27 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 27 $10 +$2 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 27 $21 −$3 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 27 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 27 $31 −$20 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 27 $6 −$1 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 27 $31 +$10 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 27 $31 −$12 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 27 $21 −$10 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 27 $11 −$1 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 27 $15 +$2 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 27 $11 +$5 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 27 $10 −$5 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 27 $11 −$1 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 27 $10 +$6 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 27 $5 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 27 $21 −$2 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 27 $17 −$17 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 27 $10 +$5 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 27 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 27 $14 +$11 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 27 $84 −$84 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance BUY Germany 42¢ $76 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $10 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $18 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $16 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Down 8¢ $1 1h
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance BUY Germany 72¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $23 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $23 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Up 5¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Up 25¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $58 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 17¢ $11 1h
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 1 Paraguay? SELL Yes 63¢ $72 1h
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 1 Paraguay? BUY Yes 52¢ $61 1h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 7¢ $10 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? SELL Yes 47¢ $148 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 74¢ $238 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET SELL Up 100¢ $62 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 25¢ $11 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET SELL Up 100¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $10 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 179 history records