Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T12:57:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1E 0x1ea7…4a14 sports 59 markets active 1h ago coverage 40d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$112 (-7%) realized −$101 · open −$11
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate42%20W / 28L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day1.8pace
Fees−$13est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$162now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$39
7 days+$5
14 days+$43
30 days−$160
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 53% −$77
other 46% −$34
crypto 1% −$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-23.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +1.1% -8.6% 56% 56% -6.3%
≤30d 43 -15.5% -23.6% 42% 42% -27.6%
≤90d 48 -15.5% -23.5% 42% 42% -15.4%
all 48 -15.5% -23.5% 42% 42% -15.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.5% 42% -15.4%
10% -30.8% 40% -23.5%
15% -37.5% 38% -30.9%
20% -43.7% 33% -37.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -21% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$20 vs −$19 · ×1.09 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.78 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

40d coverage
Net worth$162
Realized−$101
Unrealized−$11
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses20 / 28
Est. fees paid−$13
Open positions11
Markets (closed)48 / 59
History coverage40d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day1.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 48 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? No 76¢ 76¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Yes 53¢ 54¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red Sox Boston Red Sox 47¢ 46¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-3%)
Nottingham Open: Viktorija Golubic vs Zeynep Sonmez Viktorija Golubic 57¢ 68¢ $15 $18 +$3 (+18%)
Nottingham Open: Karolina Pliskova vs Caty McNally Karolina Pliskova 71¢ 100¢ $12 $17 +$5 (+42%)
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Cincinnati Reds St. Louis Cardinals 50¢ 38¢ $15 $11 −$4 (-25%)
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Yes 46¢ 48¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+3%)
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Yes 46¢ 46¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Under 56¢ 56¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-1%)
Parma: Sebastian Ofner vs Roberto Carballes Baena Roberto Carballes Baena 40¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Poznan: Facundo Acosta vs Florian Broska Florian Broska 35¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 22 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $20 −$7 -34%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $10 +$11 +109%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $10 +$8 +83%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $20 +$9 +44%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $22 +$18 +79%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 +$3 +29%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $7 −$7 -98%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics: O/U 13.5 Jun 10 $25 +$24 +93%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics Jun 10 $20 +$21 +101%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 10 $15 +$24 +158%
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 7.5 Jun 10 $20 −$20 -99%
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 8.5 Jun 10 $10 −$10 -99%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jun 02 $35 −$35 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? Jun 02 $5 −$5 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Alejandro Tabilo vs Valentin Vacherot May 28 $11 $0 -3%
Phoenix Mercury vs. New York Liberty: O/U 169.5 May 28 $7 +$4 +48%
Hurricanes vs. Canadiens May 28 $30 +$20 +67%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 28 $51 −$50 -98%
Hurricanes vs. Canadiens: O/U 5.5 May 28 $15 −$15 -99%
New York Yankees vs. Kansas City Royals May 28 $8 −$8 -98%
Avalanche vs. Golden Knights May 27 $10 +$10 +97%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Milwaukee Brewers May 26 $10 −$10 -98%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 26 $25 −$25 -98%
Chicago Cubs vs. Pittsburgh Pirates May 26 $20 −$20 -98%
World Championships: Czechia vs. Canada May 26 $25 −$25 -99%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. San Diego Padres May 26 $15 +$25 +165%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 9.5 May 25 $2 −$2 -99%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 25 $30 −$30 -98%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs May 25 $15 +$13 +83%
Texas Rangers vs. Los Angeles Angels May 25 $5 +$5 +90%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 25 $10 −$10 -98%
Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 218.5 May 24 $30 −$30 -99%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 24 $18 +$14 +74%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Team Spirit (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs May 24 $61 +$39 +65%
Will West Ham United FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $15 −$15 -99%
Athletics vs. San Diego Padres May 23 $20 −$20 -99%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks: O/U 215.5 May 21 $20 −$20 -99%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York Yankees May 21 $10 +$15 +146%
Chicago White Sox vs. Seattle Mariners May 21 $20 +$28 +140%
Golden Knights vs. Avalanche May 20 $25 −$25 -99%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-19? May 19 $30 −$30 -99%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 19 $26 +$56 +212%
Partizan vs. KK Crvena Zvezda May 18 $31 −$31 -100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-18? May 18 $502 +$60 +12%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-17? May 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-09? May 09 $61 −$36 -58%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Poznan: Facundo Acosta vs Florian Broska BUY Florian Broska 35¢ $5 1h
Parma: Sebastian Ofner vs Roberto Carballes Baena BUY Roberto Carballes Baena 41¢ $4 1h
Parma: Sebastian Ofner vs Roberto Carballes Baena BUY Roberto Carballes Baena 40¢ $5 1h
Nottingham Open: Karolina Pliskova vs Caty McNally BUY Karolina Pliskova 71¢ $12 1h
Nottingham Open: Viktorija Golubic vs Zeynep Sonmez BUY Viktorija Golubic 57¢ $15 1h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 76¢ $50 1h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 56¢ $7 1h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $20 1h
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 46¢ $10 14h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 46¢ $10 14h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY No 75¢ $10 43h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $10 43h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $10 43h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 69¢ $20 43h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 56¢ $12 43h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 54¢ $10 46h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 54¢ $10 47h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 50¢ $15 2d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Natus Vincere 41¢ $7 3d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 45¢ $15 3d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 77¢ $10 3d
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY Toronto Blue Jays 38¢ $15 8d
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 71¢ $20 8d
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 60¢ $10 8d
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics: O/U 13.5 BUY Under 51¢ $25 8d
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics BUY Athletics 49¢ $20 8d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 29¢ $5 18d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY No 72¢ $20 18d
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 43¢ $51 21d
Hurricanes vs. Canadiens: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 54¢ $15 21d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $162.41 · official $162.41 (match) · 97 history records