Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T06:04:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1E 0x1ea7…b884 world 35 markets active 2h ago coverage 459d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$5 (+1%) realized +$5 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate47%16W / 18L
Drawdown19%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$42now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 74% $0
politics 9% +$3
other 7% $0
finance 6% +$1
sports 3% $0
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-9.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 6 +0.4% -9.2% 50% 0% -8.7%
≤90d 13 -1.3% -10.7% 46% 0% -9.3%
all 34 -0.4% -9.9% 47% 6% -8.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.9% 6% -8.7%
10% -18.5% 3% -17.5%
15% -26.4% 3% -25.4%
20% -33.6% 3% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 55% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
88% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +9% → late -10% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.7 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.73 per $1 lost it wins $2.73
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

459d coverage
Net worth$42
Realized+$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses16 / 18
Open positions1
Markets (closed)34 / 35
History coverage459d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown19%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 34 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? No 90¢ 90¢ $42 $42 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 27 $1 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 26 $25 −$1 -3%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 26 $57 +$2 +3%
Will Yair Lapid be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 26 $41 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 26 $40 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 24 $33 +$1 +2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 24 $42 −$1 -2%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 23 $41 $0 +1%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? May 23 $45 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 21 $45 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 21 $3 −$1 -21%
Will Masoud Pezeshkian be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 20 $41 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 19 $5 $0 +2%
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 21 $1 $0 -4%
Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2025 World Series? Dec 13 $2 $0 +0%
Zohran Mamdani gets the most first-choice votes in the 2025 New York C Dec 13 $0 $0 -100%
Will George Tuță be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Jul 22 $0 $0 -50%
Will Trump deport 500,000-750,000- people? Jul 22 $1 +$2 +155%
Will McLaren be the 2025 Constructors Champion? Jun 26 $8 $0 -0%
Will Kim Moon-soo win 2nd place in the South Korean presidential elect Jun 05 $8 +$1 +14%
Will Edi Rama be the next Prime Minister of Albania after the 2025 ele May 21 $2 $0 -16%
Will annual inflation increase by 2.6% in April? May 14 $9 $0 +5%
Will the candidate from the New Reform Party win the South Korean Pres May 11 $17 $0 +0%
Will Trump deport 1,250,000-1,500,000 people? May 11 $9 $0 +0%
Will Robert Sarah be the next pope? May 09 $1 $0 +3%
Will Israel qualify for the Eurovision 2025 grand final? May 09 $5 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 101-1k Gold Cards in 2025? May 08 $7 $0 +0%
Will Péter Erdő be the next pope? May 07 $7 $0 +2%
Will Na Kyung-won be the People's Power Party candidate for president? May 07 $9 $0 +2%
Will MrBeast buy TikTok before July? Apr 19 $9 $0 +0%
Will Alexander Isak be the top goalscorer in the EPL? Apr 18 $9 $0 +0%
Will the LA Clippers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 28 $11 $0 -0%
Liverpool wins the Premier League? Mar 25 $1 $0 -7%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the Eastern Conference? Mar 24 $11 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $42 1h
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab SELL Yes 1¢ $0 26d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 29¢ $24 27d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 29¢ $0 27d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 30¢ $2 27d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 30¢ $22 27d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 49¢ $12 27d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 49¢ $28 27d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 47¢ $4 27d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 46¢ $30 27d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 46¢ $5 27d
Will Yair Lapid be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 99¢ $41 27d
Will Yair Lapid be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 99¢ $41 28d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma SELL No 96¢ $40 28d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma BUY No 96¢ $40 28d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab SELL Yes 1¢ $1 28d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab BUY Yes 1¢ $1 28d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 39¢ $18 28d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 41¢ $4 28d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 40¢ $7 28d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 40¢ $8 28d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL No 87¢ $7 29d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL No 83¢ $23 29d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? BUY No 83¢ $30 29d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? SELL No 86¢ $2 30d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? SELL No 86¢ $39 30d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? BUY No 87¢ $42 30d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? SELL No 97¢ $23 30d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? SELL No 97¢ $18 30d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? BUY No 96¢ $41 30d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $42.25 · official $42.25 (match) · 110 history records