Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T03:57:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
1E 0x1eac…7664 other 12 markets active 0h ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$5 (+3%) realized +$5 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR58%break-even
Win rate67%8W / 4L
Drawdown47%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day7.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit25%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 91% +$16
world 5% −$5
sports 4% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +58%
net ROI/market (all)-0.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +10.1% -0.4% 67% 58% -3.9%
≤30d 12 +10.1% -0.4% 67% 58% -3.9%
≤90d 12 +10.1% -0.4% 67% 58% -3.9%
all 12 +10.1% -0.4% 67% 58% -3.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -0.4% 58% -3.9%
10% -10.0% 33% -13.1%
15% -18.7% 25% -21.5%
20% -26.6% 25% -29.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 49% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +10% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late +20% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×0.98 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.96 per $1 lost it wins $1.96
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses8 / 4
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)12 / 12
History coverage4d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day7.5
Drawdown47%
Kalshi-fit25%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 12 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $44 −$3 -6%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $50 +$5 +11%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $5 +$3 +67%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $5 +$3 +60%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $3 −$1 -26%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $8 +$1 +17%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $5 +$3 +52%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 18 $7 −$5 -72%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $5 $0 +8%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $2 −$1 -36%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $5 +$1 +21%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $4 +$1 +24%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 39¢ $13 1m
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 30¢ $3 55m
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 46¢ $10 1h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 48¢ $29 1h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 49¢ $30 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 90¢ $50 3h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 59¢ $5 8h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 62¢ $5 9h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 25h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 25h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 76¢ $4 25h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 47¢ $3 26h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 47¢ $5 26h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 48¢ $2 26h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? SELL Yes 30¢ $2 26h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $2 27h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 47¢ $3 27h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 65¢ $5 32h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 80¢ $5 34h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 73¢ $5 35h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? SELL Yes 3¢ $0 2d
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 2d
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? SELL Yes 11¢ $1 2d
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 2d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 87¢ $6 2d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $5 3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 81¢ $5 3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 64¢ $4 3d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 8¢ $2 4d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 22¢ $2 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 36 history records