Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T05:15:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1E 0x1eb5…f423 other 41 markets active 2h ago coverage 492d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$11 (+1%) realized +$11 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate50%20W / 20L
Drawdown31%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$34now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$5
14 days−$5
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 51% −$1
other 18% +$1
politics 14% $0
sports 6% +$10
crypto 4% +$1
economics 3% $0
tech 2% $0
weather 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-10.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -4.0% -13.1% 0% 0% -14.8%
≤30d 10 -2.8% -12.0% 30% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 10 -2.8% -12.0% 30% 0% -9.7%
all 40 -0.9% -10.4% 50% 5% -8.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.4% 5% -8.5%
10% -18.9% 2% -17.2%
15% -26.8% 2% -25.2%
20% -33.9% 2% -32.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 54% · top 2 75% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
90% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late -6% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.29 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×2.15 per $1 lost it wins $2.15
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

492d coverage
Net worth$34
Realized+$11
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses20 / 20
Open positions1
Markets (closed)40 / 41
History coverage492d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown31%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 40 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? No 66¢ 66¢ $34 $34 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 24 $37 $0 +0%
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? Jun 23 $3 $0 +0%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 22 $38 −$5 -12%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 04 $103 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 03 $79 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 02 $101 −$1 -0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 02 $32 $0 -0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 02 $38 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 01 $72 +$4 +6%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 27 $4 −$1 -22%
Will Botafogo RJ win the FIFA Club World Cup? Dec 10 $2 $0 +3%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2025 World Series? Jun 26 $18 $0 +1%
Will Mikie Sherrill win the 2025 Democratic Primary for governor of Ne Jun 10 $5 $0 -3%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before July? Jun 09 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 08 $5 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after June 2025 meeting? Jun 08 $5 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum dip to $1600 in May? Jun 02 $2 $0 +1%
Will the next Pope be from North America? May 09 $2 −$2 -100%
Will John-Ion Banu-Muscel advance to the Romanian Presidential Electio May 07 $23 $0 +0%
Will Sebastian-Constantin Popescu advance to the Romanian Presidential Apr 19 $20 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $78000 and $80000 on Apr 18? Apr 19 $19 +$1 +4%
Will Trump meet with Lai Ching-te in his first 100 days? Apr 17 $20 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $110k in April? Apr 16 $20 $0 +0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2025 World Series? Apr 16 $1 $0 +11%
Will Trump pardon himself in his first 100 days? Apr 14 $24 $0 +0%
Will Lazio win the UEFA Europa League? Apr 13 $22 +$2 +9%
Will Ethereum reach $2600 in April? Apr 04 $1 $0 -12%
Will Lautaro Martinez be the top Champions League scorer? Apr 03 $22 $0 +0%
Will xAI have the top AI model on March 31? Apr 03 $21 $0 +1%
Will the Minnesota Wild win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 30 $1 $0 -26%
Will Elon go on Daily Show before April? Mar 30 $21 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 525-549 times March 21-28? Mar 29 $21 $0 +1%
March Madness: Will 0 teams seeded #1 make the Final 4? Mar 27 $20 $0 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Mar 24 $21 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be between 62-63°F on March 23? Mar 24 $21 $0 +1%
Fact Check: Did the U.S. hit Iranian spy ship? Mar 23 $21 $0 +1%
Will Elena Lasconi win the Romanian Presidential election by 0-5%? Mar 19 $20 $0 +2%
Kansas State vs. Cincinnati Mar 05 $22 −$1 -4%
Will Trump say 'Greenland' during the 2025 State of the Union? Mar 04 $22 $0 -1%
Bryant vs. Vermont Mar 04 $11 +$11 +100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 66¢ $34 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 87¢ $37 10h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 87¢ $37 28h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL Yes 7¢ $3 45h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY Yes 7¢ $2 2d
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY Yes 7¢ $0 2d
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 52¢ $9 2d
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 52¢ $24 2d
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 59¢ $38 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 45¢ $4 21d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 45¢ $31 21d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 45¢ $11 21d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 45¢ $23 21d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $41 21d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $41 21d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 69¢ $42 22d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 69¢ $42 22d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $32 22d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $32 22d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $32 23d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $6 23d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $38 23d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 61¢ $31 23d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 61¢ $5 23d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 61¢ $2 23d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 61¢ $38 23d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 62¢ $38 23d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 55¢ $34 23d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 70¢ $34 24d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 71¢ $35 24d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $33.91 · official $33.41 (match) · 111 history records