Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:37:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1E 0x1ea5…aa48 sports 320 markets active 17h ago coverage 92d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$62 (-7%) realized −$40 · open −$22
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate29%93W / 225L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day12.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$9now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$16
14 days−$16
30 days−$16
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 56% −$18
sports 38% −$18
world 4% −$26
politics 2% −$2
crypto 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-20.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 -29.8% -36.5% 27% 27% -34.4%
≤30d 15 -29.8% -36.5% 27% 27% -34.4%
≤90d 130 -15.7% -23.7% 18% 16% -24.3%
all 318 -12.0% -20.4% 29% 22% -13.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.4% 22% -13.8%
10% -28.0% 17% -22.0%
15% -35.0% 13% -29.6%
20% -41.4% 9% -36.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -16% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
23% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -19% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.58 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.68 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

92d coverage
Net worth$9
Realized−$40
Unrealized−$22
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses93 / 225
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)318 / 320
History coverage92d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day12.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 318 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-19%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No $21 $1 −$20 (-97%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Spain reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 17 $5 −$1 -14%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $10 +$6 +57%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $1 +$1 +105%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $1 $0 -41%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -74%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $10 +$4 +44%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 11 $1 $0 -28%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 11 $1 $0 -4%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 11 $1 $0 +12%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina Jun 11 $2 $0 -4%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 23 $1 $0 -14%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 23 $1 $0 -25%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 23 $1 $0 -12%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 23 $1 $0 -17%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 23 $1 $0 -8%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 23 $1 $0 +0%
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 23 $2 $0 -10%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 23 $1 $0 -25%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in March? Mar 23 $1 +$1 +73%
Heart of Midlothian FC vs. Dundee FC: O/U 2.5 Mar 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: SV Werder Bremen (-1.5) Mar 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: FC Arouca (-2.5) Mar 21 $0 $0 -38%
Will Heart of Midlothian FC vs. Dundee FC end in a draw? Mar 21 $1 $0 -29%
AC Monza vs. Venezia FC: O/U 4.5 Mar 21 $1 $0 -8%
Bristol City FC vs. West Bromwich Albion FC: O/U 3.5 Mar 21 $1 $0 -25%
Will 1. FC Köln vs. Borussia Mönchengladbach end in a draw? Mar 21 $1 $0 -8%
Toulouse FC vs. FC Lorient: O/U 4.5 Mar 21 $1 $0 -18%
Hull City AFC vs. Sheffield Wednesday FC: O/U 3.5 Mar 21 $1 $0 -5%
Will Bristol City FC win on 2026-03-21? Mar 21 $1 $0 -9%
Will Hull City AFC vs. Sheffield Wednesday FC end in a draw? Mar 21 $1 $0 -14%
FC Andorra vs. SD Eibar: O/U 2.5 Mar 21 $1 $0 -10%
1. FC Heidenheim 1846 vs. Bayer 04 Leverkusen: O/U 4.5 Mar 21 $1 $0 -10%
1. FC Heidenheim 1846 vs. Bayer 04 Leverkusen: O/U 2.5 Mar 21 $1 $0 -6%
Watford FC vs. Leicester City FC: O/U 3.5 Mar 21 $1 $0 -17%
Will Fortuna Sittard vs. FC Twente '65 end in a draw? Mar 21 $1 $0 -5%
Will Palermo FC win on 2026-03-21? Mar 21 $1 $0 -6%
Will Dundee FC win on 2026-03-21? Mar 21 $1 $0 -14%
Will Spezia Calcio win on 2026-03-21? Mar 21 $1 $0 -12%
Spread: Aalesunds FK (-2.5) Mar 21 $1 $0 -18%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 21 $1 $0 -29%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 21 $1 $0 -40%
Will Villarreal win the 2025–26 La Liga? Mar 21 $0 $0 -50%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 21 $2 $0 -25%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 21 $1 $0 -25%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 21 $1 $0 -25%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No $1 17h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No $2 23h
Will Spain reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? SELL Yes 26¢ $4 23h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 19¢ $8 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 19¢ $10 2d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 53¢ $5 4d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 41¢ $5 4d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $5 4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 48¢ $1 5d
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? SELL Yes 27¢ $1 5d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes $0 5d
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? BUY Yes 44¢ $1 5d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 33¢ $1 5d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 68¢ $5 6d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 60¢ $5 6d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $5 6d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 81¢ $5 6d
Will Spain reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY Yes 29¢ $5 6d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 6d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $10 6d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes $1 6d
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes $1 6d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes $1 6d
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina SELL Yes $2 6d
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes $1 75d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes $1 75d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes $1 75d
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes $1 86d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes $1 86d
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes $1 86d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $8.64 · official $8.64 (match) · 1306 history records