Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T11:50:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
1E 0x1eb9…2e4c other 14 markets active 1h ago coverage 5d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$591 (-14%) realized −$589 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR58%break-even
Win rate67%8W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$296per market
Trades / day3.4pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit43%portable
Net worth$294now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 70% −$524
sports 30% −$83
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +58%
net ROI/market (all)-21.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -13.4% -21.7% 67% 58% -23.8%
≤30d 12 -13.4% -21.7% 67% 58% -23.8%
≤90d 12 -13.4% -21.7% 67% 58% -23.8%
all 12 -13.4% -21.7% 67% 58% -23.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.7% 58% -23.8%
10% -29.2% 25% -31.1%
15% -36.0% 25% -37.7%
20% -42.3% 17% -43.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 69% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -16% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late -18% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$99 vs −$349 · ×0.28 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.57 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$294
Realized−$589
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses8 / 4
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions2
Markets (closed)12 / 14
History coverage5d
Avg bet$296
Trades / day3.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit43%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 12 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 Over 76¢ 76¢ $212 $211 −$1 (-1%)
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Yes 91¢ 90¢ $83 $83 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $242 −$233 -96%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $399 +$48 +12%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $117 +$43 +37%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $201 +$37 +18%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $262 +$56 +21%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $502 −$500 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $401 +$48 +12%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $200 +$15 +7%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $446 +$254 +57%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $252 −$250 -99%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $410 +$288 +70%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $415 −$412 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 91¢ $84 1h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 76¢ $214 1h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 3¢ $9 14h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 78¢ $242 17h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 89¢ $160 27h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 89¢ $238 32h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 72¢ $117 40h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 84¢ $201 40h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 82¢ $262 2d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 87¢ $502 2d
United States vs. Australia: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 93¢ $200 2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $401 3d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $446 3d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 73¢ $252 3d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $410 4d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $415 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $293.53 · official $293.53 (match) · 24 history records