Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T14:46:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
1E 0x1ebb…8a0a crypto 8 markets active 1h ago coverage 107d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$101 (-42%) realized −$101 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR57%break-even
Win rate57%4W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$30per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$41now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 107d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 68% −$117
other 28% +$16
finance 4% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +57%
net ROI/market (all)-11.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +64.5% +48.8% 100% 100% +48.8%
≤30d 1 +64.5% +48.8% 100% 100% +48.8%
≤90d 1 +64.5% +48.8% 100% 100% +48.8%
all 7 -2.2% -11.5% 57% 57% -56.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.5% 57% -56.3%
10% -20.0% 57% -60.5%
15% -27.7% 43% -64.3%
20% -34.8% 14% -67.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 57% · top 2 78% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +64% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -52% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$43 · ×0.17 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.22 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

107d coverage
Net worth$41
Realized−$101
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses4 / 3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)7 / 8
History coverage107d
Avg bet$30
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 7 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Yes 68¢ 68¢ $41 $41 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $25 +$16 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Mar 07 $99 −$98 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Mar 07 $32 −$32 -100%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March? Mar 07 $10 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Mar 07 $16 +$6 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Mar 07 $9 +$5 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Mar 07 $5 +$2 +35%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $41 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $42 40h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 60¢ $25 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $94 106d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $5 106d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $10 106d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March? SELL Yes 82¢ $10 106d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $22 106d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET SELL Down 100¢ $22 106d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $16 106d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $7 106d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $5 106d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $14 106d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $9 106d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March? BUY Yes 84¢ $10 106d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $40.70 · official $40.70 (match) · 17 history records