Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T08:40:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1E 0x1eba…e00c sports 89 markets active 2h ago coverage 91d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$1,822 (-33%) realized −$1,833 · open +$11
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate61%54W / 34L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$61per market
Trades / day3.2pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$371now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$26
7 days+$28
14 days+$27
30 days+$144
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 60% +$152
other 39% −$1,906
world 1% −$59
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-17.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +10.7% +0.2% 100% 33% -7.1%
≤30d 22 +7.3% -2.9% 95% 32% -4.6%
≤90d 86 -9.5% -18.1% 60% 38% -42.2%
all 88 -8.6% -17.3% 61% 39% -42.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.3% 39% -42.1%
10% -25.2% 34% -47.6%
15% -32.4% 28% -52.7%
20% -39.1% 22% -57.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 52% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -36% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
37% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -36% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -29% → late +12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$64 · ×0.1 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.16 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

91d coverage
Net worth$371
Realized−$1,833
Unrealized+$11
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses54 / 34
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions1
Markets (closed)88 / 89
History coverage91d
Avg bet$61
Trades / day3.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 88 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-In Team Liquid 97¢ 100¢ $360 $371 +$11 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 20 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-In Jun 29 $350 +$7 +2%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Jun 28 $340 +$14 +4%
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-In Jun 28 $340 +$4 +1%
LoL: Kiwoom DRX vs FlyQuest (BO1) - Cross Regional Group Stage Jun 27 $3 $0 +8%
LoL Cross Regional 2026: DNS vs LOS Jun 27 $3 $0 +7%
LoL: DN SOOPers vs FlyQuest (BO1) - Cross Regional Group Stage Jun 26 $3 +$1 +18%
LoL: Kiwoom DRX vs Cloud9 (BO1) - Cross Regional Group Stage Jun 26 $3 $0 +6%
LoL Cross Regional 2026: DK vs FLY Jun 26 $3 +$1 +24%
LoL: Kiwoom DRX vs LOS (BO1) - Cross Regional Group Stage Jun 26 $3 +$1 +24%
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 4 Winner Jun 21 $3 −$3 -100%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner Jun 21 $3 $0 +7%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner Jun 21 $3 +$1 +46%
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 1 Winner Jun 19 $1 $0 +28%
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 2 Winner Jun 19 $3 $0 +5%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 15 $241 +$18 +7%
LoL: Top Esports vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 09 $240 +$6 +3%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs HANJIN BRION (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 07 $240 +$7 +3%
LoL: EDward Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 05 $240 +$5 +2%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs GIANTX (BO5) - LEC Playoffs Jun 02 $240 +$8 +4%
LoL: HANJIN BRION vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 31 $120 +$10 +8%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Natus Vincere (BO5) - LEC Playoffs May 31 $121 +$43 +36%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs T1 (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 30 $121 +$19 +16%
LoL: DN SOOPers vs Nongshim Red Force (BO3) - Esports World Cup Korea May 29 $1 $0 +44%
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 29 $1 +$1 +60%
LoL: DOCISK vs devils.one (BO3) - Rift Legends Regular Season May 29 $1 +$1 +65%
LoL: Team Vitality vs Movistar KOI (BO5) - LEC Playoffs May 29 $1 +$1 +65%
LoL: Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks Gaming vs GAM Esports (BO3) - Esports Worl May 29 $1 +$1 +67%
LoL: RED Canids vs FURIA Esports (BO5) - CBLOL Playoffs May 29 $1 +$1 +70%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO3) - LCK Challengers Leagu May 29 $1 +$1 +73%
LoL: LOUD vs LOS (BO5) - CBLOL Playoffs May 29 $1 +$1 +76%
LoL: TLN Pirates vs Karmine Corp Blue (BO3) - LFL Playoffs May 29 $1 +$1 +83%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs May 29 $1 +$1 +83%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Movistar KOI (BO5) - Esports World Cup EMEA Quali May 29 $1 +$2 +158%
LoL: Solary vs Karmine Corp Blue (BO5) - LFL Playoffs May 29 $3 $0 +10%
LoL: Once Upon A Team vs mCon esports (BO5) - Road Of Legends Playoffs May 29 $3 +$2 +52%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs Kiwoom DRX (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 29 $3 +$2 +65%
LoL: Gen.G vs HANJIN BRION (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 29 $120 +$13 +11%
LoL: BIG vs G2 NORD (BO5) - Prime League 1st Division Playoffs May 27 $3 −$3 -100%
LoL: Ozarox Esports vs PCIFIC (BO5) - TCL Playoffs May 26 $3 −$3 -99%
LoL: DN SOOPers Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy (BO3) - LCK Ch May 26 $3 −$3 -99%
LoL: TLN Pirates vs Vitality.Bee (BO3) - LFL Playoffs May 21 $1 −$1 -100%
LoL: PCIFIC vs Bushido Wildcats (BO5) - TCL Playoffs May 20 $1 $0 -9%
LoL: Team Orange Gaming vs E WIE EINFACH E-SPORTS (BO5) - Prime League May 20 $1 −$1 -99%
LoL: paiN Gaming Academy vs INTZ e-Sports (BO5) - Circuito Desafiante May 19 $1 −$1 -99%
LoL: Barcząca Esports vs Forsaken (BO3) - Rift Legends Regular Season May 19 $1 −$1 -99%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs Nongshim Red Force (BO3) - Esports World Cup Korea Q May 18 $1 −$1 -99%
LoL: DN SOOPers Challengers vs Kiwoom DRX Challengers (BO3) - LCK Chal May 17 $1 −$1 -99%
LoL: FlyQuest vs LYON (BO3) - LCS Regular Season May 17 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Australia be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2026 Grand Final? May 17 $598 −$598 -100%
Will Italy be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026? May 16 $6 +$16 +262%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational BUY Team Liquid 97¢ $360 1h
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-In SELL T1 100¢ $357 1h
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-In BUY T1 98¢ $350 3h
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational BUY Karmine Corp 96¢ $340 26h
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-In SELL T1 100¢ $344 27h
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-In BUY T1 99¢ $340 28h
LoL Cross Regional 2026: DNS vs LOS BUY DNS 93¢ $3 45h
LoL: Kiwoom DRX vs FlyQuest (BO1) - Cross Regional Group Stage BUY FlyQuest 92¢ $3 46h
LoL: DN SOOPers vs FlyQuest (BO1) - Cross Regional Group Stage BUY FlyQuest 84¢ $3 2d
LoL: Kiwoom DRX vs Cloud9 (BO1) - Cross Regional Group Stage BUY Kiwoom DRX 94¢ $3 2d
LoL Cross Regional 2026: DK vs FLY BUY DK 80¢ $3 2d
LoL: Kiwoom DRX vs LOS (BO1) - Cross Regional Group Stage SELL LOS 75¢ $4 2d
LoL: Kiwoom DRX vs LOS (BO1) - Cross Regional Group Stage BUY LOS 59¢ $3 2d
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 93¢ $3 7d
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 68¢ $3 7d
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 1 Winner SELL KT Rolster Challengers 100¢ $1 9d
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 2 Winner SELL T1 Academy 100¢ $3 9d
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 4 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 86¢ $3 9d
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 Academy 95¢ $3 9d
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 1 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 77¢ $1 9d
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs BUY LYON 93¢ $241 14d
LoL: Top Esports vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Top Esports 97¢ $240 21d
LoL: Dplus KIA vs HANJIN BRION (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY Dplus KIA 97¢ $240 22d
LoL: EDward Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Bilibili Gaming 98¢ $240 25d
LoL: Karmine Corp vs GIANTX (BO5) - LEC Playoffs BUY Karmine Corp 96¢ $120 27d
LoL: Karmine Corp vs GIANTX (BO5) - LEC Playoffs BUY Karmine Corp 97¢ $120 27d
LoL: HANJIN BRION vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 BUY Hanwha Life Esports 92¢ $120 29d
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Natus Vincere (BO5) - LEC Playoffs BUY Karmine Corp 73¢ $121 29d
LoL: BNK FEARX vs T1 (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 SELL T1 100¢ $139 29d
LoL: BNK FEARX vs T1 (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 BUY T1 86¢ $121 30d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $371.24 · official $371.24 (match) · 335 history records