Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T12:26:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1E 0x1eb5…0211 sports 9 markets active 1h ago coverage 4d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$12 (-2%) realized −$12 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -24% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -37% what you keep after slip
Net edge-37%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$53per market
Trades / day9.0pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 76% −$21
other 23% −$3
crypto 1% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-31.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -24.5% -31.7% 0% 0% -14.5%
≤30d 9 -24.5% -31.7% 0% 0% -14.5%
≤90d 9 -24.5% -31.7% 0% 0% -14.5%
all 9 -24.5% -31.7% 0% 0% -14.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -31.7% 0% -14.5%
10% -38.3% 0% -22.6%
15% -44.2% 0% -30.1%
20% -49.7% 0% -37.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -25% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
— vs −$3 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$12
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 9
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions0
Markets (closed)9 / 9
History coverage4d
Avg bet$53
Trades / day9.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 9 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Scotland vs. Brazil: Team to Take First Corner Jun 24 $17 −$9 -53%
Lucas Paquetá: 1+ assists Jun 24 $111 −$3 -2%
Scotland vs. Brazil: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Jun 24 $334 −$10 -3%
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 23 $8 $0 -5%
Netherlands leading at halftime? Jun 20 $2 $0 -6%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany O/U 4.5 Corners Jun 20 $3 −$1 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 20 $2 −$2 -97%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: 2nd Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $1 $0 -8%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: 2nd Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $2 $0 -6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Scotland vs. Brazil: Team to Take First Corner SELL Scotland 36¢ $2 46m
Scotland vs. Brazil: Team to Take First Corner SELL Scotland 37¢ $4 46m
Lucas Paquetá: 1+ assists SELL Yes 29¢ $46 49m
Lucas Paquetá: 1+ assists BUY Yes 29¢ $15 52m
Lucas Paquetá: 1+ assists BUY Yes 29¢ $33 55m
Lucas Paquetá: 1+ assists SELL Yes 29¢ $32 1h
Lucas Paquetá: 1+ assists BUY Yes 29¢ $33 1h
Lucas Paquetá: 1+ assists SELL Yes 29¢ $2 1h
Lucas Paquetá: 1+ assists SELL Yes 29¢ $28 1h
Lucas Paquetá: 1+ assists BUY Yes 29¢ $26 1h
Lucas Paquetá: 1+ assists BUY Yes 29¢ $4 1h
Scotland vs. Brazil: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners SELL Under 40¢ $26 3h
Scotland vs. Brazil: Team to Take First Corner SELL Scotland 94¢ $3 4h
Scotland vs. Brazil: Team to Take First Corner BUY Scotland 94¢ $10 4h
Scotland vs. Brazil: Team to Take First Corner BUY Scotland 94¢ $7 4h
Scotland vs. Brazil: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners BUY Under 41¢ $28 4h
Scotland vs. Brazil: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners SELL Over 59¢ $58 4h
Scotland vs. Brazil: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners BUY Over 60¢ $61 4h
Scotland vs. Brazil: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners SELL Over 60¢ $120 14h
Scotland vs. Brazil: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners BUY Over 60¢ $122 14h
Scotland vs. Brazil: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners SELL Over 60¢ $99 14h
Scotland vs. Brazil: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners BUY Over 61¢ $102 14h
Scotland vs. Brazil: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners SELL Over 59¢ $21 14h
Scotland vs. Brazil: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners BUY Over 60¢ $21 14h
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 11.5 Total Corners SELL Under 76¢ $4 15h
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 11.5 Total Corners SELL Under 76¢ $4 15h
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 11.5 Total Corners BUY Under 80¢ $4 15h
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 11.5 Total Corners BUY Under 77¢ $4 15h
Netherlands leading at halftime? SELL Yes 42¢ $2 3d
Netherlands leading at halftime? BUY Yes 43¢ $2 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 37 history records