Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T05:15:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
1E 0x1ebd…21cd sports 153 markets active 7h ago coverage 126d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$2,866 (+19%) realized +$2,306 · open +$560
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate40%57W / 85L
Drawdown58%max
Avg bet$99per market
Trades / day2.3pace
Fees−$112est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$1,601now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,553
7 days+$2,726
14 days+$3,264
30 days+$3,139
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 94% +$2,619
other 6% +$164
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-5.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 +57.9% +42.9% 59% 59% +71.8%
≤30d 43 +40.9% +27.5% 53% 53% +44.4%
≤90d 64 +29.7% +17.4% 50% 50% +25.6%
all 142 +5.0% -5.0% 40% 40% +4.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.0% 40% +4.9%
10% -14.1% 35% -5.1%
15% -22.4% 32% -14.3%
20% -30.0% 32% -22.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +39% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -16% → late +26% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$114 vs −$50 · ×2.27 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.52 per $1 lost it wins $1.52
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

126d coverage
Net worth$1,601
Realized+$2,306
Unrealized+$560
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses57 / 85
Est. fees paid−$112
Open positions11
Markets (closed)142 / 153
History coverage126d
Avg bet$99
Trades / day2.3
Drawdown58%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 142 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Scotland vs. Brazil: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 Under 51¢ 80¢ $200 $311 +$111 (+56%)
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 Under 58¢ 76¢ $224 $294 +$70 (+31%)
Scotland vs. Brazil: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Under 27¢ 54¢ $120 $238 +$118 (+98%)
Netherlands vs. Sweden: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Under 26¢ 56¢ $100 $213 +$113 (+113%)
Netherlands vs. Sweden: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 Under 51¢ 82¢ $100 $162 +$62 (+62%)
Jordan vs. Algeria: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 Under 53¢ 81¢ $100 $153 +$53 (+53%)
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Uzbekistan 1st Half O/U 1.5 Under 88¢ 98¢ $100 $111 +$11 (+11%)
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Under 50¢ 74¢ $40 $59 +$19 (+47%)
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs Nuclear TigeRES 50¢ 50¢ $40 $40 +$0 (+0%)
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox: 1st 5 Innings O/U 5.5 Under 28¢ 50¢ $7 $12 +$5 (+79%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 13¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-22%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 61 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Argentina vs. Algeria: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $203 +$182 +90%
Iraq vs. Norway: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $203 +$244 +120%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Saudi Arabia 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $204 +$462 +226%
Belgium vs. Egypt: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $202 +$505 +250%
Belgium vs. Egypt: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $304 +$262 +86%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 15 $101 −$101 -100%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 15 $10 +$5 +46%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score in Second Half Jun 15 $202 +$115 +57%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 14 $71 +$38 +54%
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $14 −$14 -100%
T20 Blast, League 2, Women: Sussex Sharks vs Gloucestershire Jun 14 $41 −$40 -98%
Haiti vs. Scotland: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $304 +$284 +93%
Haiti vs. Scotland: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $204 +$510 +250%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins: 1st 5 Innings O/U 6.5 Jun 13 $20 +$82 +403%
Map Handicap: PR (-1.5) vs Team Vitality (+1.5) Jun 13 $15 −$15 -98%
Counter-Strike: F5 Esports vs Wanted Goons (BO3) - NSTLGA League Playo Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals: 1st 5 Innings O/U 6.5 Jun 11 $7 +$21 +291%
Will the game go to extra innings?: Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Mar Jun 11 $20 +$14 +67%
Argentina vs. Algeria: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $102 −$100 -98%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 11 $272 −$1 -0%
1st 5 Innings Spread: Minnesota Twins (-2.5) Jun 11 $20 +$11 +52%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins: 1st 5 Innings O/U 5.5 Jun 11 $105 +$288 +274%
HSBC Championships (Doubles): Fernandez/Siegemund vs Mboko/Williams Jun 11 $203 −$11 -5%
1st 5 Innings Spread: Chicago Cubs (-2.5) Jun 11 $9 −$9 -99%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets: 1st 5 Innings O/U 5.5 Jun 11 $11 −$11 -98%
Brazil vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 10 $81 +$14 +17%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 Jun 10 $102 −$8 -8%
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 10 $1 −$1 -98%
Gibraltar vs. Kosovo: O/U 4.5 Jun 09 $10 +$10 +101%
Schoolkate vs. Harris: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 Jun 08 $101 −$3 -3%
T20 Asian Games, Qualifier: Nepal vs Hong Kong, China Jun 08 $201 +$64 +32%
Bahrain vs. Syria: Draw at halftime? Jun 08 $307 −$300 -98%
Bahrain leading at halftime? Jun 08 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 07 $306 +$658 +215%
Roland Garros WTA: Marta Kostyuk vs Mirra Andreeva Jun 04 $102 +$116 +114%
Roland Garros ATP: Casper Ruud vs Joao Fonseca Jun 01 $102 +$168 +165%
Will Aryna Sabalenka win the 2026 Women’s French Open? Jun 01 $305 −$300 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Andrey Rublev May 31 $102 −$100 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Joao Fonseca vs Novak Djokovic May 29 $102 +$148 +146%
Roland Garros WTA: Victoria Mboko vs Katerina Siniakova May 28 $203 +$262 +129%
Roland Garros ATP: Raphael Collignon vs Ben Shelton May 28 $204 −$200 -98%
Set Handicap: Sonego (-1.5) vs Herbert (+1.5) May 24 $101 −$100 -99%
Bergs vs. Gea: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 May 18 $101 −$3 -3%
Counter-Strike: Wildcard vs FarmVille (BO3) - Thunderpick World Champi May 02 $10 +$9 +88%
Game Handicap: FURY (-1.5) vs HL tauri Esports (+1.5) Apr 30 $1 −$1 -98%
Rockets vs. Lakers Apr 30 $203 −$200 -98%
Raptors vs. Cavaliers Apr 30 $305 +$316 +104%
Set Handicap: Musetti (-1.5) vs Lehecka (+1.5) Apr 28 $140 +$146 +104%
Madrid Open: Rafael Jodar vs Jesper de Jong Apr 23 $100 +$105 +105%
Spread: Atlanta United FC (-2.5) Apr 22 $4 +$7 +170%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl BUY Nuclear TigeRES 50¢ $41 7h
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 50¢ $41 2d
T20 Blast, League 2, Women: Sussex Sharks vs Gloucestershire BUY Gloucestershire 47¢ $10 2d
T20 Blast, League 2, Women: Sussex Sharks vs Gloucestershire BUY Gloucestershire 46¢ $10 2d
T20 Blast, League 2, Women: Sussex Sharks vs Gloucestershire BUY Gloucestershire 47¢ $10 2d
T20 Blast, League 2, Women: Sussex Sharks vs Gloucestershire BUY Gloucestershire 47¢ $10 2d
Map Handicap: PR (-1.5) vs Team Vitality (+1.5) BUY Paper Rex 25¢ $15 3d
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins: 1st 5 Innings O/U 6.5 BUY Over 20¢ $10 3d
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins: 1st 5 Innings O/U 6.5 BUY Over 19¢ $10 3d
Counter-Strike: F5 Esports vs Wanted Goons (BO3) - NSTLGA League Playo BUY F5 Esports 46¢ $1 4d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score in Second Half BUY No 63¢ $101 4d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score in Second Half BUY No 63¢ $101 4d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 4d
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 BUY Under 59¢ $125 5d
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 BUY Under 57¢ $101 5d
Scotland vs. Brazil: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 27¢ $10 5d
Scotland vs. Brazil: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 27¢ $10 5d
Scotland vs. Brazil: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 BUY Under 52¢ $101 5d
Scotland vs. Brazil: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 BUY Under 51¢ $101 5d
Scotland vs. Brazil: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 27¢ $102 5d
Jordan vs. Algeria: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 BUY Under 53¢ $101 5d
Belgium vs. Egypt: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 28¢ $202 5d
Belgium vs. Egypt: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 BUY Under 53¢ $304 5d
Argentina vs. Algeria: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 BUY Under 52¢ $203 5d
Argentina vs. Algeria: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 27¢ $102 5d
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score in First Half SELL No 71¢ $271 5d
Netherlands vs. Sweden: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 26¢ $102 5d
Netherlands vs. Sweden: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 BUY Under 51¢ $101 5d
Iraq vs. Norway: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 BUY Under 45¢ $203 5d
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins: 1st 5 Innings O/U 5.5 SELL Under 100¢ $394 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,600.75 · official $1,600.75 (match) · 388 history records