Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T07:37:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1E 0x1ea7…a566 world 77 markets active 1h ago coverage 523d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$8 (-0%) realized −$8 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate42%32W / 44L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$32per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$39now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days+$1
14 days+$2
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 36% +$1
other 24% +$7
politics 18% −$12
sports 11% −$3
economics 7% $0
crypto 3% −$1
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-6.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -0.1% -9.6% 44% 0% -8.8%
≤30d 19 +0.0% -9.5% 47% 0% -9.2%
≤90d 61 +0.6% -9.0% 41% 3% -9.4%
all 76 +3.2% -6.6% 42% 7% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.6% 7% -9.8%
10% -15.5% 5% -18.5%
15% -23.7% 4% -26.3%
20% -31.2% 4% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 40% · top 2 65% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
84% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.58 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

523d coverage
Net worth$39
Realized−$8
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses32 / 44
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)76 / 77
History coverage523d
Avg bet$32
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 76 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No 67¢ 67¢ $33 $33 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 19 $2 $0 -4%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 18 $3 $0 +0%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 18 $23 +$1 +6%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 17 $28 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $3 $0 +5%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 16 $4 $0 -8%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 15 $31 +$1 +2%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $31 $0 -0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $32 $0 -1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 13 $35 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 12 $31 $0 +1%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $5 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 12 $31 $0 -0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $34 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 09 $34 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 07 $71 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 07 $31 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 06 $30 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 06 $37 $0 +0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 18 $4 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 18 $28 −$1 -2%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen May 16 $30 $0 +0%
Bill Clinton divorce by June 30? May 14 $2 $0 +23%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 26 $27 $0 +0%
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? Apr 26 $102 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 25 $69 $0 -0%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 25 $69 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 24 $63 $0 +0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 22 $70 $0 +0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 22 $65 $0 +0%
Will Richard Van De Water win The Bachelorette Season 22? Apr 20 $67 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 20 $5 $0 -1%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 19 $10 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Apr 18 $132 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 18 $63 $0 -0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 17 $17 +$2 +15%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 17 $61 $0 +0%
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 16 $33 $0 +0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 16 $37 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Apr 15 $30 $0 +1%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 12 $61 $0 -0%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 12 $31 $0 +0%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 11 $15 $0 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? Apr 11 $37 $0 +0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 09 $71 $0 -0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom Apr 09 $31 $0 -0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 08 $64 $0 +0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 08 $31 $0 +0%
Netanyahu out by April 30? Apr 07 $35 $0 +1%
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 06 $31 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 67¢ $33 1h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 47h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 47h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 47h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 8¢ $3 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 8¢ $3 2d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 75¢ $25 2d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 71¢ $23 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $29 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $28 3d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 4d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 4d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 4d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 4d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 5d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 5d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 5¢ $4 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 59¢ $32 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 58¢ $31 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 85¢ $31 6d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $31 6d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 92¢ $21 6d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 92¢ $10 6d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 93¢ $32 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 51¢ $2 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 51¢ $13 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 51¢ $20 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 51¢ $35 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $38.83 · official $38.83 (match) · 289 history records