Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:37:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
1E 0x1eba…ff9c sports 439 markets active 1h ago coverage 39d
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (70 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$11,685 (+17%) realized +$11,665 · open +$20
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate32%137W / 291L
Whale WR43%big bets
Drawdown26%max
Avg bet$157per market
Trades / day70.4pace
Fees−$1,368est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$967now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3,569
7 days+$8,288
14 days+$9,714
30 days+$10,576
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 96% +$9,428
other 4% +$1,332
crypto 0% +$543
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (70 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-1.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 66 +106.9% +87.2% 50% 48% +62.2%
≤30d 314 +16.2% +5.2% 34% 34% +8.6%
≤90d 428 +9.0% -1.4% 32% 32% +5.6%
all 428 +9.0% -1.4% 32% 32% +5.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover70.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -1.4% 32% +5.6%
10% ← realistic here -10.8% 32% -4.5%
15% -19.5% 31% -13.7%
20% -27.3% 31% -22.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +17% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt +17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 43% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -14% → late +31% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
6.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$366 vs −$134 · ×2.74 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.29 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

39d coverage
Net worth$967
Realized+$11,665
Unrealized+$20
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses137 / 291
Whale WR (big bets)43%
Est. fees paid−$1,368
Open positions11
Markets (closed)428 / 439
History coverage39d
Avg bet$157
Trades / day70.4
Drawdown26%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 428 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 Over 45¢ 44¢ $270 $261 −$9 (-3%)
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Over 26¢ 25¢ $156 $150 −$6 (-4%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 13¢ $101 $134 +$33 (+32%)
United States vs. Australia: O/U 4.5 Over 13¢ 13¢ $130 $130 +$0 (+0%)
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 Over 13¢ 12¢ $78 $72 −$6 (-8%)
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 Over 29¢ 28¢ $72 $71 −$1 (-2%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $45 $59 +$14 (+31%)
United States vs. Australia: O/U 3.5 Over 27¢ 28¢ $44 $45 +$1 (+2%)
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 4.5 Over 14¢ 14¢ $32 $31 −$1 (-4%)
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $9 $8 −$2 (-17%)
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-25%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 285 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $52 +$148 +284%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $26 +$174 +680%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $33 −$32 -98%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $65 −$64 -98%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $125 +$317 +254%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $284 +$797 +280%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $69 +$24 +34%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $470 +$577 +123%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $59 +$2 +3%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $143 +$457 +319%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $276 +$1,049 +379%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $95 +$155 +163%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $66 −$65 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $111 −$109 -98%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 5.5 Jun 16 $54 −$52 -97%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $170 −$166 -98%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $68 +$265 +388%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $118 −$116 -98%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $136 +$112 +83%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $73 +$127 +172%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $31 −$30 -97%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $30 +$258 +874%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $68 +$188 +278%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $33 +$167 +510%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $51 +$40 +79%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $73 +$127 +172%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $18 −$18 -98%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $1,088 +$1,841 +169%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $1,600 +$1,400 +88%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 Jun 14 $209 +$1,089 +521%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $510 −$502 -98%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $173 −$169 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $196 +$184 +94%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $79 −$78 -99%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $62 −$61 -98%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $114 −$114 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $273 +$367 +134%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $160 −$156 -98%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $318 −$312 -98%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $45 −$45 -100%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 4.5 Jun 13 $56 −$54 -98%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $146 −$144 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $74 −$72 -98%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $15 +$285 +1845%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $150 −$149 -99%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 4.5 Jun 13 $239 −$236 -99%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $484 −$477 -98%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $116 +$184 +158%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $79 +$321 +407%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 5.5 Jun 13 $32 −$32 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 29¢ $30 1h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 14¢ $33 1h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 29¢ $44 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 13¢ $13 4h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 26¢ $27 4h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 12¢ $12 11h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 25¢ $26 11h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 16¢ $33 11h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 32¢ $65 11h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 13¢ $133 11h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 27¢ $45 11h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 13¢ $80 17h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 26¢ $159 17h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 45¢ $274 17h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 50¢ $109 17h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 22¢ $125 18h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 34¢ $28 24h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 34¢ $23 24h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 56¢ $221 24h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 85¢ $1,031 24h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 20¢ $16 25h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 39¢ $38 25h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? SELL No 28¢ $61 25h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $69 25h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 22¢ $50 25h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 26¢ $59 25h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 25¢ $26 26h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 38¢ $73 27h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 38¢ $21 27h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 38¢ $1 27h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $967.22 · official $967.24 (match) · 2928 history records