Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T10:56:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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1E 0x1ea7…bcd9 crypto 202 markets active 21h ago coverage 561d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Covers last 561d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$14,336 (+3%) realized +$10,101 · open +$4,235
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate59%113W / 78L
Whale WR62%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2,573per market
Trades / day5.9pace
Fees−$239est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$52,508now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$999
7 days+$15,859
14 days+$25,854
30 days+$30,543
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 34% +$34,676
crypto 31% −$19,538
sports 11% −$8,996
finance 11% +$2,336
politics 8% −$2,665
economics 2% +$3,594
other 2% +$2,858
tech 1% −$365
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 -24.7% -31.8% 50% 25% +27.5%
≤30d 53 -2.3% -11.6% 62% 38% +19.6%
≤90d 81 -0.8% -10.2% 67% 36% +8.7%
all 191 -0.2% -9.7% 59% 32% -8.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.9 tr/day
realistic slip~12%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.7% 32% -8.0%
10% ← realistic here -18.3% 23% -16.8%
15% -26.2% 17% -24.9%
20% -33.5% 14% -32.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +20% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
44% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 62% (≥$3,142) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +7% → late -7% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
12.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$839 vs −$1,132 · ×0.74 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.09 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

561d coverage
Net worth$52,508
Realized+$10,101
Unrealized+$4,235
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses113 / 78
Whale WR (big bets)62%
Est. fees paid−$239
Open positions11
Markets (closed)191 / 202
History coverage561d ⚠
Avg bet$2,573
Trades / day5.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 191 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? No 52¢ 52¢ $20,600 $20,600 +$0 (+0%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 65¢ 96¢ $9,138 $13,428 +$4,290 (+47%)
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $700 in June? No 95¢ 94¢ $6,001 $5,907 −$95 (-2%)
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $770 in June? No 86¢ 95¢ $5,129 $5,666 +$537 (+10%)
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $780 in June? No 97¢ 98¢ $4,126 $4,181 +$55 (+1%)
Will LeBron James play for the Los Angeles Lakers in 2026-27? Yes 66¢ 68¢ $1,152 $1,187 +$35 (+3%)
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? No 52¢ 47¢ $884 $799 −$85 (-10%)
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $710 in June? No 91¢ 81¢ $520 $465 −$54 (-10%)
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $184 in June? No 92¢ 91¢ $160 $158 −$2 (-1%)
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $240 in June? No 94¢ 96¢ $72 $74 +$2 (+3%)
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 14¢ 1¢ $490 $42 −$448 (-91%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Steve Witkoff attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? Jun 21 $93 +$40 +43%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Jun 21 $2,743 +$959 +35%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? Jun 20 $5,649 +$1,343 +24%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 19 $300 −$230 -77%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 19 $364 −$360 -99%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 19 $5,218 +$3,172 +61%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 18, 2026? Jun 19 $1,337 +$8 +1%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 19 $250 +$330 +132%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $770 Week of June 15 2026? Jun 18 $100 $0 +0%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $775 Week of June 15 2026? Jun 18 $37 $0 +0%
Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (LOW) $87.50 Week of June 15 2 Jun 18 $185 +$1 +0%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $765 Week of June 15 2026? Jun 18 $110 +$1 +0%
Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (LOW) $82.50 Week of June 15 2 Jun 18 $100 $0 +0%
Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (LOW) $80 Week of June 15 2026 Jun 18 $100 $0 +0%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 18? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $460 −$460 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 18 $11,850 +$18,040 +152%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 18 $2,283 −$2,073 -91%
Will Bitcoin reach $79,000 on May 1? Jun 18 $1,471 −$1,471 -100%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 16? Jun 18 $1,000 −$1,000 -100%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $2,169 −$2,169 -100%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 18 $548 −$504 -92%
Will Nikola Jokic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Jun 18 $463 −$81 -18%
Will SpaceX's market cap be greater than $2.0T at market close on IPO Jun 18 $85 −$85 -100%
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 18 $67 −$67 -100%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? Jun 18 $103 −$73 -71%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 18 $185 −$59 -32%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 17? Jun 17 $1,524 +$608 +40%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 14 $3,872 +$7,528 +194%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $2,529 +$699 +28%
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 14 $1,359 +$1,628 +120%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Jun 14 $9,436 −$997 -11%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 14 $4,828 +$382 +8%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 13 $7,197 +$791 +11%
Will Karl-Anthony Towns win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 11 $74 −$54 -72%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 10? Jun 10 $14 +$17 +123%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $867 +$878 +101%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 08 $3,990 +$1,285 +32%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 08 $2,697 +$142 +5%
Will Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals 4-0 be the exact series outcome? Jun 08 $18 $0 -1%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 8? Jun 08 $1,002 +$258 +26%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 07 $1,106 +$827 +75%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $550 +$845 +154%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $8,426 +$44 +0%
Ebola case in the US by June 30? Jun 01 $1,546 +$263 +17%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $4,726 +$276 +6%
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31? May 31 $402 −$312 -78%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $800 −$760 -95%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 29 $582 −$247 -42%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 29 $4,491 +$1,086 +24%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 50¢ $10,000 21h
Will LeBron James play for the Los Angeles Lakers in 2026-27? BUY Yes 66¢ $37 29h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 52¢ $270 39h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 52¢ $8 39h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 52¢ $606 39h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 53¢ $10,600 2d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? SELL Yes 66¢ $0 2d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? SELL Yes 66¢ $1 2d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? SELL Yes 66¢ $24 2d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? SELL Yes 66¢ $7 2d
Will Steve Witkoff attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? BUY Yes 70¢ $2 3d
Will Steve Witkoff attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? BUY Yes 70¢ $91 3d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 70¢ $976 3d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 70¢ $137 3d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 70¢ $18 3d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 70¢ $269 3d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 7¢ $70 3d
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $770 in June? BUY No 91¢ $427 3d
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $780 in June? BUY No 97¢ $226 3d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 30¢ $300 3d
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $144 3d
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $220 3d
Will LeBron James play for the Los Angeles Lakers in 2026-27? BUY Yes 66¢ $958 3d
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $770 in June? BUY No 90¢ $68 3d
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $700 in June? BUY No 95¢ $2,380 3d
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $770 in June? BUY No 92¢ $160 3d
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $780 in June? BUY No 98¢ $29 3d
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $780 in June? BUY No 97¢ $292 3d
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $770 in June? BUY No 91¢ $224 3d
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $780 in June? BUY No 97¢ $2,913 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $52,507.53 · official $52,507.59 (match) · 3500 history records