Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T21:02:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
1E 0x1eab…4822 sports 130 markets active 0h ago coverage 366d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$10,222 (+17%) realized +$10,437 · open −$215
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -3% what you keep after slip
Net edge-3%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate55%69W / 57L
Whale WR76%big bets
Drawdown59%max
Avg bet$472per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$720est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$1,285now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$582
7 days−$5,706
14 days+$6,077
30 days+$10,114
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 87% +$10,124
other 11% −$61
world 1% −$764
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)-2.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 63 -23.2% -30.5% 37% 37% -31.5%
≤30d 124 +9.3% -1.1% 56% 56% +5.9%
≤90d 124 +9.3% -1.1% 56% 56% +5.9%
all 126 +7.6% -2.6% 55% 55% +4.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.6% 55% +4.9%
10% -12.0% 54% -5.2%
15% -20.5% 51% -14.3%
20% -28.3% 48% -22.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +17% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt +16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 76% (≥$517) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +38% → late -23% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$427 vs −$350 · ×1.22 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.48 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

366d coverage
Net worth$1,285
Realized+$10,437
Unrealized−$215
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses69 / 57
Whale WR (big bets)76%
Est. fees paid−$720
Open positions4
Markets (closed)126 / 130
History coverage366d
Avg bet$472
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown59%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 126 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Under 47¢ 86¢ $400 $736 +$336 (+84%)
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Vitality 47¢ 52¢ $500 $548 +$48 (+10%)
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs Team Falcons (+1.5) Vitality 41¢ 0¢ $300 $0 −$300 (-100%)
United States vs. Australia: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Under 43¢ 0¢ $300 $0 −$300 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 19 $305 +$325 +107%
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 19 $406 +$463 +114%
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) Jun 19 $406 −$400 -98%
Spread: Canada (-2.5) Jun 19 $406 +$410 +101%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $306 −$300 -98%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 6.5 Jun 18 $407 −$400 -98%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 18 $682 +$460 +67%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $506 +$301 +60%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Switzerland O/U 5.5 Corners Jun 18 $811 +$618 +76%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $305 −$300 -98%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $308 −$300 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $609 −$600 -98%
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) Jun 18 $508 −$500 -98%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $507 −$500 -99%
Exact Score: Ghana 0 - 0 Panama? Jun 17 $204 −$200 -98%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $506 +$341 +67%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $203 +$205 +101%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $306 +$505 +165%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 17 $607 +$410 +67%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $414 +$207 +50%
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $306 +$760 +248%
Exact Score: France 0 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $204 −$200 -98%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $102 +$210 +206%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $203 −$200 -99%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $305 −$300 -98%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $305 +$426 +140%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $304 +$273 +90%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $204 +$485 +238%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $304 +$262 +86%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BIG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 14 $102 −$102 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $165 −$165 -100%
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 14 $203 −$203 -100%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs 9z (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 14 $304 −$304 -100%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs GamerLegion (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 14 $304 −$304 -100%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs GamerLegion - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $304 −$304 -100%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 14 $304 −$304 -100%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 14 $51 −$51 -100%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 14 $304 −$304 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $204 −$204 -100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $305 −$305 -100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $404 −$404 -100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $204 −$204 -100%
Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs TheMongolz (+1.5) Jun 14 $305 −$305 -100%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $405 −$405 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $305 −$305 -100%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs GamerLegion (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 14 $305 −$305 -100%
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+1.5) Jun 14 $506 −$506 -100%
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) Jun 14 $406 −$406 -100%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 14 $406 −$406 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 14 $406 −$406 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 47¢ $406 24m
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Vitality 47¢ $508 25m
United States vs. Australia: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Under 43¢ $305 1h
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs Team Falcons (+1.5) BUY Vitality 41¢ $305 1h
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 BUY Over 48¢ $305 4h
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 BUY Over 46¢ $406 6h
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) BUY Spirit 48¢ $406 7h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $306 21h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 43¢ $407 21h
Spread: Canada (-2.5) BUY Canada 49¢ $406 22h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Under 62¢ $506 24h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 48¢ $305 24h
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $308 24h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY FURIA 59¢ $682 26h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Switzerland O/U 5.5 Corners BUY Over 56¢ $811 26h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 50¢ $609 29h
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) BUY FURIA 46¢ $102 29h
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) BUY FURIA 46¢ $406 29h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $507 31h
Exact Score: Ghana 0 - 0 Panama? BUY Yes 30¢ $204 45h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 59¢ $506 2d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 49¢ $203 2d
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 37¢ $306 2d
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 59¢ $607 2d
Exact Score: France 0 - 0 Senegal? BUY Yes 28¢ $204 3d
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 1.5 BUY Over 28¢ $306 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $414 3d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 51¢ $203 3d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 46¢ $102 4d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 45¢ $203 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,284.75 · official $1,284.75 (match) · 255 history records