Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T05:05:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
1E 0x1ea5…bd08 politics 4 markets active 1h ago coverage 78d
RISKYcopy with care politics specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$30 (-2%) realized −$30 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate33%1W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$481per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$592now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 78d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 66% −$32
other 34% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-13.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d 3 -4.6% -13.6% 33% 0% -11.8%
all 3 -4.6% -13.6% 33% 0% -11.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.6% 0% -11.8%
10% -21.9% 0% -20.3%
15% -29.5% 0% -28.0%
20% -36.4% 0% -35.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
5.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$22 vs −$27 · ×0.82 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.41 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

78d coverage
Net worth$592
Realized−$30
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses1 / 2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)3 / 4
History coverage78d
Avg bet$481
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 3 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will India strike Pakistan by December 31, 2026? Yes 19¢ 19¢ $592 $592 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Mahmoud Abbas out as Palestinian President by June 30? May 22 $353 −$19 -5%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 08 $614 +$22 +4%
Will Janice Boylan win the 2026 Dublin-central by-election? May 01 $294 −$35 -12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will India strike Pakistan by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $60 1h
Will India strike Pakistan by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $61 1h
Will India strike Pakistan by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $70 1h
Will India strike Pakistan by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $68 1h
Will India strike Pakistan by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $67 1h
Will India strike Pakistan by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $57 2h
Will India strike Pakistan by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $76 2h
Will India strike Pakistan by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $66 2h
Will India strike Pakistan by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $66 2h
Will India strike Pakistan by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $61 3h
Will India strike Pakistan by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $61 3h
Will India strike Pakistan by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $10 3h
Will India strike Pakistan by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $10 3h
Mahmoud Abbas out as Palestinian President by June 30? SELL No 90¢ $334 37d
Mahmoud Abbas out as Palestinian President by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $353 44d
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 75¢ $636 52d
Will Janice Boylan win the 2026 Dublin-central by-election? SELL No 78¢ $259 58d
Will Janice Boylan win the 2026 Dublin-central by-election? BUY No 87¢ $294 69d
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 73¢ $154 77d
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 73¢ $39 77d
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 73¢ $142 77d
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 73¢ $91 77d
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 73¢ $10 77d
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 73¢ $85 77d
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 73¢ $92 77d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $591.85 · official $591.85 (match) · 53 history records