Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T21:13:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0

score

1E 0x1ec0…f786 other 4 markets active 1h ago coverage 49d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted

Total PnL −$215 (-19%) realized +$34 · open −$249

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip

Net edge-7%after slip

Net WR0%break-even

Win rate100%2W / 0L

Drawdown0%max

Avg bet$283per market

Trades / day0.3pace

Kalshi-fit25%portable

Net worth$51now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 49d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +0%

net ROI/market (all)-7.4%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	2	+2.4%	-7.4%	100%	0%	-7.4%
≤30d	2	+2.4%	-7.4%	100%	0%	-7.4%
≤90d	2	+2.4%	-7.4%	100%	0%	-7.4%
all	2	+2.4%	-7.4%	100%	0%	-7.4%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.3 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-7.4%	0%	-7.4%
10%	-16.2%	0%	-16.2%
15%	-24.3%	0%	-24.3%
20%	-31.7%	0%	-31.7%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 58% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +2% too few recent

Fragile wins

100% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +2% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions

Win / loss size

+$7 vs — no data

Profit factor

— no data

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

49d coverage

Net worth$51

Realized+$34

Unrealized−$249

Win rate (resolved)100%

Wins / losses2 / 0

Open positions2

Markets (closed)2 / 4

History coverage49d

Avg bet$283

Trades / day0.3

Drawdown0%

Kalshi-fit25%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 2 History 2 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026?	Yes	91¢	10¢	$234	$26	−$209 (-89%)
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series?	Yes	5¢	2¢	$66	$25	−$41 (-62%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will GameStop acquire eBay?	Jun 24	$299	+$6	+2%
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	Jun 24	$297	+$8	+3%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will GameStop acquire eBay?	SELL No	86¢	$306	1h
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	SELL No	96¢	$305	1h
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026?	BUY Yes	91¢	$192	23d
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026?	BUY Yes	89¢	$7	23d
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026?	BUY Yes	89¢	$36	23d
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series?	SELL Yes	6¢	$98	38d
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series?	SELL Yes	5¢	$34	41d
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series?	SELL Yes	5¢	$64	42d
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series?	SELL Yes	6¢	$39	43d
Will GameStop acquire eBay?	BUY No	83¢	$299	45d
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series?	BUY Yes	5¢	$301	48d
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	BUY No	93¢	$46	48d
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	BUY No	93¢	$251	48d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $50.55 · official $50.55 (match) · 13 history records