Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T08:36:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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1E 0x1ea5…dc51 crypto 1039 markets active 1h ago coverage 195d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 194d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$3,186 (+0%) realized +$3,165 · open +$21
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate93%951W / 70L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown18%max
Avg bet$2,182per market
Trades / day12.4pace
Fees−$30est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$5,087now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$17
7 days+$28
14 days+$86
30 days+$150
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 97% +$2,450
other 2% −$204
weather 0% +$19
tech 0% +$37
sports 0% −$100
world 0% +$52
finance 0% −$4
politics 0% −$1
economics 0% +$1
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-10.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 46 -0.5% -10.0% 98% 7% -9.5%
≤30d 130 -0.1% -9.6% 98% 4% -9.4%
≤90d 407 -14.7% -22.8% 83% 2% -9.5%
all 1021 -1.3% -10.7% 93% 8% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.4 tr/day
realistic slip~14%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.7% 8% -9.4%
10% ← realistic here -19.2% 6% -18.1%
15% -27.0% 5% -26.0%
20% -34.2% 4% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
91% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$3,260) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +9% → late -11% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$12 · ×0.27 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×3.69 per $1 lost it wins $3.69
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

195d coverage
Net worth$5,087
Realized+$3,165
Unrealized+$21
Win rate (resolved)93%
Wins / losses951 / 70
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$30
Open positions18
Markets (closed)1021 / 1039
History coverage195d ⚠
Avg bet$2,182
Trades / day12.4
Drawdown18%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 18 History 1021 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,300 on June 18? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $2,203 $2,204 +$1 (+0%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 18? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $999 $1,000 +$0 (+0%)
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? No 98¢ 98¢ $348 $347 −$1 (-0%)
Predict.fun FDV above $2B one day after launch? No 95¢ 93¢ $286 $279 −$8 (-3%)
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,300 on June 19? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $205 $205 +$0 (+0%)
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? No 96¢ 98¢ $197 $202 +$5 (+2%)
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? No 95¢ 98¢ $189 $196 +$7 (+4%)
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 94¢ 96¢ $188 $192 +$4 (+2%)
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 87¢ 95¢ $174 $191 +$17 (+10%)
Will SpaceX's market cap be less than $1.0T at market close on last trading day of IPO month? No 99¢ 99¢ $96 $96 +$0 (+0%)
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? No 93¢ 91¢ $93 $91 −$2 (-2%)
Puffpaw FDV above $200M one day after launch? No 83¢ 79¢ $50 $47 −$2 (-5%)
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? No 98¢ 99¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Switzerland O/U 0.5 Over 85¢ 84¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-1%)
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? No 94¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+7%)
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? No 96¢ 99¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+3%)
Will Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? No 95¢ 95¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 90¢ 91¢ $4 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 17? Jun 18 $11 $0 +2%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $19 +$1 +5%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $2,997 +$3 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $2,997 +$3 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $1,998 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $1,998 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,200 on June 16? Jun 16 $1,428 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,100 on June 16? Jun 16 $1,644 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $52,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $2,997 +$3 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 15? Jun 15 $58 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C or higher on June 15? Jun 15 $18 +$2 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 15? Jun 15 $20 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C or higher on June 15? Jun 15 $40 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 29°C on June 15? Jun 15 $47 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C or higher on June 15? Jun 15 $50 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 15? Jun 15 $39 −$39 -100%
Will Ethereum reach $2,200 June 8-14? Jun 15 $1,998 +$2 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 June 8-14? Jun 15 $120 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 June 8-14? Jun 15 $19 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,300 June 8-14? Jun 15 $1,998 +$2 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $78,000 June 8-14? Jun 15 $4,071 +$4 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $72,000 June 8-14? Jun 15 $6 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,400 June 8-14? Jun 15 $2,997 +$3 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 June 8-14? Jun 15 $1,139 +$1 +0%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $47 +$3 +7%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,200 on June 13? Jun 13 $100 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,100 on June 13? Jun 13 $1,003 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $50,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $3,996 +$4 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be less than $1,100 on June 13? Jun 13 $96 $0 +0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.2T? Jun 12 $401 +$4 +1%
Will Netflix (NFLX) close at $110-$120 on the final day of trading of Jun 12 $10 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $105 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on June 12? Jun 12 $1,498 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $500 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $70,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $100 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $50,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $1,068 +$2 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 24°C on June 12? Jun 12 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C on June 11? Jun 11 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 28°C on June 11? Jun 11 $8 +$2 +20%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 11? Jun 11 $20 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 11? Jun 11 $44 +$5 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C on June 11? Jun 11 $140 +$2 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $2,997 +$3 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 36°C or higher on June 11? Jun 11 $897 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 11? Jun 11 $38 +$2 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C or higher on June 11? Jun 11 $256 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $200 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $999 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on June 10? Jun 10 $49 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on June 10? Jun 10 $358 +$1 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 BUY No 97¢ $38 1h
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 BUY No 97¢ $5 1h
Will SpaceX's market cap be less than $1.0T at market close on last tr BUY No 99¢ $96 1h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Switzerland O/U 0.5 BUY Over 85¢ $9 1h
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 BUY No 97¢ $4 1h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,300 on June 19? BUY Yes 100¢ $205 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 18? BUY Yes 100¢ $999 17h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 100¢ $2,997 23h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 100¢ $54 23h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 100¢ $2,943 23h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 17? BUY No 97¢ $1 23h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 17? BUY No 98¢ $10 23h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 95¢ $19 23h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,300 on June 18? BUY Yes 100¢ $2,203 23h
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 BUY No 98¢ $135 42h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 100¢ $1,998 2d
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 BUY No 98¢ $47 2d
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 BUY No 98¢ $14 2d
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 BUY No 98¢ $105 2d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,200 on June 16? BUY Yes 100¢ $999 2d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,200 on June 16? BUY Yes 100¢ $429 2d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,100 on June 16? BUY Yes 100¢ $999 2d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,100 on June 16? BUY Yes 100¢ $645 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $52,000 on June 16? BUY Yes 100¢ $1,877 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $52,000 on June 16? BUY Yes 100¢ $1,120 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 16? BUY Yes 100¢ $1,350 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 16? BUY Yes 100¢ $648 2d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $20 2d
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C or higher on June 15? BUY No 89¢ $18 2d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C or higher on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $40 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5,087.17 · official $5,087.17 (match) · 3500 history records